What happened, how it compared, what changed, why we still own it. Every number carries its source.
Earnings are not the scarce resource. The price paid for them is.
Strategy composite, TWRR net of fees. Your own account may differ because of your investment date, flows and fee structure; your statement is the record for your account.
August confirmed the June-quarter earnings recovery is real and broad-based — profit growth for the broader market crossed 20% year-on-year for the first time in eight quarters, energy aside. The more interesting question is where that growth is already priced in: consensus now expects small-caps to repeat a delivery rate only four in ten managed last year. The RBI's currency-support scheme has done its job on the rupee, but has left banks managing a liquidity surplus that coexists, awkwardly, with tighter financial conditions. Foreign investors kept selling banks even as fundamentals held up — a reminder that flows and fundamentals do not always agree in the short run. To us, that is an opportunity.
Earnings delivered, but not equally. The June-quarter earnings season has closed, and the aggregate numbers are strong. Profit growth for the broader listed market, excluding energy, crossed 20% year-on-year for the first time in eight quarters. Energy alone dragged the headline lower, with profits there down 63% year-on-year — a decline sharp enough to mask what was, elsewhere, a genuinely broad-based recovery rather than a narrow, sector-driven beat.
The currency call worked, liquidity is the next question. Earlier in the year we flagged the RBI's decision to subsidise long-tenor NRI dollar deposits as the fastest available lever to shore up the balance of payments, at a time when the external account was the more pressing concern. That call has played out broadly as expected, and it is worth stating plainly when a policy call works rather than only when one does not.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 4Y | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | SI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMS | 1.64% | 5.96% | 2.01% | 11.38% | 8.92% | 15.42% | 20.04% | 18.07% | 24.35% | 20.31% | 20.77% |
| BSE 500 TRI | -0.09% | 3.86% | 1.43% | 4.72% | -0.11% | 12.09% | 11.90% | 10.91% | 15.82% | 13.32% | 14.09% |
| Excess (pp) | +1.73 | +2.10 | +0.58 | +6.66 | +9.03 | +3.33 | +8.14 | +7.16 | +8.53 | +6.99 | +6.68 |
Growth of 100 from 2024-02: SEBI PMR monthly TWRR net of fees, chained. The full since-inception NAV series is not in the release package, so this starts where SEBI's monthly filings start.
Banks: flow vs fundamentals conundrum. Banking earnings drew an odd market reaction this quarter, and the reaction is worth unpacking rather than taking at face value. Net interest margins compressed across most large lenders — the contraction was visible almost everywhere, not confined to one or two names — and the stocks sold off sharply on the print. Sector profits nonetheless grew 25% year-on-year on an aggregate basis.
Flows still deciding, not fundamentals. Foreign investors sold close to $14bn of Indian equities in the secondary market during the June quarter, continuing a pattern that has held for much of the year rather than marking a new turn. Domestic institutions absorbed more than that — roughly $23bn of net buying over the same three months — and did so comfortably.
| Largest August reference price moves | 1M |
|---|---|
| Indo-MIM | +43.8% |
| Indegene | +4.5% |
| Aurobindo Pharma | +3.2% |
| One 97 Communications | +1.9% |
| Shriram Finance | −10.6% |
| Kaynes Technology India | −10.9% |
| Max Financial Services | −11.0% |
| Dalmia Bharat | −11.3% |
Rank movements are weight changes, not trades; the package has no transaction data.
Our positioning this quarter reflects the same distinction that runs through the results season as a whole: where earnings are real, and where the price has already moved ahead of them. The portfolio's tilt toward large and mid-caps, with the small-cap allocation kept selective rather than broad-based, is a direct expression of that discipline rather than a defensive retreat from the smaller end of the market.
Financial services remains the portfolio's largest sector weight, and this quarter's results did nothing to change that view. Margin compression made the headlines and drove the sell-off; credit growth, asset quality and the widening gap between private and public-sector profitability did the more durable work underneath, largely unremarked.
We are not treating the recent foreign selling of banks, or the broader shift in foreign ownership, as a signal to act on. Flows have dominated fundamentals for stretches of this cycle before, and they will again before it is over. The portfolio is built to be right about the earnings, not to time the marginal buyer.
The earnings floor from this results season is broader than the headline number alone suggests. Whether the market continues to pay up for that breadth, particularly further down the market-cap curve, is the question we are watching most closely into the next quarter.
Bloomberg for indices; Buoyant Capital for portfolio data, as at 31 August 2026. Data is for the Buoyant Opportunities PMS (Discretionary), inception 31 May 2016, benchmarked to BSE 500 TRI as prescribed by APMI. Returns up to 12 months are absolute; beyond 12 months annualised (TWRR). Performance is audited annually.
The performance figures shown are the aggregate time-weighted returns of all client portfolios under the Buoyant Opportunities Investment Approach. They are net of all fees and expenses, including indirect taxes and statutory levies such as GST on fees, STT, stamp duty and exchange charges. They are before income tax on capital gains and dividends. The performance of your portfolio may vary from that of other investors and from the aggregate performance of the Investment Approach because of (i) the timing of your inflows and outflows of funds, and (ii) differences in portfolio composition arising from your investment date, applicable fee structure, client-specific restrictions and other constraints. Your own returns are reported to you in your periodic account statements. Rolling-period statistics are calculated from the same series and are not separately audited. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Information is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to make investments with Buoyant Capital ("BCPL"). Certain information is based on third-party sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified; BCPL makes no express warranty as to completeness or accuracy. Investors should read the Disclosure Document and the Client Agreement, including the fee schedule and risk factors, before investing. SEBI Registration Nos: INP000005000 (PMS), IN/AIF3/22-23/1125 (AIF).
One multi-cap, sector-agnostic Indian equity strategy that changes its risk with the cycle. Top-down we decide whether to be aggressive or defensive; that sets how much sits in core — predictable, leading businesses — versus satellite — cyclicals, turnarounds, value. Bottom-up, analysts pick the stocks inside that frame. We have switched stance only four times in ten years. On scale: today 55% of the book is in large caps, and our biggest positions are in some of the largest companies in India — a 7% position in ICICI Bank is about 0.14% of its market cap. The alpha over ten years has come mostly from selection in liquid names — SBI in 2017, ICICI in 2018, Axis through its credit-cost trough — not from illiquid micro caps. The part of the book where size matters is the small-cap sleeve, and that is exactly where we are already selective. If capacity ever constrains the strategy, we would rather say so than launch a second product to absorb flows.
WHY IT HOLDS: The framework is market-cap agnostic by design, so the scalable engine (large-cap core, liquid financials) is not an accident of size — it is where the valuation margin of safety sits today. Small caps are 16.3% of the book (~₹3,400 cr at ₹21,000 cr AUM) spread across ~15 names; that is where impact cost lives, and why down-cap exposure is name-by-name. A distributor-level diligence answer should be quantitative: free float, average daily volume, position size, days-to-liquidate. Offer the liquidity file rather than assurances. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Large cap 55.1% · Mid cap 19.4% · Small cap 16.3% · Cash 9.2%. ICICI Bank 7.0% weight, mkt cap ₹10,28,910 cr, held ≈ 0.14% of mcap; Axis Bank 6.0%, ₹3,82,356 cr, 0.33%; Bharti Airtel 4.0%, ₹12,21,106 cr, 0.07%; State Bank of India 4.0%, ₹9,46,415 cr, 0.09%. (“Held ≈ % of mcap” assumes the PMS weight applied to ₹21,000 cr of strategy AUM; illustrative.) DON’T SAY: “Size doesn’t matter.” It does at the small-cap end; say where it matters and how it is managed.
Because one strategy is the honest version of what we do. If you run five products, one of them is always doing well and you can always show a client something that worked — that is good for the manager, not the investor. We put the whole research team, and our own money, behind a single portfolio. The flexibility other houses get from multiple products, we get inside the portfolio: it is multi-cap and sector-agnostic, and it moves between aggressive and defensive. You don’t have to switch from our large-cap fund to our small-cap fund at the right moment — that decision is our job, and it is made inside the one strategy you own.
