How we invest, and why it matters.
Firm, philosophy, process, evidence and terms, in the order a prospect asks.
How we invest, and why it matters
One cycle-aware Indian equity strategy that deliberately changes risk when the opportunity changes — compounding at 20.8% a year net of fees for ten years, with less risk than the market.
Buoyant at a glance
- Buoyant Capital has been managing public equities for nearly a decade, aiming to deliver risk-adjusted returns across market cycles.
- The firm was co-founded by Sachin Khivasara, Jigar Mistry, and Viral Berawala—each with over two decades of experience in equity research and investing.
- Buoyant combines top-down and bottom-up analysis to align sector and stock selection with prevailing market conditions—whether growth or value, bull or bear.
- The firm manages only one strategy—Buoyant Opportunities—enabling full resource alignment and minimizing internal conflicts.
- As of August 31, 2026*, the strategy manages over USD 2.2 billion in AUM.
- Risk is monitored at the stock, portfolio, and liquidity levels.
A good company is not the same as a good investment
- Consistent Earnings ≠ Smooth Stock Returns. Just because a company grows consistently doesn’t mean its stock does. Markets often price in too much too early, leaving the stock stuck even as earnings grow. - Think: “Great company, bad timing.”
- Early Excitement = Price Runs Ahead of Reality. When investors first discover a quality business, prices often shoot up fast. But once that excitement fades, the stock can pause or drift for years—even if the business keeps performing. - Result: Long flat returns despite rising profits.
- The t₀ to t₁ Problem. At t₀, the market pays up for growth. Over the next few years (t₁), the business delivers—but the stock goes nowhere because it was already priced for perfection. - This “dead zone” can last 10–20 years.
- Investor presentation bullets (Sep 2026). • Consistent earnings do not mean smooth stock returns. Markets often price in too much, too early — the stock then goes nowhere while the business keeps delivering. • Early excitement runs the price ahead of reality. Once it fades, the stock can drift for years even as profits rise. • The “t₀ to t₁” problem: the market pays up for growth today; the company delivers over the next few years; the shareholder earns little because it was already priced for perfection. This dead zone can last a decade or more.
A great business isn’t always a good investment—unless you buy it at the right point in its cycle. (deckAug p6). investorpres p5: 'A great business is only a good investment if you buy it at the right point in its cycle.'
From macro view to exit
- 01Macro view: Top-down read of growth, rates, flows and valuations
- 02Stance: Aggressive or defensive; sets the core / satellite mix
- 03Sector allocation: Aligned to where the cycle favours us
- 04Stock selection: Analyst thesis, presented to the Investment Committee
- 05Monitoring: Management meetings, data, thesis check
- 06Exit: Thesis played out — or breached
Growth at a reasonable price — If forced to choose a label. We prefer strong, predictable cash flows, scalable models, sensible capital allocation and durable advantages — and we refuse to pay for growth at any price. (investorpres p10). deckAug p11 'Growth vs. Value': Buoyant does not explicitly categorize itself as a "Growth" or "Value" manager but describes its style as “Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP)” (if forced to stereotype). The firm prefers businesses with: Strong and predictable cash flows; Scalable models; Sensible capital allocation; Sustainable competitive advantages. The strategy is valuation-sensitive and avoids “growth at any price.”
Core and Satellite, aggressive and defensive
Aggressive: Core ~30% / Satellite ~70% — Exploit valuation dispersion; beta can rise; more value, cyclicals, turnarounds and challengers. Defensive / conservative: Core ~70% / Satellite ~30% — Prioritise predictable cash flows, leadership and capital protection when valuations are hostile. (playbook section 04). These are reference weights; the actual mix moves gradually as ideas clear the bar. Docket: 'The switch is a direction of travel, not an overnight flip: satellite share and beta have risen since March and continue to as positions are built.'
| Date | Event | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Jun-20 | Post-COVID | Aggressive |
| Sep-21 | Turning | Defensive |
| Aug-22 | Post Russia–Ukraine | Defensive |
| May-23 | Post-budget | Tactical |
| Jun-24 | Defensive stance | Defensive |
| Nov-25 | Recent low | Defensive |
| Mar-26 | Fourth switch | Aggressive |
| Jul-26 | Now | Aggressive |
- Risk is monitored at the stock, portfolio, and liquidity levels. The team actively reassesses positions based on changes in company or macro dynamics. (deckAug p3)
- Every position is monitored against its original thesis. (investorpres p3)
- Sell discipline: exit when the thesis has played out, when valuation no longer offers attractive upside, or when a known or unknown risk breaches the original underwriting. Not a stop-loss; a thesis check. (investorpres p10; docket p7)
- Stance changes are infrequent — four in ten-plus years — and are slow, valuation-led regime decisions rather than market timing. (investorpres p11)
- The framework is designed to change the shape of a drawdown, not to eliminate it. (investorpres p16)
Performance with its methodology
| Rolling window | Avg PMS | Avg BSE 500 TRI | Lowest PMS | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-yr | 25.4% | 15.8% | -43.0% | 65% |
| 3-yr | 21.1% | 15.3% | -7.8% | 82% |
| 5-yr | 23.4% | 16.5% | 10.1% | 97% |
| 7-yr | 20.7% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 100% |
Full drawdown series requires the NAV export; the firm's own comparison cites a 13.7% NAV decline against a 19–25% market fall in one episode (playbook).
