NSE: ASTRAL· IndustrialsNot in Aug top-30Mid cap
Astral
CPVC leader after a destocking year
- Last close
- ₹1,375.00
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- +0.3% · −10.3%
- price-only
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank —
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p53
Map
What must happen → what could break it → what we watch
Catalysts · 3
- Q2FY27 results (Nov-2026): confirmation of the July (+40%) and August (double-digit) volume rebound and adhesives margin normalisation to 15-17%.C1
- Commissioning of the captive CPVC resin plant by Dec-2026 and aluminium patch-machine commercial production after Sep-2026 trials.C2
- Notification of anti-dumping duty on PVC suspension resin by the Ministry of Finance (pending since DGTR final finding).C3
Material risks · 3
- PVC/CPVC resin price declines cause inventory losses (Rs 25 cr in Q1FY26) and defer channel buying; anti-dumping duty on suspension resin has repeatedly failed to be notified.R1
- Valuation: 67x TTM / ~57x FY27E leaves no room for a miss; 5-yr PAT CAGR is only 6% despite 16% sales CAGR.R2
- Paints and UK adhesives are sub-scale (paints EBITDA margin 0.1%, UK 4.9%) and could dilute group margins if scale-up stalls; real-estate/infra slowdown hits plumbing volumes.R3
Live monitors
- Valuation vs approved targetNo target stated
- Latest reported quarterQ Jun-26
- Results-driven thresholdsAwaiting approved numbers
Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.
Risks as a decision framework
Material risks
| # | Risk (approved text) | Owner · next review |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | PVC/CPVC resin price declines cause inventory losses (Rs 25 cr in Q1FY26) and defer channel buying; anti-dumping duty on suspension resin has repeatedly failed to be notified. | Research · post 2QFY27 |
| 02 | Valuation: 67x TTM / ~57x FY27E leaves no room for a miss; 5-yr PAT CAGR is only 6% despite 16% sales CAGR. | Research · post 2QFY27 |
| 03 | Paints and UK adhesives are sub-scale (paints EBITDA margin 0.1%, UK 4.9%) and could dilute group margins if scale-up stalls; real-estate/infra slowdown hits plumbing volumes. | Research · post 2QFY27 |
Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.
Catalysts
Observable events
- 01Q2FY27 results (Nov-2026): confirmation of the July (+40%) and August (double-digit) volume rebound and adhesives margin normalisation to 15-17%.
- 02Commissioning of the captive CPVC resin plant by Dec-2026 and aluminium patch-machine commercial production after Sep-2026 trials.
- 03Notification of anti-dumping duty on PVC suspension resin by the Ministry of Finance (pending since DGTR final finding).
Monitors
Live monitors from available data
- ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 1,375 vs base target not stated.
- DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
- DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.