WHY IT HOLDS: Full resource alignment. Ten research and dealing professionals, four quant/product, three risk — all pointed at one book. No internal competition for ideas or for the founders’ attention. No conflicts. No question of which product gets the best idea or the allocation in a hot IPO. Accountability. One ten-year track record you can judge; nothing to hide behind. The firm’s stated principle is “no product proliferation, consistent investment style.” Skin in the game. Founders, directors and family invest in the same strategy. The AIF schemes (I–IV) are not different strategies; they are the same portfolio, and a new scheme opens only when the previous one nears its investor cap. THE COMPARISON IN ONE PICTURE — Multi-product house vs Buoyant: Client must choose and time large / mid / small / thematic → Manager moves across caps and sectors inside one book. Best ideas split across mandates → Every idea competes for one portfolio. Something always “worked” → One record, judged whole. Manager’s money often elsewhere → Founders invested in the same strategy. 1 strategy, 2 wrappers (PMS, Cat-III AIF) · 10 yrs one unbroken, audited record. IF PUSHED: “What if I want a pure small-cap allocation?” — “Then we are not the right manager for that slice, and we would rather tell you that than sell you something we don’t believe in.”
We don’t manage to an index target, so I won’t give you a Nifty number. Here is how we think about it. The broad market has given almost nothing for two and a half years — the Nifty is still below its September-2024 peak — while earnings kept growing, so valuations have come down to reasonable. The June quarter was the first broad-based beat in two years: large caps grew about 20% excluding OMC losses, mid caps about 30%, small caps 24%, and FY27–28 estimates are being upgraded rather than cut. That is why we moved to an aggressive stance in March. Over the next 18–24 months we expect returns to come from earnings, not from multiples going up — call it earnings growth, give or take. The risks are known and external: crude near $95–100, gas availability, the monsoon, and the long end of the rate curve. So: constructive, positioned in financials, consumption and healthcare — and deliberately not in the crowded trades.
WHY IT HOLDS: Buoyant’s published stance: “constructive”; “the earnings floor has held”; “after two and a half years of no returns from the broad market, we expect that to change over the next two years.” Flows are structural: domestic institutions absorbed all FPI selling in H1-2026 ($50 bn deployed vs $29 bn out) and now own more of India than FIIs. FIIs turned net buyers in July. What would change the view: crude sustained $30 higher (≈1.4 pts inflation, 6–7% profit drag), a failed monsoon feeding food inflation, or a long-end yield spike — that is a multiples problem even if earnings hold. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: June-quarter earnings growth — large caps 20% (ex-OMC losses), mid caps 30%, small caps 24% (Buoyant’s Aug-2026 note). Nifty 50 net profit +11% YoY with half the index reported (factsheet). Nifty 50 (2 Sep 2026) ~23,900. Nifty return FY26 −5.05%. Brent crude ~$97/bbl. Repo / 10-yr G-sec 5.25% / ~6.7–6.8%. Headline / core CPI (Jul-26) 4.45% / ~4.3%. DON’T SAY: A level or a date. “Constructive on earnings, cautious on multiples, positioned differently” is the whole answer.
Because that is where the margin of safety is today — not because we are a large-cap fund. The strategy is market-cap agnostic; our large-cap share has swung widely over the decade depending on the stance. Here is the arithmetic. From the highs, large caps fell 17%, mid caps 24%, small caps 27%, micro caps 44% — but small and mid caps started from far richer valuations, and virtually all the new retail money is crowded there; 82% of demat accounts were opened after COVID. Earnings down-cap are excellent — mid caps grew 30% last quarter — but we are paying for that growth twice over. Over ten-year rolling periods, large and small caps have returned roughly the same, about 12–13% a year; what differs is how much you lose on the way. So we hold 55% in large caps, 35% in mid and small, and we are adding down-cap name by name as prices allow. When the valuation pyramid rights itself, the mix will change — that is the whole point of the framework.
WHY IT HOLDS: Published logic: “large caps carry the better margin of safety today; if we find great ideas down-cap, we will keep dialling in selectively.” Buoyant’s own history shows the mix is a stance output: the factsheet’s market-cap chart moves materially between the Jun-20 aggressive phase and the defensive years. 36% of the book is already mid and small — this is not a large-cap-only portfolio. Names like Kaynes, Ramkrishna Forgings, Campus, PVR Inox, Indegene are down-cap conviction positions. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Fall from highs — Large 17% · Mid 24% · Small 27% · Micro 44%. Rolling avg return, Large-cap index vs Small-cap index: 5-year rolling 12.4% vs 13.3%; 10-year rolling 12.0% vs 13.0%; worst 3-yr window −12% vs −49%. Source: Buoyant deck (ACE Equity, since 1992). DON’T SAY: “Small caps are dangerous.” Say: “small caps are expensive and crowded right now — we own the ones where price still makes sense.”
