NSE: ICICIGI· InsuranceCyclical · Aug 26Mid cap
ICICI Lombard General Insurance
Motor-TP recovery at a two-year low
- Last close
- ₹1,515.00
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- −1.6% · −3.0%
- price-only
- Weight
- 3.1%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 8
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p36
What the business is
Approved description
India's largest private-sector non-life insurer (51.3% owned by ICICI Bank) with FY26 GDPI of Rs 28,713 crore and a ~9.4% overall market share (H1FY25); motor market share 10.5%, group health 10.3% and retail health 4.5% (Q1FY27). It writes motor, health, fire/property, marine and crop business through agents, banks, OEM tie-ups and digital channels, and runs a conservatively invested float (solvency 2.71x). FY26 combined ratio was 102.4% with ROE of 17.8%.
Why we own it · 5 approved reasons
- 01Buying a franchise leader at a cyclical trough: combined ratio 107.2% in Q1FY27 was inflated by ~490 bps of one-offs (Rs 165 cr SC reserve, Rs 63 cr fire losses); adjusted 102.3% is flat YoY and FY26 was 102.4%, with FY26 ROE still 17.8%.
- 02Motor TP repricing is the cyclical lever: tariffs frozen since 2021-22 and IRDAI has proposed an ~18% average hike (Jun-2025); post the 11-Jun-2026 SC homemaker ruling the GI Council is pushing MoRTH for the first hike in four years - ICICI Lombard's motor COR of 106.6% vs industry 128% makes it the biggest relative beneficiary.
- 03Health mix shift lifting growth: retail health +51% in FY26 and +50% in Q1FY27 (swung to an operating profit), overall health +69.5% in Q1FY27; health market share up to 4.5% from 3.5%.
- 04Balance sheet strength: solvency 2.71x vs 1.5x regulatory, almost debt-free, FY26 investment income Rs 4,742 cr (+11.6%), dividend Rs 13.5/share; supports growth capital for the SC-mandated 4-year/6-year long-term TP covers.
- 05Valuation reset: from ~36x to 30x TTM PE, 4.3x book, with street targets of Rs 1,660-1,960 (Nuvama/Emkay/MOFSL) vs Rs 1,481 price after cuts of 5-21% to FY27E EPS already in the base.
Price
Reference close, with results-period markers
Close as of 29 Sept 2026
- 1Q Sep-25 end · 30 Sept 2025
- 2Q Dec-25 end · 31 Dec 2025
- 3Q Mar-26 end · 31 Mar 2026
- 4Q Jun-26 end · 30 Jun 2026
Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution). Price-only series (split-adjusted; dividends excluded). Gaps are non-trading days.
1D
−1.6%
28 Sept 2026
1W
+2.4%
22 Sept 2026
1M
−3.0%
28 Aug 2026
3M
−14.3%
29 Jun 2026
6M
−13.3%
27 Mar 2026
1Y
−20.4%
29 Sept 2025
Buoyant Screener
Quality score, technicals and Buoyant Score
Computing the scorecard…
Results centre
Latest quarter · Q Jun-26
| Line (₹ cr) | Q Jun-26 | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 5,950 | +15.8% | +2.7% |
| Operating Profit | -616 | loss widened | loss widened |
| Net Profit | 403 | −46.1% | −26.3% |
Implication for thesisBroadly unchanged · per 8 Sep 2026 reviewQ1FY27 (Jun-26): revenue 7,088 (+10.8% YoY), PAT 403 (-46.0%)
Reported vs internal estimate: internal quarterly estimates are not in the supplied package; consensus feed not licensed. YoY/QoQ per PRD §12.5 (transitions, not %, on non-positive bases).
Key facts
Position and valuation context
3.1%
Weight, 31 Jul 2026
Aug rank 8 · Cyclical
₹81,790 cr
Market cap, July 2026 research sheet
Tijori latest: 74,212 Cr
30.0x
P/E FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 30.9x
18.2%
ROE FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 15.8%
30.6x
P/E trailing (Tijori)
17.90%
ROE latest FY (Tijori)
ROCE 23.62%
General-insurance preset: premium growth, loss/expense/combined ratio, solvency; earnings and book measures.
Street view · 1 report
All broker research →Target (median)
₹1,960
Motilal Oswal
Implied vs 29 Sept 2026
+29.4%
on ₹1,515 reference close
Ratings
0/1/0
buy / neutral / sell · latest 15 Jul 2026
Sell-side targets are third-party views, not Buoyant's; the upside is recomputed on our reference close, so it differs from the figure printed at the broker's price date.
Investment case and valuation
Valuation range
No headline target on this page; the book quotes the thesis and the risk rather than a target.
₹1,481
Price (2026-09-08)
30.0x / 30.9x
FY27E / FY28E P/E (Buoyant sheet)
18.2%
FY27E ROE (Buoyant sheet)
30.5x
Trailing P/E
4.3x
Price / book
n.a.
EPS CAGR FY26–28E
Next catalysts · material risks
What we watch
Catalysts
- MoRTH/IRDAI notification of a motor TP premium revision (IRDAI proposal ~18% average; GI Council request Jul-2026) - decision expected 'in coming quarters'.
- Q2FY27 results (mid-Oct-2026): confirmation that ex-one-off combined ratio holds at ~102% and that no further SC-related reserve strengthening is needed.
- Implementation of the 5-Aug-2026 Supreme Court mandate for 4-year (car) / 6-year (2W) long-term TP covers on new vehicles and the uninsured-vehicle (56%) enforcement pilot.
Key risks
- Motor TP tariff hike not materialising: MOFSL notes visibility on TP hike, commission changes and motor-OD realignment is 'bleak'; without it motor TP unit economics stay 'sub-optimal' and loss ratios rise 12-15% from the SC ruling.
- Growth lag: GDPI grew 7% in FY26 and 8.5% ('n' basis) in Q1FY27 versus industry 9-11% as the company walks away from under-priced motor and commercial lines; commission expense +33% YoY in Q1FY27.
- Investment income normalising: capital gains fell to Rs 183 cr from Rs 380 cr in Q1FY27; equity-market weakness would compress the ~30% of PBT that comes from realised gains.
Sources: · fundamentals Tijori Finance (company filings), pulled locally via MCP batch; not licensed for redistribution · prices Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution).