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Release
August 2026 · rev 1
Opportunities PMS · Published
As at 31 Aug 2026 · IST₹ · ₹ cr · BSE 500 TRI
Present
Internal working platform. Published figures are extracted from the August 2026 source package and reviewed; reference prices and fundamentals are unlicensed working data, not for redistribution. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Company Atlas/FMCG/Britannia Industries
NSE: BRITANNIA· FMCGCyclical · Aug 26Large cap

Britannia Industries

Cleanest GST beneficiary

Last close
₹4,835.00
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−1.6% · −8.9%
price-only
Weight
2.0%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 21
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p34
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf · p1Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026) · p34Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
OverviewBusiness & segmentsChartsFinancialsValuationThesisRisks & catalystsCompetitorsResearch & documents
Broker research · 2 reports

Sell-side views, extracted from the PDFs on file

Antique Stock Broking LimitedBUYdailymulti-company
Antique's Morning Presentation - From The Research Desk (Indian Banking Sector; NBFC 1QFY27 Review; Cement; FMCG)
19 Aug 2026 · Manjith Nair, Pashmi Chheda, Raju Barnawal · 86 pp · open PDF ↗
Target
₹6,998
At report
₹5,495
Vs our close
+44.7%

Britannia is one of Antique's preferred FMCG picks (with Marico and Bajaj Consumer); July channel checks showed sequential improvement including a recovery in the East region.

Key points
  • July channel checks: sequential improvement with distributors achieving targets; Marie, Good Day and Cream Cracker led the business, Creams category picked up and Cakes returned to growth
  • East India posted a recovery in off-take after several months of weakness; Central and South continued to outperform
  • Distributor inventory remained under control; MT and e-commerce added healthy volumes
  • Valuation Guide: Mcap $13.8bn, FY27E/FY28E/FY29E P/E of 47.8x/42.1x/36.8x, EV/EBITDA 33.4x/29.5x/25.8x

Extraction note: This is a very long (86-page) multi-sector daily; only sections/data relevant to tracked portfolio companies were extracted in depth. The daily's Banking sector report (pages 3-60) also covers non-portfolio banks in similar depth: Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Federal Bank,…

PL CapitalBUYresult update
Britannia Industries - Demand trends healthy, Input cost inflation a concern
7 Aug 2026 · Amnish Aggarwal, Vishwa Solanki, Parth Thakker · 9 pp · open PDF ↗
Target
₹6,579
At report
₹5,404+21% printed
Vs our close
+36.1%

PL Capital retains BUY on Britannia after 1Q volumes grew 9% YoY with modern trade, quick commerce and e-commerce growing 2.5x general trade, while input cost inflation in milk, sugar, palm oil and fuel kept margin gains modest. The broker raises its TP to Rs.6,579 (from Rs.6,441) on 50x FY28E EPS, viewing the long-term business moat, new-launch success and impulse-led adjacency traction as intact even as only about 50% of cost inflation has been passed through so far.

Thesis
  • 1Q volumes grew 9% YoY; non-biscuit portfolio (cakes, rusk, wafers, dairy) grew in double digits and croissants grew 30% YoY on new variants
  • Modern trade, quick commerce and e-commerce grew at 2.5x the rate of general trade, with quick commerce carrying a better mix from premium products and large packs
  • Consolidated revenue grew 8.2% YoY to Rs.50bn with gross margin up 119bps YoY to 41.5%; EBITDA grew 11% YoY to Rs.8.4bn (margin +42bps to 16.8%)
  • Demand outlook positive as the dual-pricing issue (resolved by mid-May) and IBD disruption are largely behind, with pricing improving meaningfully from June
  • PL cuts FY27E EPS by 1.7% and raises FY28E EPS by 2.1%, factoring in the 9% volume growth, superior channel mix and input cost inflation
  • Valued at 50x FY28E EPS for a TP of Rs.6,579 (vs Rs.6,441 earlier); stock trades at 41.1x FY28E EPS, seen as a good entry point for a 12-15 month perspective
Risks
  • Input cost inflation in packaging, fuel, milk and sugar expected to prevent any significant margin increase
  • Only about 50% of cost inflation has been passed on so far, curtailing near-term margin growth
  • YoY lower margins expected in 2Q/3Q against a high base (19.5%/19.7% in the year-ago quarters, aided by phantom stock option writeback and higher gross margin)
  • Grammage reduction expected in small Rs.5/10 packs even as 2Q realization is expected to turn 1.5-2% positive from price hikes
Q1FY27 highlights
  • Consolidated net sales Rs.50,000mn, up 8.2% YoY (PLe: Rs.49,966mn)
  • Gross margin 41.5%, up 119bps YoY (PLe: 41.0%)
  • EBITDA Rs.8,401mn, up 11.0% YoY, margin 16.8% (+42bps YoY, PLe: 17.5%)
  • PBT Rs.7,991mn, up 13.2% YoY
  • Adjusted PAT Rs.5,952mn, up 13.4% YoY (PLe: Rs.6,224mn)
  • Standalone sales grew 8.6% YoY to Rs.48.3bn with adjusted PAT up 15.7% YoY to Rs.5.8bn
Catalysts
  • Price hikes taken during the quarter expected to lift 2Q realization by 1.5-2%, against a flat trend in 1Q27
  • International business, flat in 1Q on West Asia impact, expected to turn positive from 2Q27
  • Doodh Marie recently launched in Bihar, supporting continued double-digit growth in Eastern India
  • Continued rural distribution expansion (direct reach and rural preferred dealers both rising YoY)
Broker estimatesUnitFY25FY26FY27EFY28E
SalesINR mn1,79,4271,91,5162,12,0792,36,297
EBITDAINR mn31,87235,47637,94343,971
EBITDA Margin%17.818.517.918.6
PATINR mn22,02725,40227,03431,698
EPSINR91.4105.4112.2131.6
P/Ex59.151.248.241.1
EV/EBITDAx40.836.53429.2
RoE%53.153.752.356.4
RoCE%49.753.353.660.2

Valuation: 50x FY28E EPS. PL Capital values Britannia at 50x FY28E EPS to arrive at a TP of Rs.6,579, up from Rs.6,441 earlier, and retains BUY. PL Capital changed FY27E/FY28E EPS estimates by -1.7%/+2.1%, with FY27E/FY28E sales revised up 0.9%/0.9% and FY27E EBITDA cut 1.0% while FY28E EBITDA was raised 1.7%.

Extraction note: Report header text is from 'PL Research' (Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.); labelled broker as 'PL Capital' per the source filename convention. Two slightly different FY27E/FY28E EPS figures appear in the report (112.2/131.5 in the change-in-estimates box vs 112.2/131.6 in the fina…

Figures are transcribed from each broker's PDF as printed (units as the broker states them) and are the broker's estimates, not Buoyant's. "Vs our close" recomputes the target against the latest reference close (29 Sept 2026).

