NSE: BHARTIARTL· TelecomCore · Aug 26Large cap
Bharti Airtel
Turnaround: ARPU leader, deleveraging
- Last close
- ₹1,771.20
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- 0.0% · −5.9%
- price-only
- Weight
- 4.0%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 4
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p60
What the business is
Approved description
India's second-largest mobile operator (491.8 mn India subscribers, 680.9 mn including Africa at Jun-26) with the highest private-operator ARPU (Rs 264 vs Jio Rs 215.6 and Vi Rs 177 in Q1FY27). Also runs home broadband, DTH, enterprise/data-centre (Nxtra) businesses, consolidates Indus Towers, and owns 79%+ of Airtel Africa (14 countries). India mobile is ~73% of revenue; consolidated EBITDA margin is 57.4% and India margin 60.1%.
Why we own it · 5 approved reasons
- 01ARPU compounding without a headline hike: ARPU Rs 264 in Q1FY27 (+5.6% YoY) from mix (postpaid base >30 mn, 80% smartphone base, 5G bundling) plus Aug-2026 withdrawal of Rs 299-649 1.5-2GB/day plans affecting ~35% of base (128 mn users); JM sees +Rs 5-6 ARPU, Morgan Stanley +Rs 8-12. Every Rs 5 ARPU = ~Rs 1,200 cr (~1%) wireless EBITDA.
- 02Deleveraging is the 'turnaround': net debt fell 35% YoY to Rs 81,852 cr at Jun-26 (gearing 1.2x per broker note) versus Rs 1.95 lakh cr gross borrowings at Mar-26 on screener; Q1 FCF after leases Rs 16,500 cr exceeded capex Rs 13,386 cr, so ROCE has expanded to 17.6-18% (FY26) from low-teens and FY27e ROE per Buoyant is 21.4%.
- 03Operating leverage: consolidated EBITDA margin 57.4% (India 60.1%) with FY26 EBITDA +37% (Rs 1,16,514 cr) on revenue +22%; India capex Rs 9,698 cr/qtr is now flat-to-down as 5G rollout matures.
- 04Optionality on a 2026-27 industry tariff hike: analysts (Morgan Stanley Dec-25: 16-20%; MOFSL Jun-26: ~15% around Q2FY27) expect the next round ~2 years after July-2024; Airtel ARPU would move toward Rs 300+.
- 05Africa is EPS-accretive: stake in Airtel Africa raised to >79% via share swap in Q1FY27; Africa revenue growth (constant currency) plus 12.5% group subscriber growth diversify the India tariff cycle.
Price
Reference close, with results-period markers
Close as of 29 Sept 2026
- 1Q Sep-25 end · 30 Sept 2025
- 2Q Dec-25 end · 31 Dec 2025
- 3Q Mar-26 end · 31 Mar 2026
- 4Q Jun-26 end · 30 Jun 2026
Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution). Price-only series (split-adjusted; dividends excluded). Gaps are non-trading days.
1D
0.0%
28 Sept 2026
1W
−2.5%
22 Sept 2026
1M
−5.9%
28 Aug 2026
3M
−3.8%
29 Jun 2026
6M
−3.9%
27 Mar 2026
1Y
−6.9%
29 Sept 2025
Buoyant Screener
Quality score, technicals and Buoyant Score
Computing the scorecard…
Results centre
Latest quarter · Q Jun-26
| Line (₹ cr) | Q Jun-26 | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 58,539 | +18.3% | +5.7% |
| Operating Profit | 33,303 | +19.6% | +5.8% |
| Net Profit | 8,167 | +37.3% | +11.5% |
Implication for thesisBroadly unchanged · per 8 Sep 2026 reviewQ1FY27 (Jun-26): revenue 58,539 (+18.4% YoY), PAT 8,167 (+37.3%)
Reported vs internal estimate: internal quarterly estimates are not in the supplied package; consensus feed not licensed. YoY/QoQ per PRD §12.5 (transitions, not %, on non-positive bases).
Key facts
Position and valuation context
4.0%
Weight, 31 Jul 2026
Aug rank 4 · Core
₹12.21 L cr
Market cap, July 2026 research sheet
Tijori latest: 11.34 L Cr
43.1x
P/E FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 30.3x
21.4%
ROE FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 22.9%
39.2x
P/E trailing (Tijori)
17.91%
ROE latest FY (Tijori)
ROCE 19.46%
General industrial/consumer/IT preset: growth, margins, ROCE/ROIC, working capital, FCF, net debt; P/E, EV/EBITDA.
Street view · 2 reports
All broker research →Target (median)
₹2,400
range ₹2,400 – ₹2,530
Implied vs 29 Sept 2026
+35.5%
on ₹1,771.2 reference close
Ratings
2/0/0
buy / neutral / sell · latest 19 Aug 2026
Sell-side targets are third-party views, not Buoyant's; the upside is recomputed on our reference close, so it differs from the figure printed at the broker's price date.
Investment case and valuation
Valuation range
No headline target on this page; the book quotes the thesis and the risk rather than a target.
₹1,853
Price (2026-09-07)
43.1x / 30.3x
FY27E / FY28E P/E (Buoyant sheet)
21.4%
FY27E ROE (Buoyant sheet)
37.0x
Trailing P/E
7.5x
Price / book
23%
EPS CAGR FY26–28E
Next catalysts · material risks
What we watch
Catalysts
- Q2FY27 results (late Oct/early Nov 2026): first full-quarter read on Aug-2026 plan withdrawals; JM/MS expect Rs 5-12 ARPU uplift.
- Potential industry tariff hike in H2 FY27 (analysts pencilled Sep-Dec 2026).
- Continued deleveraging/credit upgrades and Bharti Telecom's plan (May-26) to lift promoter stake to >51% via buybacks and dividends - supportive of capital returns.
Key risks
- Tariff hike slips beyond FY27 (June-26 reports that operators were unlikely to hike given fuel/food inflation) - Buoyant's 43x FY27 P/E leaves little room if ARPU stalls at Rs 264-275.
- Jio pricing aggression or a Vi revival funded by government equity (49% GoI) could cap Airtel's premium ARPU and postpaid share gains.
- Africa currency devaluation and repatriation (Nigeria, others) plus higher Africa stake means more FX volatility in reported PAT; promoter holding fell 4.9% over 3 years (Singtel paring ~6% over time).
Sources: · fundamentals Tijori Finance (company filings), pulled locally via MCP batch; not licensed for redistribution · prices Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution).