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Release
August 2026 · rev 1
Opportunities PMS · Published
As at 31 Aug 2026 · IST₹ · ₹ cr · BSE 500 TRI
Present
Internal working platform. Published figures are extracted from the August 2026 source package and reviewed; reference prices and fundamentals are unlicensed working data, not for redistribution. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Company Atlas/Banking/Axis Bank
NSE: AXISBANK· BankingCore · Aug 26Large cap

Axis Bank

The improving ROE story

Last close
₹1,212.10
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
+0.2% · −4.2%
price-only
Weight
6.0%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 2
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p28
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf · p1Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026) · p28Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
OverviewBusiness & segmentsChartsFinancialsValuationThesisRisks & catalystsCompetitorsResearch & documents
Broker research · 2 reports

Sell-side views, extracted from the PDFs on file

Antique Stock Broking LimitedBUYdailymulti-company
Antique's Morning Presentation - From The Research Desk (Indian Banking Sector; NBFC 1QFY27 Review; Cement; FMCG)
19 Aug 2026 · Manjith Nair, Pashmi Chheda, Raju Barnawal · 86 pp · open PDF ↗
Target
₹1,575
At report
₹1,243
Vs our close
+29.9%

Axis Bank missed on margins but beat on PAT led by lower opex in Q1FY27; Antique retains BUY as part of its preferred large-private-bank list.

Key points
  • Q1FY27: Advances Rs 1,26,15,567 mn (+19.0% YoY); Deposits Rs 1,37,29,357 mn (+18.2% YoY); PAT Rs 71,139 mn (+22.5% YoY/0.6% QoQ)
  • Reported NIM declined 16bps QoQ to 3.24% (management attributes 9bps to loan repricing, 4bps to asset-liability mix, 3bps to interest reversal on higher slippages); structural through-cycle NIM guidance unchanged at 3.8%
  • Loan growth 19% YoY/2% QoQ led by corporate (+38% YoY); GNPA 1.28%, NNPA 0.39%, PCR stable at ~70%; credit cost rose from 38bps to 67bps QoQ on higher slippages
  • Guided to grow advances ~300bps above industry growth over the medium term with increasing retail share

Extraction note: This is a very long (86-page) multi-sector daily; only sections/data relevant to tracked portfolio companies were extracted in depth. The daily's Banking sector report (pages 3-60) also covers non-portfolio banks in similar depth: Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Federal Bank,…

JM FinancialBUYresult update
Mixed quarter: NIM disappoints; asset quality in line
18 Jul 2026 · Ajit Kumar, Raghvesh Sharan, Pratik Matkar · 12 pp · open PDF ↗
Target
₹1,575
At report
₹1,329+19% printed
Vs our close
+29.9%

JM Financial maintains BUY on Axis Bank after a mixed Q1FY27 where healthy balance-sheet growth was offset by continued NIM contraction, though PAT beat on lower provisions. The broker keeps its target price unchanged at Rs 1,575 (1.7x FY28E core BVPS via excess-returns SOTP), noting profitability still lags ICICI Bank meaningfully, which justifies the valuation gap.

Thesis
  • Advances grew 19% YoY/2.3% QoQ, led by large & mid corporates (+38% YoY) and SME (+25% YoY), while retail ex-agri growth was muted at 5% YoY
  • NII grew 8% YoY (-2% vs JMFe) as calculated NIM contracted 14bps QoQ to 3.25%, hit by loan repricing, mix shift to corporate and agri seasonality; management reiterated structural NIM target of ~3.8% and believes Q1FY27 is the cycle bottom
  • PAT grew 23% YoY (+1% vs JMFe), supported by disciplined opex growth (+5% YoY) and a sharp 44% YoY decline in provisions
  • Asset quality stable: GNPA/NNPA at 1.34%/0.41% (+5bps/+2bps QoQ); credit costs well contained at 71bps vs 150bps in Q1FY26
  • Profitability still lags ICICI Bank materially: Q1FY27 RoA/RoE of 1.5%/14% for Axis vs ~2.5%/17% for ICICI, warranting the valuation gap
  • Management evaluating increasing stake in Max Life, subject to internal approvals and regulatory consent
Risks
  • Near-term NIM improvement remains a key monitorable for the earnings recovery thesis
  • Recurring provisions expected to increase post ECL transition due to Stage 1/Stage 2 provisioning versus current IRAC framework
Q1FY27 highlights
  • NII grew 8% YoY/1% QoQ to INR 146 Bn, 2% below JM estimate of INR 149 Bn
  • PAT grew 23% YoY/1% QoQ to INR 71 Bn, 1% above JM estimate
  • Calculated NIM contracted 14bps QoQ to 3.25% (down 31bps YoY)
  • Provisions fell 44% YoY/37% QoQ to INR 22 Bn; credit cost at 71bps vs 118bps QoQ
  • GNPA/NNPA at 1.34%/0.41%, up 5bps/2bps QoQ; gross slippage ratio 1.8% vs 3.2% in Q1FY26
  • Core fee income grew 7% YoY (-8% vs JMFe); CASA ratio fell to 38.0% from 39.6% QoQ
Catalysts
  • Balance sheet recalibration through higher retail mix and deployment of FCNR liquidity as a margin lever
  • Improving funding costs, better asset mix and benign credit costs expected to drive earnings recovery over the medium term
Broker estimatesUnitFY24AFY25AFY26AFY27EFY28E
Net ProfitINR mn2,48,6142,63,7352,44,5673,10,6543,70,888
NIIINR mn4,98,9455,43,4785,60,4806,30,6627,66,968
PPOPINR mn3,71,2324,21,0494,28,1685,08,9276,39,189
EPSINR80.585.178.799.9119.3
BVPSINR489.4580.3661.3755.6873.4
ABVINR477559.3640.3734.7852.5
P/Ex16.515.616.913.311.1
P/BVx2.712.292.011.761.52
ROA%1.781.711.41.521.56
ROE%1815.912.714.114.6

