Earnings are not the scarce resource. The price paid for them is.
Strategy composite, TWRR net of fees. Your own account may differ because of your investment date, flows and fee structure; your statement is the record for your account.
Earnings are not the scarce resource. The price paid for them is.
Strategy composite, TWRR net of fees. Your own account may differ because of your investment date, flows and fee structure; your statement is the record for your account.
August confirmed the June-quarter earnings recovery is real and broad-based — profit growth for the broader market crossed 20% year-on-year for the first time in eight quarters, energy aside. The more interesting question is where that growth is already priced in: consensus now expects small-caps to repeat a delivery rate only four in ten managed last year. The RBI's currency-support scheme has done its job on the rupee, but has left banks managing a liquidity surplus that coexists, awkwardly, with tighter financial conditions. Foreign investors kept selling banks even as fundamentals held up — a reminder that flows and fundamentals do not always agree in the short run. To us, that is an opportunity.
Earnings delivered, but not equally. The June-quarter earnings season has closed, and the aggregate numbers are strong. Profit growth for the broader listed market, excluding energy, crossed 20% year-on-year for the first time in eight quarters. Energy alone dragged the headline lower, with profits there down 63% year-on-year — a decline sharp enough to mask what was, elsewhere, a genuinely broad-based recovery rather than a narrow, sector-driven beat.
The currency call worked, liquidity is the next question. Earlier in the year we flagged the RBI's decision to subsidise long-tenor NRI dollar deposits as the fastest available lever to shore up the balance of payments, at a time when the external account was the more pressing concern. That call has played out broadly as expected, and it is worth stating plainly when a policy call works rather than only when one does not.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 4Y | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | SI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMS | 1.64% | 5.96% | 2.01% | 11.38% | 8.92% | 15.42% | 20.04% | 18.07% | 24.35% | 20.31% | 20.77% |
| BSE 500 TRI | -0.09% | 3.86% | 1.43% | 4.72% | -0.11% | 12.09% | 11.90% | 10.91% | 15.82% | 13.32% | 14.09% |
| Excess (pp) | +1.73 | +2.10 | +0.58 | +6.66 | +9.03 | +3.33 | +8.14 | +7.16 | +8.53 | +6.99 | +6.68 |
Growth of 100 from 2024-02: SEBI PMR monthly TWRR net of fees, chained. The full since-inception NAV series is not in the release package, so this starts where SEBI's monthly filings start.
Banks: flow vs fundamentals conundrum. Banking earnings drew an odd market reaction this quarter, and the reaction is worth unpacking rather than taking at face value. Net interest margins compressed across most large lenders — the contraction was visible almost everywhere, not confined to one or two names — and the stocks sold off sharply on the print. Sector profits nonetheless grew 25% year-on-year on an aggregate basis.
Flows still deciding, not fundamentals. Foreign investors sold close to $14bn of Indian equities in the secondary market during the June quarter, continuing a pattern that has held for much of the year rather than marking a new turn. Domestic institutions absorbed more than that — roughly $23bn of net buying over the same three months — and did so comfortably.
| Largest August reference price moves | 1M |
|---|---|
| Indo-MIM | +43.8% |
| Indegene | +4.5% |
| Aurobindo Pharma | +3.2% |
| One 97 Communications | +1.9% |
| Shriram Finance | −10.6% |
| Kaynes Technology India | −10.9% |
| Max Financial Services | −11.0% |
| Dalmia Bharat | −11.3% |
Rank movements are weight changes, not trades; the package has no transaction data.
Our positioning this quarter reflects the same distinction that runs through the results season as a whole: where earnings are real, and where the price has already moved ahead of them. The portfolio's tilt toward large and mid-caps, with the small-cap allocation kept selective rather than broad-based, is a direct expression of that discipline rather than a defensive retreat from the smaller end of the market.
Financial services remains the portfolio's largest sector weight, and this quarter's results did nothing to change that view. Margin compression made the headlines and drove the sell-off; credit growth, asset quality and the widening gap between private and public-sector profitability did the more durable work underneath, largely unremarked.
We are not treating the recent foreign selling of banks, or the broader shift in foreign ownership, as a signal to act on. Flows have dominated fundamentals for stretches of this cycle before, and they will again before it is over. The portfolio is built to be right about the earnings, not to time the marginal buyer.
The earnings floor from this results season is broader than the headline number alone suggests. Whether the market continues to pay up for that breadth, particularly further down the market-cap curve, is the question we are watching most closely into the next quarter.
Bloomberg for indices; Buoyant Capital for portfolio data, as at 31 August 2026. Data is for the Buoyant Opportunities PMS (Discretionary), inception 31 May 2016, benchmarked to BSE 500 TRI as prescribed by APMI. Returns up to 12 months are absolute; beyond 12 months annualised (TWRR). Performance is audited annually.
The performance figures shown are the aggregate time-weighted returns of all client portfolios under the Buoyant Opportunities Investment Approach. They are net of all fees and expenses, including indirect taxes and statutory levies such as GST on fees, STT, stamp duty and exchange charges. They are before income tax on capital gains and dividends. The performance of your portfolio may vary from that of other investors and from the aggregate performance of the Investment Approach because of (i) the timing of your inflows and outflows of funds, and (ii) differences in portfolio composition arising from your investment date, applicable fee structure, client-specific restrictions and other constraints. Your own returns are reported to you in your periodic account statements. Rolling-period statistics are calculated from the same series and are not separately audited. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Information is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to make investments with Buoyant Capital ("BCPL"). Certain information is based on third-party sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified; BCPL makes no express warranty as to completeness or accuracy. Investors should read the Disclosure Document and the Client Agreement, including the fee schedule and risk factors, before investing. SEBI Registration Nos: INP000005000 (PMS), IN/AIF3/22-23/1125 (AIF).