Selected examples
Three of the five largest positions in the latest release, chosen because each has a full approved one-pager and together they show a Core bank, a Core large-cap turnaround-to-core and the house bank thesis. They are not a performance sample and do not represent every investment.
- State Bank of India — Cheapest large bank; funding moat
- India's largest bank: ₹50 lakh crore of loans, ₹60 lakh crore of deposits, 23,000 branches, a 22–23% share of system deposits and a 39% CASA ratio no private bank can match. Since the 2016–19 asset-quality review it has rebuilt from a ₹6,500 crore loss (FY18) to an ₹80,000 crore profit (FY26), with net NPA down from 5.7% at the FY18 peak to 0.4%. Listed subsidiaries — SBI Life, SBI Cards, SBI Funds (AMC), SBI General, SBI Caps — are worth ~₹240 a share today (₹270 on a Sep-2027 basis) after a 20% holding-company discount.
- Cheapest large bank in India: 1.25x core (ex-subsidiaries) book for a 15–16% ROE, against our 1.5x fair P/B; base-case target ₹1,292 (+28%), probability-weighted ₹1,262 (+25%), BUY.
- Funding is the moat: 39% CASA, the lowest cost of deposits among large banks, ₹3 lakh crore of excess SLR and a domestic loan-to-deposit ratio of 74% — SBI can grow loans 15% for three years without chasing deposits, which no private bank can say.
- Key risk: Government ownership (~55%): directed lending, dividend policy and management tenure are policy variables; the ROA ceiling (~1.1%) is structurally below private peers.
- ICICI Bank — Anchor: the compounding franchise
- India's second-largest private bank (₹16 lakh crore of loans, 7,600 branches) and, on every measure we track, the best-run: ROA 2.2%, net NPA 0.4%, CET1 16%+, a 39% CASA franchise, the deepest technology stack in Indian banking and a subsidiary stable (ICICI Prudential Life, ICICI Lombard, ICICI Securities, ICICI Pru AMC) worth ~₹200 a share. Since the 2018 leadership change it has run a 'fair to customer, fair to bank' strategy that traded growth for risk-adjusted return and delivered both.
- The compounding machine: 15–16% ROE on a 16% CET1 base with 15–16% loan growth means book value per share compounds ~14% a year without dilution; over ten-year horizons that is what the share price does too.
- Best liability franchise among the growth banks: deposits grew 14% YoY in 1QFY27 with CASA at 39–41%, funding cost 4.4% (lowest of the big four) and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 89% that leaves room to grow.
- Key risk: Valuation: at 2.5x core book the stock discounts an 18% ROE for a decade; any slip in growth or a credit-cost surprise above 60 bp would de-rate it 15–20%.
- Bharti Airtel — Turnaround: ARPU leader, deleveraging
- India's second-largest mobile operator (491.8 mn India subscribers, 680.9 mn including Africa at Jun-26) with the highest private-operator ARPU (Rs 264 vs Jio Rs 215.6 and Vi Rs 177 in Q1FY27). Also runs home broadband, DTH, enterprise/data-centre (Nxtra) businesses, consolidates Indus Towers, and owns 79%+ of Airtel Africa (14 countries). India mobile is ~73% of revenue; consolidated EBITDA margin is 57.4% and India margin 60.1%.
- ARPU compounding without a headline hike: ARPU Rs 264 in Q1FY27 (+5.6% YoY) from mix (postpaid base >30 mn, 80% smartphone base, 5G bundling) plus Aug-2026 withdrawal of Rs 299-649 1.5-2GB/day plans affecting ~35% of base (128 mn users); JM sees +Rs 5-6 ARPU, Morgan Stanley +Rs 8-12. Every Rs 5 ARPU = ~Rs 1,200 cr (~1%) wireless EBITDA.
- Deleveraging is the 'turnaround': net debt fell 35% YoY to Rs 81,852 cr at Jun-26 (gearing 1.2x per broker note) versus Rs 1.95 lakh cr gross borrowings at Mar-26 on screener; Q1 FCF after leases Rs 16,500 cr exceeded capex Rs 13,386 cr, so ROCE has expanded to 17.6-18% (FY26) from low-teens and FY27e ROE per Buoyant is 21.4%.
- Key risk: Tariff hike slips beyond FY27 (June-26 reports that operators were unlikely to hike given fuel/food inflation) - Buoyant's 43x FY27 P/E leaves little room if ARPU stalls at Rs 264-275.
Company pages linked for internal users only; the prospect release shows the approved text above and no targets.
Earnings are not the scarce resource. The price paid for them is.
August confirmed the June-quarter earnings recovery is real and broad-based — profit growth for the broader market crossed 20% year-on-year for the first time in eight quarters, energy aside. The more interesting question is where that growth is already priced in: consensus now expects small-caps to repeat a delivery rate only four in ten managed last year. The RBI's currency-support scheme has done its job on the rupee, but has left banks managing a liquidity surplus that coexists, awkwardly, with tighter financial conditions. Foreign investors kept selling banks even as fundamentals held up — a reminder that flows and fundamentals do not always agree in the short run. To us, that is an opportunity.