Valuation: Excess returns SOTP: 1.7x FY28E core BVPS for standalone bank plus subsidiary value. Standalone valued at 1.7x FY28E core BVPS (excess return method) for Rs 1,439/share (91% of TP), plus subsidiaries (Axis AMC, Max Life, Axis Bank UK, Axis Capital, Axis Finance, Axis Securities, Axis Trustee) worth Rs 136/share, for a total TP of Rs 1,575, equating to 1.7x FY28E consolidated P/B. EPS estimates largely maintained (+1% for both FY27E and FY28E); loan growth assumptions raised (+201bps/+100bps for FY27E/FY28E) while NIM assumptions cut (-15bps/-14bps); target price unchanged at Rs 1,575.

Extraction note: Financial statement tables are in INR mn while the SOTP and some commentary use INR/Rs bn or per-share figures as printed; unit labels preserved from source tables.

Figures are transcribed from each broker's PDF as printed (units as the broker states them) and are the broker's estimates, not Buoyant's. "Vs our close" recomputes the target against the latest reference close (29 Sept 2026).

SWOT

Strengths · Weaknesses · Opportunities · Threats

Draft
Strengths
  • The numbers are still improving: ROE goes from 12.7% (FY26) to 14% (FY27E) to 15.6% (FY31E) on our model as NIM recovers off the June-2026 trough, cost-to-assets falls below 2.15% and credit cost normalises to 65 bp — exactly the pattern the market has paid for historically.
  • Cheaper than ICICI and Kotak: 1.7x core book against a 1.7x fair value from our residual-income model, with an 18% base-case and 16% probability-weighted 12-month return (BUY).
  • Liability franchise catching up: deposits +18% YoY in 1QFY27, CASA 38–40%, the FCNR(B) scheme is bringing in cheap dollar funding, and the retail term-deposit engine built through 2024–25 is now lowering marginal cost.
  • Operating leverage: opex growth held at 9–10% against 13–14% revenue growth; the Citi integration costs are behind it.
Weaknesses
  • vs ICICI Bank: We own both; ICICI is the higher-quality, higher-priced finished article. Axis has more upside if the ROE recovery lands, and more risk if NIM disappoints again.
  • vs Kotak Mahindra: Kotak's 12% ROE at 2.0x core book compares with Axis's 14% at 1.7x — Axis is cheaper for a higher and rising return.
Opportunities
  • 2QFY27 NIM (the trough call) and the quantum of FCNR(B) deposits raised.
  • Retail loan growth crossing 10% and cost-to-assets printing ≤ 2.15%.
  • Any RBI relaxation on unsecured risk weights or a benign ECL transition disclosure.
Threats
  • NIM: Axis has a history of margin disappointment; if 2Q NIM falls below 3.40% (reported) the recovery thesis is delayed by a year and the stock would test 1.5x book.
  • Unsecured retail: credit cards and personal loans are ~10% of the book; a consumer-credit cycle would lift credit cost above the 65 bp we model.
  • Deposit competition: LDR of 92% is above ICICI's 89%; a return of the FY25 funding squeeze would cap growth at 12% rather than 16%.

Compiled from the approved one-pager (Why We Own What We Own, 8 Sep 2026): why-we-own → strengths, catalysts → opportunities, key risks → threats, peer caveats → weaknesses. Editorial mapping pending review. · author: compiled from the approved one-pager

Research reports · upload with a check step

0 approved · 0 pending · 0 rejected

Only approved reports are readable from the company page; the reviewer must differ from the uploader. Files are hashed (duplicates skipped) and held in the private store.

Internal evidence

Buoyant sources for this name

  • August 2026 top-30 disclosure — rank 2, Banking, Core. Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf
  • One-pager, "Why We Own What We Own" — p28, 8 Sep 2026. Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026)
  • Sales playbook, Aug 2026 — holdings matrix (PMS/AIF I/AIF II, $31 Jul 2026). Buoyant_Capital_Sales_Playbook_Aug_2026_Full_Holdings.pdf

Original PDFs are in the supplied package on disk; private object storage is not configured, so source pages are referenced, not served.

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Ownership

Shareholding · Jun'26

Promoter7.87%
Indian Promoters7.87%
LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF INDIA7.87%
LIC (Lanka) Ltd0.00%
LIC Bangladesh Ltd0.00%
LIC Housing Finance Ltd0.00%
LIC HFL Asset Management Company Ltd0.00%
LIC Pension Fund Ltd0.00%
LIC Card Services Ltd0.00%
LIC (Singapore) Pte Ltd0.00%
LIC (Nepal) Ltd0.00%
LIC(International) BSC (c) Bahrain0.00%
Public Shareholding89.04%
Institutions82.60%