There are two ways to pay us. A flat fee of about 2% a year, or a lower fixed fee of about 1% plus a fifth of the profits above an 8% hurdle, with a high-water mark — so you only share profits on gains you have actually made, and only above 8% a year. No entry load, no exit load, no lock-in. [Confirm the current numbers from the disclosure document before quoting.] On bringing it down — two honest points. First, every return number we show you is after fees: 20.8% net against 14.2% for the index. The fee has been paid and the alpha is still six and a half points a year. Second, the fee funds an 84-person firm with ten research professionals pointed at one portfolio; the choice is between a cheaper fee and a thinner research engine, and we think you are better served by the engine. If you prefer to pay mostly for outcomes, the performance option is designed exactly for that.
WHY IT HOLDS: The performance-fee option aligns interests: in a flat year you pay ~1%; the manager earns more only when you earn more than 8%. The right comparison is fee versus net alpha, not fee versus zero. A low-cost index fund is a legitimate alternative — for a client who does not want active risk allocation, say so. Direct onboarding (without a distributor) is available to every investor and is disclosed on every document. WHAT YOU KEEP, AT DIFFERENT GROSS RETURNS (ILLUSTRATIVE): A: ~2% fixed vs B: ~1% + 20% above 8% hurdle — at 6% gross: 4.0% / 5.0%; 10% gross: 8.0% / 8.8%; 15% gross: 13.0% / 12.8%; 20% gross: 18.0% / 16.8%; 25% gross: 23.0% / 20.8%. Net of the two fee options only; before taxes, brokerage and other expenses; hurdle 8% simple, one-year period, high-water mark not binding. Fee levels are as reported in public PMS comparisons — verify against the current PMS disclosure document / AIF PPM before quoting. DON’T SAY: A discount, a special rate, or “I’ll check if we can do better”. Fees are as per the agreement; changes are a firm decision, not a desk decision.
Not owning a stock isn’t a negative view on it — it is an allocation decision, and we own every zero weight as consciously as every position. Three reasons. First, we already express the theme we most want from Reliance — telecom tariff repair — through Bharti Airtel, which is our fifth-largest position and a cleaner, single-business way to own it. Second, the rest of Reliance is a set of businesses in different cycles — refining and petrochemicals, retail, new energy — valued on a sum-of-parts, and we could not underwrite that with the confidence we have in our financials and consumption names at today’s prices. Third, being benchmark-agnostic is where our alpha has come from: we stayed out of HDFC Bank and Kotak at five times book when they were 40% of the bank index, and the arithmetic worked. We benchmark ourselves to the BSE 500, not to the Nifty’s largest weight.
WHY IT HOLDS: The published record shows alpha from not hugging the largest index names (HDFC Bank / Kotak example in the August note). The portfolio has zero Reliance and 4.0% Bharti Airtel (large-cap, satellite “turnaround”), which lets you frame the answer as a positive choice, not an omission. Conglomerate valuation depends on capital-allocation outcomes (new-energy capex, retail/telecom listings) that sit outside the earnings-and-price arithmetic the strategy relies on. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Bharti Airtel 4.0% (Large cap · Turnaround); Reliance Industries 0.0% (Not held); HDFC Bank 1.8% (Large cap · Core (small)); Kotak Mahindra Bank 0.0% (Not held). Airtel FY27e PE 43×, FY28e 30×; ROE rising from 21% to 23% (portfolio file). Reliance and Kotak not in the July-2026 PMS file. FLAG — ALIGN BEFORE USE: The reasons above are a suggested framing consistent with the strategy’s published logic; the source materials do not contain a stated Reliance view. Confirm the investment team’s current thesis before using in a meeting, and never imply a negative view of the company. DON’T SAY: “We missed it” or “we don’t like the group.” Say “we chose to express the theme elsewhere.”
Banks are 21% of the book, and financials as a whole about 36% — lenders, insurers and a little fintech. It is our largest exposure for a simple reason: it is the one place where the fundamentals and the price disagree. All four cycles that matter for a bank are turning the right way at once — deposit growth 19%, corporate bond issuance down 18% so borrowing is migrating back to banks, loan growth at a three-year high excluding the HDFC merger, margins improving, asset quality benign. And yet valuations are cheap, for one mechanical reason: foreign investors are selling, and they can only sell what they own — six of their ten largest holdings are banks. Over ten years, earnings growth and share-price growth converge. We can’t tell you the month the narrative turns; we can tell you the arithmetic is on our side. And note: our returns from financials have come from picking the right franchises, not from the bank index — SBI in 2017, ICICI in 2018, Axis through its credit-cost trough, plus Shriram and Bajaj Finance.
WHY IT HOLDS: Financials is the largest sector of every broad Indian index; 36% is a conviction overweight, not a single-factor bet — banks, NBFCs and insurers have different rate and funding sensitivities. Selection, not index: only 1.8% in HDFC Bank, none in Kotak. The bank index has gone sideways; the chosen names have not. Insurance keeps the most of every rupee of household financial savings at the cheapest valuation. ICICI Lombard took a ~10% hit on the Supreme Court third-party ruling — acknowledge it; the ₹60–70k crore market will return in another form. Risks to name yourself: deposit competition (credit-deposit ratio ~82.5%), the RBI’s draft curbs on NBFC revolving credit (Bajaj Finance ~13–15% of AUM in flexi loans; final rules pending after 28 Aug), a fresh asset-quality cycle. FINANCIALS BY SEGMENT, PMS: Banking 21.1% · Insurance 7.5% · NBFC 7.3%. ICICI Bank 7.0% (FY27E PE 20.8×, FY28E ROE 16.1%); Axis Bank 6.0% (15.9×, 13.9%); State Bank of India 4.0% (12.2×, 14.5%); Shriram Finance 3.5% (21.4×, 14.4%); Bajaj Finance 3.5% (37.5×, 20.5%); ICICI Lombard 3.1% (30.0×, 15.8%); Max Financial 2.9% (—, 18.9%). DON’T SAY: “Banks always do well when the economy grows.” Say “fundamentals and price disagree; that gap is the opportunity.”
No — and the portfolio proves it. Core is about the nature of the business: predictable cash flows, sensible reinvestment, an industry leader. Satellite is about the nature of the thesis: a cyclical whose earnings swing, a turnaround where a disruption is ending, a value name priced below what it is worth, or a challenger where the leader is too expensive. Bharti Airtel is one of the largest companies in India and it sits in satellite as a turnaround. Kaynes is a small cap and it sits in core. ICICI Lombard is a mid cap in the cyclical bucket. So when we say ‘aggressive means more satellite’, we mean more thesis-driven risk — not simply more small caps. In practice the two do overlap: cheap, unloved, recovering businesses are more often found down-cap. But the sorting rule is the thesis, and every satellite position has a date by which the thesis should be visible in the numbers.
WHY IT HOLDS: Buoyant’s framework defines core by cash flows, reinvestment and leadership; satellite by four buckets — cyclical, turnaround, value, challenger. Today: core 60.8% (69.9% incl. cash); satellite 30.1% = cyclical 9.1 + turnaround 11.8 + value 9.2. Anticipate the sharp follow-up — “you turned aggressive in March but core is still 70%?” SAME STOCK, DIFFERENT AXES: Bharti Airtel — Large — SATELLITE · TURNAROUND; ICICI Lombard — Mid — SATELLITE · CYCLICAL; Dalmia Bharat — Mid — SATELLITE · VALUE; Kaynes Technology — Small — CORE; Campus Activewear — Small — CORE; ICICI Bank — Large — CORE. IF ASKED: “Aggressive since March, yet core is still ~70%?” — “A stance change is a direction of travel, not an overnight flip. Since March, satellite has risen, beta has moved from ~0.8 to ~0.95, and cash is being deployed as ideas clear the bar. We also express ‘aggressive’ inside core — for example, a heavier tilt to higher-beta financials.”