- OVERWEIGHT: Banking & financials — Largest exposure; improving credit/asset-quality setup; depressed valuations partly linked to foreign selling; alpha via selection.
- OVERWEIGHT: Consumption — State transfers and improving volumes; a previously neglected sector becoming the current “main stake.”
- OVERWEIGHT: Healthcare & pharma — Reversal of 2016–17 headwinds; complex patent cliff, Indian capability, CDMO/CRO and GLP-1 chains.
- TACTICAL: IT services (~2–3% in Aug note) — Valuation-floor trade inside a wide 12x–20x uncertainty corridor; not a structural conviction position.
- CAUTIOUS / AVOID: Defence, railways, capex, renewables — Good businesses can still be bad investments when valuation and investor faith are extreme.
- UNDERWEIGHT BROADLY: Small & mid caps — Strong earnings but rich valuations and crowded domestic ownership; selective rather than blanket exposure.
Three founders, 75+ years in Indian equities
- Jigar Mistry, Co-founder. 24 years in equity research across BFSI, metals & mining, utilities and India strategy. Director of Research at HSBC; earlier Kotak Institutional Equities. Chartered Accountant and CFA charterholder.
- Viral Berawala, Co-founder. 26 years of investing and industry experience across IT, FMCG, oil & gas and real estate. CIO at Nippon Life Insurance managing over USD 3 bn; earlier Nippon AMC and TCS. Chartered Accountant; IIM Ahmedabad.
- Sachin Khivasara, Co-founder. 27 years of equity research and investing across autos, capital goods and mid & small caps. Nippon AMC, Edelweiss and Enam. Chartered Accountant and Cost & Works Accountant.
The three have worked together for close to a decade. Analysts own the bottom-up thesis and present to an Investment Committee of the founders; the top-down stance is a committee decision. Every position is monitored against its original thesis. (investorpres p3). Docket FAQ: 'Analysts own the bottom-up thesis and present to an Investment Committee of the three founders; the top-down stance is a committee decision. Positions are monitored against the original thesis and exited when it plays out or breaks. For formal governance detail, offer the DDQ.' deckAug p3: 'Risk is monitored at the stock, portfolio, and liquidity levels. The team actively reassesses positions based on changes in company or macro dynamics.'
PMS and AIF terms
- Inception
- 31 May 2016
- Structure
- PMS · Discretionary
- Benchmark
- BSE 500 TRI
- Assets
- USD 2.2 bn PMS + AIF combined
- Holdings
- 30–35
- Liquidity
- Daily
- Entry / exit load
- Nil
- Horizon
- 3–5 years
- Risk profile
- Aggressive
Fixed-fee and performance-linked options, as per the Disclosure Document (investorpres p28). pmsFactsheetAug: 'Fees and charges are as set out in your Client Agreement.' deckAug: 'Fees and charges are as set out in the Client Agreement and may differ by distribution channel.'
Fee levels are versioned facts from the Disclosure Document; indicative figures quoted in internal notes are not shown until verified against the current document.
Frequently asked
- What exactly is your portfolio strategy? How scalable is it from here?
- One multi-cap, sector-agnostic Indian equity strategy that changes its risk with the cycle. Top-down we decide whether to be aggressive or defensive; that sets how much sits in core — predictable, leading businesses — versus satellite — cyclicals, turnarounds, value. Bottom-up, analysts pick the stocks inside that frame. We have switched stance only four times in ten years. On scale: today 55% of the book is in large caps, and our biggest positions are in some of the largest companies in India — a 7% position in ICICI Bank is about 0.14% of its market cap. The alpha over ten years has come mostly from selection in liquid names — SBI in 2017, ICICI in 2018, Axis through its credit-cost trough — not from illiquid micro caps. The part of the book where size matters is the small-cap sleeve, and that is exactly where we are already selective. If capacity ever constrains the strategy, we would rather say so than launch a second product to absorb flows.
- Why only one strategy?
- Because one strategy is the honest version of what we do. If you run five products, one of them is always doing well and you can always show a client something that worked — that is good for the manager, not the investor. We put the whole research team, and our own money, behind a single portfolio. The flexibility other houses get from multiple products, we get inside the portfolio: it is multi-cap and sector-agnostic, and it moves between aggressive and defensive. You don’t have to switch from our large-cap fund to our small-cap fund at the right moment — that decision is our job, and it is made inside the one strategy you own.
- Your view on the Nifty / market over the next 18 months? How are you thinking about it?
- We don’t manage to an index target, so I won’t give you a Nifty number. Here is how we think about it. The broad market has given almost nothing for two and a half years — the Nifty is still below its September-2024 peak — while earnings kept growing, so valuations have come down to reasonable. The June quarter was the first broad-based beat in two years: large caps grew about 20% excluding OMC losses, mid caps about 30%, small caps 24%, and FY27–28 estimates are being upgraded rather than cut. That is why we moved to an aggressive stance in March. Over the next 18–24 months we expect returns to come from earnings, not from multiples going up — call it earnings growth, give or take. The risks are known and external: crude near $95–100, gas availability, the monsoon, and the long end of the rate curve. So: constructive, positioned in financials, consumption and healthcare — and deliberately not in the crowded trades.
- Why is the portfolio so heavily weighted towards large caps?
- Because that is where the margin of safety is today — not because we are a large-cap fund. The strategy is market-cap agnostic; our large-cap share has swung widely over the decade depending on the stance. Here is the arithmetic. From the highs, large caps fell 17%, mid caps 24%, small caps 27%, micro caps 44% — but small and mid caps started from far richer valuations, and virtually all the new retail money is crowded there; 82% of demat accounts were opened after COVID. Earnings down-cap are excellent — mid caps grew 30% last quarter — but we are paying for that growth twice over. Over ten-year rolling periods, large and small caps have returned roughly the same, about 12–13% a year; what differs is how much you lose on the way. So we hold 55% in large caps, 35% in mid and small, and we are adding down-cap name by name as prices allow. When the valuation pyramid rights itself, the mix will change — that is the whole point of the framework.
- What is the fee structure? Why can’t you bring it down?
- There are two ways to pay us. A flat fee of about 2% a year, or a lower fixed fee of about 1% plus a fifth of the profits above an 8% hurdle, with a high-water mark — so you only share profits on gains you have actually made, and only above 8% a year. No entry load, no exit load, no lock-in. [Confirm the current numbers from the disclosure document before quoting.] On bringing it down — two honest points. First, every return number we show you is after fees: 20.8% net against 14.2% for the index. The fee has been paid and the alpha is still six and a half points a year. Second, the fee funds an 84-person firm with ten research professionals pointed at one portfolio; the choice is between a cheaper fee and a thinner research engine, and we think you are better served by the engine. If you prefer to pay mostly for outcomes, the performance option is designed exactly for that.
- Why no Reliance in the portfolio?
- Not owning a stock isn’t a negative view on it — it is an allocation decision, and we own every zero weight as consciously as every position. Three reasons. First, we already express the theme we most want from Reliance — telecom tariff repair — through Bharti Airtel, which is our fifth-largest position and a cleaner, single-business way to own it. Second, the rest of Reliance is a set of businesses in different cycles — refining and petrochemicals, retail, new energy — valued on a sum-of-parts, and we could not underwrite that with the confidence we have in our financials and consumption names at today’s prices. Third, being benchmark-agnostic is where our alpha has come from: we stayed out of HDFC Bank and Kotak at five times book when they were 40% of the bank index, and the arithmetic worked. We benchmark ourselves to the BSE 500, not to the Nifty’s largest weight.
Next steps: read the SEBI-filed Disclosure Document, agree the fee option, complete onboarding directly or via your distributor. Investors may onboard directly with Buoyant Capital.
Important information
Bloomberg for indices; Buoyant Capital for portfolio data, as at 31 August 2026. Data is for the Buoyant Opportunities PMS (Discretionary), inception 31 May 2016, benchmarked to BSE 500 TRI as prescribed by APMI. Returns up to 12 months are absolute; beyond 12 months annualised (TWRR). Performance is audited annually.
Excess return is the difference between the annualised TWRR of the Investment Approach since inception and the annualised total return of BSE 500 TRI over the same period, expressed in percentage points a year; it is a simple difference in returns and is not adjusted for risk. Beta measures how much the portfolio has tended to move for each 1% move in BSE 500 TRI, calculated from daily returns over the three years to 31 August 2026. Consistency is the share of all five-year rolling periods since inception, measured daily (1,919 periods), in which the annualised return of the Investment Approach exceeded that of BSE 500 TRI — 96.6%, shown rounded. These statistics describe past behaviour and are not forecasts. AUM is the combined assets managed by Buoyant Capital under PMS and AIF mandates as at 31 August 2026, converted at the month-end INR–USD rate.
Holdings are shown for information only, do not represent a recommendation; Buoyant Capital may or may not hold these securities at any time. Portfolio weightages may change at the discretion of BCPL based on market conditions, investment strategy and other relevant factors. Investing in equities involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
Issued by Buoyant Capital Private Limited, a portfolio manager registered with and regulated by SEBI, intended solely for private circulation in India to persons resident in India and to eligible non-resident Indians. Not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where unlawful. All amounts are in Indian rupees unless stated otherwise.
Information is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to make investments with Buoyant Capital ("BCPL"). Certain information is based on third-party sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified; BCPL makes no express warranty as to completeness or accuracy. Investors should read the Disclosure Document and the Client Agreement, including the fee schedule and risk factors, before investing. SEBI Registration Nos: INP000005000 (PMS), IN/AIF3/22-23/1125 (AIF).
Reviewed answers, with internal notes kept internal
- What exactly is your portfolio strategy? How scalable is it from here?
