- 1All four earnings cycles are turning together: deposits +15.4% (a decade high), credit +18.3%, margins troughed in Jun-26 after 125 bp of cuts, net NPAs at 20-year lows (0.3–0.5%).
- 2Bank Nifty trades below its long-run P/B for a mechanical reason: FPIs sold ₹1.8 lakh cr of Indian equity in FY26 and six of their ten largest holdings are banks.
- 3Our residual-income model says the large private banks earn 14.5–17.5% on normalised capital against a 12.25–13% cost of equity and compound book at 12–16% a year.
- 4Selection, not the index: ICICI for certainty of compounding, Axis for improving ROE, SBI for a 1.1% ROA at 1.5x fair P/B; HDFC Bank and Kotak (40% of the index) avoided at 4–5x book.