Bajaj Auto
Value: exports, 3W, net cash
- Last close
- ₹10,811.00
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- −1.9% · −9.2%
- price-only
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank —
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p58
Approved description
Bajaj Auto is India's largest exporter of two- and three-wheelers and the world's largest 3W maker (Pulsar, Platina, Chetak EV, Boxer, RE/Maxima autos, Riki e-rickshaw), with ~7 million units/yr capacity being raised to 9 million+. Since 18-Nov-2025 it owns 100% of PBAG, which holds ~74.9% of Pierer Mobility/KTM, and sells Triumph mid-weight bikes in India. Chetak is India's #2 electric scooter with 22.8% share in Aug-2026 (TVS 27.5%); EV is ~30% of domestic revenue.
- 01Best-in-class growth among 2W majors: Q1FY27 volumes +29% to a record 1.44 mn, exports +54% to 732k (management targets 250k export units/month in Q2), with FY26 PAT +44% to Rs 10,574 cr.
- 02EV franchise has turned profitable: Chetak 22.8% e-2W share (Aug-2026, 33.4k units), EV ~30% of domestic revenue with double-digit profitability; TVS+Bajaj now hold 50.3% of India's e-2W market vs Ola's collapse from ~35% (2024) to 7%.
- 03Margin resilience: 20.9% EBITDA margin held in Q1FY27 despite a 4.5% commodity inflation hit; ROE 29.2% (3-yr 26.3%), ROCE 28.2%, surplus funds Rs 21,000 cr+ and FCF Rs 2,300 cr+ per quarter.
- 04KTM/Pierer control (74.9% via PBAG since Nov-2025) plus Triumph: premium domestic revenue +60% YoY in Q1FY27, giving a global premium-motorcycle platform Hero/TVS lack.
- 05Valuation is the cheapest among growth 2W names: 27.5x TTM / 24.3x FY28e (Buoyant) vs TVS 56.8x and Eicher 36.4x, with 1.27% dividend yield.
Reference close, with results-period markers
- 1Q Sep-25 end · 30 Sept 2025
- 2Q Dec-25 end · 31 Dec 2025
- 3Q Mar-26 end · 31 Mar 2026
- 4Q Jun-26 end · 30 Jun 2026
Quality score, technicals and Buoyant Score
Computing the scorecard…
Latest quarter · Q Jun-26
| Line (₹ cr) | Q Jun-26 | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 21,689 | +65.1% | +21.6% |
| Operating Profit | 4,531 | +62.2% | +47.3% |
| Net Profit | 3,226 | +46.0% | −11.9% |
Reported vs internal estimate: internal quarterly estimates are not in the supplied package; consensus feed not licensed. YoY/QoQ per PRD §12.5 (transitions, not %, on non-positive bases).
Position and valuation context
General industrial/consumer/IT preset: growth, margins, ROCE/ROIC, working capital, FCF, net debt; P/E, EV/EBITDA.
Sell-side targets are third-party views, not Buoyant's; the upside is recomputed on our reference close, so it differs from the figure printed at the broker's price date.
Valuation range
No headline target on this page; the book quotes the thesis and the risk rather than a target.
What we watch
- Monthly dispatches (Oct-2026 festive season) - exports run-rate of 250k/month and Chetak/e-3W share gains.
- Q2FY27 results (Oct/Nov-2026) with the first full quarters of KTM consolidation showing turnaround progress.
- Capacity expansion to 9 mn+ units and new EV/premium launches; buyback completion (stock crossed buyback price on 1-Sep-2026).
- GST-cut base effect: FY26 H2 and Q1FY27 domestic growth (+11%) was helped by the Sep-2025 tax cut; FY27 H2 comparisons get tougher and rural demand is described as measured.
- KTM/Pierer consolidation adds European cost base, restructuring and FX exposure to reported numbers; Q1 consolidated PAT fell 12% QoQ.
- Commodity (4.5% inflation in Q1), rare-earth magnet supply and export-market currency risk (Africa/LatAm) can compress the 20-21% margin; bear-case brokers (Morgan Stanley TP 9,259, UBS 9,530) see limited upside.