One multi-cap, sector-agnostic Indian equity strategy that changes its risk with the cycle. Top-down we decide whether to be aggressive or defensive; that sets how much sits in core — predictable, leading businesses — versus satellite — cyclicals, turnarounds, value. Bottom-up, analysts pick the stocks inside that frame. We have switched stance only four times in ten years. On scale: today 55% of the book is in large caps, and our biggest positions are in some of the largest companies in India — a 7% position in ICICI Bank is about 0.14% of its market cap. The alpha over ten years has come mostly from selection in liquid names — SBI in 2017, ICICI in 2018, Axis through its credit-cost trough — not from illiquid micro caps. The part of the book where size matters is the small-cap sleeve, and that is exactly where we are already selective. If capacity ever constrains the strategy, we would rather say so than launch a second product to absorb flows.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: The framework is market-cap agnostic by design, so the scalable engine (large-cap core, liquid financials) is not an accident of size — it is where the valuation margin of safety sits today. Small caps are 16.3% of the book (~₹3,400 cr at ₹21,000 cr AUM) spread across ~15 names; that is where impact cost lives, and why down-cap exposure is name-by-name. A distributor-level diligence answer should be quantitative: free float, average daily volume, position size, days-to-liquidate. Offer the liquidity file rather than assurances. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Large cap 55.1% · Mid cap 19.4% · Small cap 16.3% · Cash 9.2%. ICICI Bank 7.0% weight, mkt cap ₹10,28,910 cr, held ≈ 0.14% of mcap; Axis Bank 6.0%, ₹3,82,356 cr, 0.33%; Bharti Airtel 4.0%, ₹12,21,106 cr, 0.07%; State Bank of India 4.0%, ₹9,46,415 cr, 0.09%. (“Held ≈ % of mcap” assumes the PMS weight applied to ₹21,000 cr of strategy AUM; illustrative.) DON’T SAY: “Size doesn’t matter.” It does at the small-cap end; say where it matters and how it is managed.
docket.txt Part B Q01 (asked in the recent investor meet) · 31 July 2026 - Why only one strategy?
Because one strategy is the honest version of what we do. If you run five products, one of them is always doing well and you can always show a client something that worked — that is good for the manager, not the investor. We put the whole research team, and our own money, behind a single portfolio. The flexibility other houses get from multiple products, we get inside the portfolio: it is multi-cap and sector-agnostic, and it moves between aggressive and defensive. You don’t have to switch from our large-cap fund to our small-cap fund at the right moment — that decision is our job, and it is made inside the one strategy you own.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: Full resource alignment. Ten research and dealing professionals, four quant/product, three risk — all pointed at one book. No internal competition for ideas or for the founders’ attention. No conflicts. No question of which product gets the best idea or the allocation in a hot IPO. Accountability. One ten-year track record you can judge; nothing to hide behind. The firm’s stated principle is “no product proliferation, consistent investment style.” Skin in the game. Founders, directors and family invest in the same strategy. The AIF schemes (I–IV) are not different strategies; they are the same portfolio, and a new scheme opens only when the previous one nears its investor cap. THE COMPARISON IN ONE PICTURE — Multi-product house vs Buoyant: Client must choose and time large / mid / small / thematic → Manager moves across caps and sectors inside one book. Best ideas split across mandates → Every idea competes for one portfolio. Something always “worked” → One record, judged whole. Manager’s money often elsewhere → Founders invested in the same strategy. 1 strategy, 2 wrappers (PMS, Cat-III AIF) · 10 yrs one unbroken, audited record. IF PUSHED: “What if I want a pure small-cap allocation?” — “Then we are not the right manager for that slice, and we would rather tell you that than sell you something we don’t believe in.”
docket.txt Part B Q02 · 31 July 2026 - Your view on the Nifty / market over the next 18 months? How are you thinking about it?
We don’t manage to an index target, so I won’t give you a Nifty number. Here is how we think about it. The broad market has given almost nothing for two and a half years — the Nifty is still below its September-2024 peak — while earnings kept growing, so valuations have come down to reasonable. The June quarter was the first broad-based beat in two years: large caps grew about 20% excluding OMC losses, mid caps about 30%, small caps 24%, and FY27–28 estimates are being upgraded rather than cut. That is why we moved to an aggressive stance in March. Over the next 18–24 months we expect returns to come from earnings, not from multiples going up — call it earnings growth, give or take. The risks are known and external: crude near $95–100, gas availability, the monsoon, and the long end of the rate curve. So: constructive, positioned in financials, consumption and healthcare — and deliberately not in the crowded trades.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: Buoyant’s published stance: “constructive”; “the earnings floor has held”; “after two and a half years of no returns from the broad market, we expect that to change over the next two years.” Flows are structural: domestic institutions absorbed all FPI selling in H1-2026 ($50 bn deployed vs $29 bn out) and now own more of India than FIIs. FIIs turned net buyers in July. What would change the view: crude sustained $30 higher (≈1.4 pts inflation, 6–7% profit drag), a failed monsoon feeding food inflation, or a long-end yield spike — that is a multiples problem even if earnings hold. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: June-quarter earnings growth — large caps 20% (ex-OMC losses), mid caps 30%, small caps 24% (Buoyant’s Aug-2026 note). Nifty 50 net profit +11% YoY with half the index reported (factsheet). Nifty 50 (2 Sep 2026) ~23,900. Nifty return FY26 −5.05%. Brent crude ~$97/bbl. Repo / 10-yr G-sec 5.25% / ~6.7–6.8%. Headline / core CPI (Jul-26) 4.45% / ~4.3%. DON’T SAY: A level or a date. “Constructive on earnings, cautious on multiples, positioned differently” is the whole answer.
docket.txt Part B Q03 · 31 July 2026 (market data 2 Sep 2026) - Why is the portfolio so heavily weighted towards large caps?