On IT, we think the work stays and the people don’t. Legacy systems still need to be run and reconciled, but AI means far fewer engineers are needed to do it — so revenue can hold while headcount and pricing compress. We put a floor on the sector at about 12 times earnings — that is what a services firm is worth with zero terminal growth, all profits paid out and an 8% required yield — and we see no case above 20 times. The sector fell from about 30 towards that floor, so we bought a small dip; large-cap IT services is well under 1% of the book. It is a corridor of uncertainty, not a conviction. On consumption — this is the question everyone asks and the arithmetic surprises people. India’s entire IT salary bill is about ₹6 lakh crore, roughly 1.7% of GDP. Over the past two years, state governments have transferred almost exactly that amount into household hands through welfare schemes — the transfer bill of the sixteen election-bound states now exceeds their capex bill. So even if the IT salary pool shrinks at the margin, a flow of the same size has already arrived on the other side, and it is landing with households that spend it on staples, not on premium apartments. That is why our consumption is mass-market — HUL, Britannia, DMart, Varun Beverages, Campus — not the IT-salary-funded premium end.” THE TWO ₹6 LAKH CRORE FLOWS: State welfare transfers to households (est.) ≈ ₹6 lakh cr; India’s entire IT salary bill (approx.) ≈ ₹6 lakh cr. Both ≈ 1.7% of GDP. Source: Buoyant analysis of 16 state budgets (Aug-2026 note). WHAT THE IT SLOWDOWN ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE: Top-5 IT firms cut net headcount by ~7,000 in FY26 versus adding 12,000 the year before; gross hiring fell to ~170,000 from a ~230,000 average. TCS announced a ~2% (~12,000) reduction. The June-2026 sell-off: Nifty IT fell ~6% in a day after Accenture cut guidance; Infosys and TCS hit multi-year lows. Sector ~5 million employed; the hit is concentrated in a few cities and in premium discretionary — housing, cars, travel. Portfolio exposure: Infosys 0.7%. The factsheet’s 6.5% “IT” bucket is mostly Kaynes (EMS), Paytm (fintech) and Indegene (health-tech).
DON’T SAY: “AI won’t affect Indian IT.” It will — say where the floor is and why we sized it small.
We read them, but we don’t invest on them. The June-quarter print was 7.8% real and about 10.3% nominal, against an RBI expectation of 7%, and FY26 came in at 7.4–7.7% depending on which official estimate you use — we quote both rather than averaging them. Three things matter more to us than the headline. First, nominal growth, because earnings are nominal — 10% nominal with 4–5% inflation is a much healthier mix than the 8% nominal we had a year ago. Second, the indicators that lead earnings rather than lag them: GST collections, credit growth, advance tax, e-way bills — all of which are consistent with growth north of 6.5%, and none of which said the economy was in trouble even when the market did. Third, the gaps: tax buoyancy has been weak at about 0.6 times, which tells you nominal activity was softer than the headline suggested through FY26. GDP data gets revised; the cash flows of the companies we own don’t. So our view is: the economy is resilient, the earnings floor has held, and the 18-month question is the macro — crude, monsoon, rates — not GDP.
WHY IT HOLDS: Factsheet language: “credit growth, GST collections and industrial activity remain consistent with growth north of 6.5%”; “evidence of earnings resilience is not the same as evidence that the macro environment has turned.” Buoyant’s macro discipline: quote both official estimates; separate nominal from real; watch advance tax as an earnings lead indicator; do not average inconsistent series. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Real GDP, Q1 FY27 (Apr–Jun 2026) 7.8%; Nominal GDP, Q1 FY27 ~10.3%; Real GDP FY26 (PE / FAE) 7.7% / 7.4%; RBI FY27 projection 6.7%; Non-food credit growth (Jun-26) 18.3%; Tax buoyancy 0.6×; Centre fiscal deficit / combined debt 4.4% / 84.5% of GDP; Current account −0.6% of GDP. Q1 FY27 data released 31 Aug 2026 (MoSPI). FY26 estimates per Buoyant macro cheat-sheet. DON’T SAY: “The numbers are fudged.” Say “we triangulate with indicators that can’t be revised — GST, credit, advance tax.”