NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO· AutomobileNot in Aug top-30Large cap

Bajaj Auto

Value: exports, 3W, net cash

Last close
₹10,811.00
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−1.9% · −9.2%
price-only
Weight
1.6%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank —
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p58
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Monthly dispatches (Oct-2026 festive season) - exports run-rate of 250k/month and Chetak/e-3W share gains.
    C1
  • Q2FY27 results (Oct/Nov-2026) with the first full quarters of KTM consolidation showing turnaround progress.
    C2
  • Capacity expansion to 9 mn+ units and new EV/premium launches; buyback completion (stock crossed buyback price on 1-Sep-2026).
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • GST-cut base effect: FY26 H2 and Q1FY27 domestic growth (+11%) was helped by the Sep-2025 tax cut; FY27 H2 comparisons get tougher and rural demand is described as measured.
    R1
  • KTM/Pierer consolidation adds European cost base, restructuring and FX exposure to reported numbers; Q1 consolidated PAT fell 12% QoQ.
    R2
  • Commodity (4.5% inflation in Q1), rare-earth magnet supply and export-market currency risk (Africa/LatAm) can compress the 20-21% margin; bear-case brokers (Morgan Stanley TP 9,259, UBS 9,530) see limited upside.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01GST-cut base effect: FY26 H2 and Q1FY27 domestic growth (+11%) was helped by the Sep-2025 tax cut; FY27 H2 comparisons get tougher and rural demand is described as measured.Research · post 2QFY27
02KTM/Pierer consolidation adds European cost base, restructuring and FX exposure to reported numbers; Q1 consolidated PAT fell 12% QoQ.Research · post 2QFY27
03Commodity (4.5% inflation in Q1), rare-earth magnet supply and export-market currency risk (Africa/LatAm) can compress the 20-21% margin; bear-case brokers (Morgan Stanley TP 9,259, UBS 9,530) see limited upside.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Monthly dispatches (Oct-2026 festive season) - exports run-rate of 250k/month and Chetak/e-3W share gains.
  • 02Q2FY27 results (Oct/Nov-2026) with the first full quarters of KTM consolidation showing turnaround progress.
  • 03Capacity expansion to 9 mn+ units and new EV/premium launches; buyback completion (stock crossed buyback price on 1-Sep-2026).
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 10,811 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.