Because that is where the margin of safety is today — not because we are a large-cap fund. The strategy is market-cap agnostic; our large-cap share has swung widely over the decade depending on the stance. Here is the arithmetic. From the highs, large caps fell 17%, mid caps 24%, small caps 27%, micro caps 44% — but small and mid caps started from far richer valuations, and virtually all the new retail money is crowded there; 82% of demat accounts were opened after COVID. Earnings down-cap are excellent — mid caps grew 30% last quarter — but we are paying for that growth twice over. Over ten-year rolling periods, large and small caps have returned roughly the same, about 12–13% a year; what differs is how much you lose on the way. So we hold 55% in large caps, 35% in mid and small, and we are adding down-cap name by name as prices allow. When the valuation pyramid rights itself, the mix will change — that is the whole point of the framework.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: Published logic: “large caps carry the better margin of safety today; if we find great ideas down-cap, we will keep dialling in selectively.” Buoyant’s own history shows the mix is a stance output: the factsheet’s market-cap chart moves materially between the Jun-20 aggressive phase and the defensive years. 36% of the book is already mid and small — this is not a large-cap-only portfolio. Names like Kaynes, Ramkrishna Forgings, Campus, PVR Inox, Indegene are down-cap conviction positions. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Fall from highs — Large 17% · Mid 24% · Small 27% · Micro 44%. Rolling avg return, Large-cap index vs Small-cap index: 5-year rolling 12.4% vs 13.3%; 10-year rolling 12.0% vs 13.0%; worst 3-yr window −12% vs −49%. Source: Buoyant deck (ACE Equity, since 1992). DON’T SAY: “Small caps are dangerous.” Say: “small caps are expensive and crowded right now — we own the ones where price still makes sense.”
docket.txt Part B Q04 · 31 July 2026 - What is the fee structure? Why can’t you bring it down?
There are two ways to pay us. A flat fee of about 2% a year, or a lower fixed fee of about 1% plus a fifth of the profits above an 8% hurdle, with a high-water mark — so you only share profits on gains you have actually made, and only above 8% a year. No entry load, no exit load, no lock-in. [Confirm the current numbers from the disclosure document before quoting.] On bringing it down — two honest points. First, every return number we show you is after fees: 20.8% net against 14.2% for the index. The fee has been paid and the alpha is still six and a half points a year. Second, the fee funds an 84-person firm with ten research professionals pointed at one portfolio; the choice is between a cheaper fee and a thinner research engine, and we think you are better served by the engine. If you prefer to pay mostly for outcomes, the performance option is designed exactly for that.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: The performance-fee option aligns interests: in a flat year you pay ~1%; the manager earns more only when you earn more than 8%. The right comparison is fee versus net alpha, not fee versus zero. A low-cost index fund is a legitimate alternative — for a client who does not want active risk allocation, say so. Direct onboarding (without a distributor) is available to every investor and is disclosed on every document. WHAT YOU KEEP, AT DIFFERENT GROSS RETURNS (ILLUSTRATIVE): A: ~2% fixed vs B: ~1% + 20% above 8% hurdle — at 6% gross: 4.0% / 5.0%; 10% gross: 8.0% / 8.8%; 15% gross: 13.0% / 12.8%; 20% gross: 18.0% / 16.8%; 25% gross: 23.0% / 20.8%. Net of the two fee options only; before taxes, brokerage and other expenses; hurdle 8% simple, one-year period, high-water mark not binding. Fee levels are as reported in public PMS comparisons — verify against the current PMS disclosure document / AIF PPM before quoting. DON’T SAY: A discount, a special rate, or “I’ll check if we can do better”. Fees are as per the agreement; changes are a firm decision, not a desk decision.
docket.txt Part B Q05 — NOTE: fee levels are flagged in the docket as publicly reported, not verified against the Disclosure Document / PPM · 31 July 2026 - Why no Reliance in the portfolio?
Not owning a stock isn’t a negative view on it — it is an allocation decision, and we own every zero weight as consciously as every position. Three reasons. First, we already express the theme we most want from Reliance — telecom tariff repair — through Bharti Airtel, which is our fifth-largest position and a cleaner, single-business way to own it. Second, the rest of Reliance is a set of businesses in different cycles — refining and petrochemicals, retail, new energy — valued on a sum-of-parts, and we could not underwrite that with the confidence we have in our financials and consumption names at today’s prices. Third, being benchmark-agnostic is where our alpha has come from: we stayed out of HDFC Bank and Kotak at five times book when they were 40% of the bank index, and the arithmetic worked. We benchmark ourselves to the BSE 500, not to the Nifty’s largest weight.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: The published record shows alpha from not hugging the largest index names (HDFC Bank / Kotak example in the August note). The portfolio has zero Reliance and 4.0% Bharti Airtel (large-cap, satellite “turnaround”), which lets you frame the answer as a positive choice, not an omission. Conglomerate valuation depends on capital-allocation outcomes (new-energy capex, retail/telecom listings) that sit outside the earnings-and-price arithmetic the strategy relies on. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Bharti Airtel 4.0% (Large cap · Turnaround); Reliance Industries 0.0% (Not held); HDFC Bank 1.8% (Large cap · Core (small)); Kotak Mahindra Bank 0.0% (Not held). Airtel FY27e PE 43×, FY28e 30×; ROE rising from 21% to 23% (portfolio file). Reliance and Kotak not in the July-2026 PMS file. FLAG — ALIGN BEFORE USE: The reasons above are a suggested framing consistent with the strategy’s published logic; the source materials do not contain a stated Reliance view. Confirm the investment team’s current thesis before using in a meeting, and never imply a negative view of the company. DON’T SAY: “We missed it” or “we don’t like the group.” Say “we chose to express the theme elsewhere.”
docket.txt Part B Q06 — flagged in the docket as a suggested framing, not a stated house view · 31 July 2026 - Why such a high allocation to banks?
Banks are 21% of the book, and financials as a whole about 36% — lenders, insurers and a little fintech. It is our largest exposure for a simple reason: it is the one place where the fundamentals and the price disagree. All four cycles that matter for a bank are turning the right way at once — deposit growth 19%, corporate bond issuance down 18% so borrowing is migrating back to banks, loan growth at a three-year high excluding the HDFC merger, margins improving, asset quality benign. And yet valuations are cheap, for one mechanical reason: foreign investors are selling, and they can only sell what they own — six of their ten largest holdings are banks. Over ten years, earnings growth and share-price growth converge. We can’t tell you the month the narrative turns; we can tell you the arithmetic is on our side. And note: our returns from financials have come from picking the right franchises, not from the bank index — SBI in 2017, ICICI in 2018, Axis through its credit-cost trough, plus Shriram and Bajaj Finance.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: Financials is the largest sector of every broad Indian index; 36% is a conviction overweight, not a single-factor bet — banks, NBFCs and insurers have different rate and funding sensitivities. Selection, not index: only 1.8% in HDFC Bank, none in Kotak. The bank index has gone sideways; the chosen names have not. Insurance keeps the most of every rupee of household financial savings at the cheapest valuation. ICICI Lombard took a ~10% hit on the Supreme Court third-party ruling — acknowledge it; the ₹60–70k crore market will return in another form. Risks to name yourself: deposit competition (credit-deposit ratio ~82.5%), the RBI’s draft curbs on NBFC revolving credit (Bajaj Finance ~13–15% of AUM in flexi loans; final rules pending after 28 Aug), a fresh asset-quality cycle. FINANCIALS BY SEGMENT, PMS: Banking 21.1% · Insurance 7.5% · NBFC 7.3%. ICICI Bank 7.0% (FY27E PE 20.8×, FY28E ROE 16.1%); Axis Bank 6.0% (15.9×, 13.9%); State Bank of India 4.0% (12.2×, 14.5%); Shriram Finance 3.5% (21.4×, 14.4%); Bajaj Finance 3.5% (37.5×, 20.5%); ICICI Lombard 3.1% (30.0×, 15.8%); Max Financial 2.9% (—, 18.9%). DON’T SAY: “Banks always do well when the economy grows.” Say “fundamentals and price disagree; that gap is the opportunity.”
docket.txt Part B Q07 · 31 July 2026 - Does core vs satellite just mean large caps vs small caps?
No — and the portfolio proves it. Core is about the nature of the business: predictable cash flows, sensible reinvestment, an industry leader. Satellite is about the nature of the thesis: a cyclical whose earnings swing, a turnaround where a disruption is ending, a value name priced below what it is worth, or a challenger where the leader is too expensive. Bharti Airtel is one of the largest companies in India and it sits in satellite as a turnaround. Kaynes is a small cap and it sits in core. ICICI Lombard is a mid cap in the cyclical bucket. So when we say ‘aggressive means more satellite’, we mean more thesis-driven risk — not simply more small caps. In practice the two do overlap: cheap, unloved, recovering businesses are more often found down-cap. But the sorting rule is the thesis, and every satellite position has a date by which the thesis should be visible in the numbers.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: Buoyant’s framework defines core by cash flows, reinvestment and leadership; satellite by four buckets — cyclical, turnaround, value, challenger. Today: core 60.8% (69.9% incl. cash); satellite 30.1% = cyclical 9.1 + turnaround 11.8 + value 9.2. Anticipate the sharp follow-up — “you turned aggressive in March but core is still 70%?” SAME STOCK, DIFFERENT AXES: Bharti Airtel — Large — SATELLITE · TURNAROUND; ICICI Lombard — Mid — SATELLITE · CYCLICAL; Dalmia Bharat — Mid — SATELLITE · VALUE; Kaynes Technology — Small — CORE; Campus Activewear — Small — CORE; ICICI Bank — Large — CORE. IF ASKED: “Aggressive since March, yet core is still ~70%?” — “A stance change is a direction of travel, not an overnight flip. Since March, satellite has risen, beta has moved from ~0.8 to ~0.95, and cash is being deployed as ideas clear the bar. We also express ‘aggressive’ inside core — for example, a heavier tilt to higher-beta financials.”
docket.txt Part B Q08 · 31 July 2026 - IT, AI disruption, and the potential hit to consumption from lost IT salaries?