SWOT

Strengths · Weaknesses · Opportunities · Threats

Draft
Strengths
  • Volume recovery is real: ~9% volume growth in Q1FY27 (vs low-single digits in FY25) as biscuits moved from 18% to 5% GST on 22-Sep-2025 - Nomura estimated 80% of Britannia's Indian portfolio benefits, making it the biggest listed beneficiary of GST 2.0.
  • Best-in-class returns in Indian FMCG: ROE 53-56% for three years, ROCE 56%, dividend payout 84%; FY26 PAT +16% to Rs 2,537 cr on 6.7% revenue growth.
  • Premiumisation/adjacencies scaling: croissants at ~Rs 200 cr ARR growing 30%+, cakes/rusk/wafers in strong double digits, e-commerce in strong double-digit growth; new CEO Rakshit Hargave (ex-Birla Opus) executing general-trade expansion at 1.5x last year's pace.
  • Rural/mass tailwind: ~Rs 1.7 lakh cr of state cash transfers to ~120 mn women (marginal propensity to consume ~0.9 in Maharashtra study) flows disproportionately to Rs 5-10 biscuit packs.
Weaknesses
  • vs Nestle India: Nestle trades at 72.7x trailing PE vs Britannia 46.6x for a similar GST-2.0 beneficiary profile (67% vs 80% of portfolio); Nestle's Jun-26 sales jump (~25%) is partly base/pricing driven and its 0.9% yield is half Britannia's 1.8%.
  • vs Marico: Marico at 56.2x PE with Q1FY27 sales +50% driven mainly by copra/coconut-oil price pass-through (3-yr sales CAGR 12%); its margin is under pressure from commodity inflation whereas Britannia's input basket (wheat, sugar, palm) is more diversified and its ROE (56%) exceeds Marico's 43%.
Opportunities
  • Q2FY27 results (early Nov-2026): management guided a return to double-digit topline growth 'by the fag end of Q2FY27'; 1.5-2% price hikes flowing through should lift margin.
  • Festive quarter (Oct-Dec 2026) with full GST 2.0 base effect and state cash-transfer disbursements; NIQ data for Jul-Sep 2026 (due Nov-2026) will show whether food volume growth re-accelerates.
  • Board decisions on capital allocation (dairy/adjacency capex, possible special dividend given 84% payout and Rs 5,100 cr net worth) and PLI incentive recognition (none booked in FY26/Q1FY27).
Threats
  • Input-cost inflation (LPG/CNG, palm oil, sugar, packaging from crude spikes and West Asia conflict) with only ~50% mitigated by pricing in Q1FY27 - EBITDA margin (16.8%) is below the 18-19% of FY24-FY26 and PL cut FY27/28 EPS 4-5%.
  • Competitive dual-pricing disruption in the 60-65% mass segment (competitors kept old MRPs post-GST) and Oman/UAE production shift cost ~1-1.5% of sales; double-digit topline not expected until end-Q2FY27.
  • Slow structural growth: 5-yr sales CAGR 7.8% and profit CAGR 6% (screener); at 47x trailing and 23.8x book any volume relapse compresses the multiple further (stock -17% YoY).

Compiled from the approved one-pager (Why We Own What We Own, 8 Sep 2026): why-we-own → strengths, catalysts → opportunities, key risks → threats, peer caveats → weaknesses. Editorial mapping pending review. · author: compiled from the approved one-pager

Research reports · upload with a check step

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Internal evidence

Buoyant sources for this name

  • August 2026 top-30 disclosure — rank 21, FMCG, Cyclical. Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf
  • One-pager, "Why We Own What We Own" — p34, 8 Sep 2026. Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026)
  • Sales playbook, Aug 2026 — holdings matrix (PMS/AIF I/AIF II, $31 Jul 2026). Buoyant_Capital_Sales_Playbook_Aug_2026_Full_Holdings.pdf

Original PDFs are in the supplied package on disk; private object storage is not configured, so source pages are referenced, not served.

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Ownership

Shareholding · Jun'26

Promoter50.55%
Indian Promoters0.01%
NESS NUSLI WADIA0.01%
HAVENKORES REAL ESTATES PRIVATE LIMITED0.00%
RISHAYA CREATIONS PRIVATE LIMITED0.00%
PANELLA FOODS AND BEVERAGES PRIVATE LIMITED0.00%
PARADISO ENTERTAINMENT PRIVATE LIMITED0.00%
PLACID PLANTATIONS LIMITED0.00%
HEERA HOLDINGS AND LEASING PRIVATE LIMITED0.00%
ROSHNARA INVESTMENT AND TRADING COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED0.00%
SAHARA INVESTMENTS PVT LTD0.00%
HARVARD PLANTATIONS LIMITED0.00%
Foreign Promoters50.54%
ASSOCIATED BISCUITS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED44.76%