On IT, we think the work stays and the people don’t. Legacy systems still need to be run and reconciled, but AI means far fewer engineers are needed to do it — so revenue can hold while headcount and pricing compress. We put a floor on the sector at about 12 times earnings — that is what a services firm is worth with zero terminal growth, all profits paid out and an 8% required yield — and we see no case above 20 times. The sector fell from about 30 towards that floor, so we bought a small dip; large-cap IT services is well under 1% of the book. It is a corridor of uncertainty, not a conviction. On consumption — this is the question everyone asks and the arithmetic surprises people. India’s entire IT salary bill is about ₹6 lakh crore, roughly 1.7% of GDP. Over the past two years, state governments have transferred almost exactly that amount into household hands through welfare schemes — the transfer bill of the sixteen election-bound states now exceeds their capex bill. So even if the IT salary pool shrinks at the margin, a flow of the same size has already arrived on the other side, and it is landing with households that spend it on staples, not on premium apartments. That is why our consumption is mass-market — HUL, Britannia, DMart, Varun Beverages, Campus — not the IT-salary-funded premium end.” THE TWO ₹6 LAKH CRORE FLOWS: State welfare transfers to households (est.) ≈ ₹6 lakh cr; India’s entire IT salary bill (approx.) ≈ ₹6 lakh cr. Both ≈ 1.7% of GDP. Source: Buoyant analysis of 16 state budgets (Aug-2026 note). WHAT THE IT SLOWDOWN ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE: Top-5 IT firms cut net headcount by ~7,000 in FY26 versus adding 12,000 the year before; gross hiring fell to ~170,000 from a ~230,000 average. TCS announced a ~2% (~12,000) reduction. The June-2026 sell-off: Nifty IT fell ~6% in a day after Accenture cut guidance; Infosys and TCS hit multi-year lows. Sector ~5 million employed; the hit is concentrated in a few cities and in premium discretionary — housing, cars, travel. Portfolio exposure: Infosys 0.7%. The factsheet’s 6.5% “IT” bucket is mostly Kaynes (EMS), Paytm (fintech) and Indegene (health-tech).
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
DON’T SAY: “AI won’t affect Indian IT.” It will — say where the floor is and why we sized it small.
docket.txt Part B Q09 (IT headcount/press figures are 'context only — verify before quoting externally') · 31 July 2026 - What do you think about the GDP growth numbers?
We read them, but we don’t invest on them. The June-quarter print was 7.8% real and about 10.3% nominal, against an RBI expectation of 7%, and FY26 came in at 7.4–7.7% depending on which official estimate you use — we quote both rather than averaging them. Three things matter more to us than the headline. First, nominal growth, because earnings are nominal — 10% nominal with 4–5% inflation is a much healthier mix than the 8% nominal we had a year ago. Second, the indicators that lead earnings rather than lag them: GST collections, credit growth, advance tax, e-way bills — all of which are consistent with growth north of 6.5%, and none of which said the economy was in trouble even when the market did. Third, the gaps: tax buoyancy has been weak at about 0.6 times, which tells you nominal activity was softer than the headline suggested through FY26. GDP data gets revised; the cash flows of the companies we own don’t. So our view is: the economy is resilient, the earnings floor has held, and the 18-month question is the macro — crude, monsoon, rates — not GDP.
Internal notes · why it holds, numbers, what not to say
WHY IT HOLDS: Factsheet language: “credit growth, GST collections and industrial activity remain consistent with growth north of 6.5%”; “evidence of earnings resilience is not the same as evidence that the macro environment has turned.” Buoyant’s macro discipline: quote both official estimates; separate nominal from real; watch advance tax as an earnings lead indicator; do not average inconsistent series. NUMBERS TO QUOTE: Real GDP, Q1 FY27 (Apr–Jun 2026) 7.8%; Nominal GDP, Q1 FY27 ~10.3%; Real GDP FY26 (PE / FAE) 7.7% / 7.4%; RBI FY27 projection 6.7%; Non-food credit growth (Jun-26) 18.3%; Tax buoyancy 0.6×; Centre fiscal deficit / combined debt 4.4% / 84.5% of GDP; Current account −0.6% of GDP. Q1 FY27 data released 31 Aug 2026 (MoSPI). FY26 estimates per Buoyant macro cheat-sheet. DON’T SAY: “The numbers are fudged.” Say “we triangulate with indicators that can’t be revised — GST, credit, advance tax.”
docket.txt Part B Q10 · 31 July 2026 (GDP data released 31 Aug 2026)