NSE: CHAMBLFERT· ChemicalsNot in Aug top-30Small cap
Chambal Fertilisers
10x P/E urea + TAN
- Last close
- ₹413.55
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- −1.2% · −1.9%
- price-only
- Weight
- 0.9%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank —
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p65
What the business is
Approved description
Chambal Fertilisers (K.K. Birla group) is India's largest private-sector urea producer with three gas-based plants at Gadepan, Rajasthan, and also trades/markets DAP, MOP and complex fertilisers plus a fast-growing crop-protection, specialty-nutrient, seeds and biologicals business (17 launches in FY26, 3 mn acres under biologicals). It commissioned a Rs 1,645 cr, 2.4 lakh tpa Technical Ammonium Nitrate plant (with 2.1 lakh tpa weak nitric acid) on 20-Aug-2026 using surplus ammonia, entering the mining-explosives market.
Why we own it · 5 approved reasons
- 01Cheapest quality name in the portfolio: 8.7x TTM / 9.6x FY27e / 8.7x FY28e PE, 2.6% dividend yield, ROE 20.8% and ROCE 25.4% (FY26), near-net-cash balance sheet (borrowings Rs 1,068 cr vs equity Rs 10,408 cr).
- 02Earnings have been resilient through the gas shock: FY26 PAT Rs 1,953 cr (+18%), Q1FY27 EBITDA Rs 826 cr (+9% YoY) with margin up to 16.4% even as revenue fell 12%.
- 03New non-subsidy earnings stream: 2.4 lakh tpa TAN plant (Rs 1,645 cr capex, Casale technology, L&T EPC) began commercial production 20-Aug-2026, described as high-margin and import-substituting for mining explosives.
- 04Non-urea growth engines: complex-fertiliser EBIT +67% and crop-protection/specialty EBIT +13% in Q1FY27; biologicals revenue +57% in FY26; 15 more launches planned for FY27.
- 05Policy tailwind: government kept the FY27 urea subsidy at Rs 1.168 lakh crore and is discussing a new urea investment policy supportive of brownfield expansion by efficient producers like Chambal.
Price
Reference close, with results-period markers
Close as of 29 Sept 2026
- 1Q Sep-25 end · 30 Sept 2025
- 2Q Dec-25 end · 31 Dec 2025
- 3Q Mar-26 end · 31 Mar 2026
- 4Q Jun-26 end · 30 Jun 2026
Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution). Price-only series (split-adjusted; dividends excluded). Gaps are non-trading days.
1D
−1.2%
28 Sept 2026
1W
−1.2%
22 Sept 2026
1M
−1.9%
28 Aug 2026
3M
−12.8%
29 Jun 2026
6M
−1.5%
27 Mar 2026
1Y
−18.7%
29 Sept 2025
Buoyant Screener
Quality score, technicals and Buoyant Score
Computing the scorecard…
Results centre
Latest quarter · Q Jun-26
| Line (₹ cr) | Q Jun-26 | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 5,027 | −11.8% | +80.5% |
| Operating Profit | 851 | +11.8% | +233.7% |
| Net Profit | 524 | −4.6% | +210.1% |
Implication for thesisBroadly unchanged · per 8 Sep 2026 reviewQ1FY27 (Jun-26): revenue 5,027 (-11.8% YoY), PAT 524 (-4.6%)
Reported vs internal estimate: internal quarterly estimates are not in the supplied package; consensus feed not licensed. YoY/QoQ per PRD §12.5 (transitions, not %, on non-positive bases).
Key facts
Position and valuation context
0.9%
Weight, 31 Jul 2026
Aug rank — · —
₹17,863 cr
Market cap, July 2026 research sheet
Tijori latest: 16,753 Cr
9.6x
P/E FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 8.7x
19.7%
ROE FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 19.1%
8.7x
P/E trailing (Tijori)
18.77%
ROE latest FY (Tijori)
ROCE 19.49%
Commodity/cyclical preset: volumes, realisations, unit cost, mid-cycle earnings, leverage.
Investment case and valuation
Valuation range
No headline target on this page; the book quotes the thesis and the risk rather than a target.
₹418
Price (2026-09-07)
9.6x / 8.7x
FY27E / FY28E P/E (Buoyant sheet)
19.7%
FY27E ROE (Buoyant sheet)
8.7x
Trailing P/E
1.6x
Price / book
2%
EPS CAGR FY26–28E
Next catalysts · material risks
What we watch
Catalysts
- TAN plant commercial production started 20-Aug-2026 - first full-quarter contribution in Q3FY27 (Jan-2027 results).
- Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026) showing urea volume normalisation as gas allocation recovered to 76% of requirement and kharif demand.
- Government notification of the new urea investment policy / any hike in NBS rates for rabi 2026-27 (Oct-2026), and Hormuz de-escalation lowering LNG costs.
Key risks
- Gas availability/price: Chambal's Gadepan plants run on RLNG; renewed Hormuz disruption or spot LNG spikes cut urea volumes (Q1FY27 urea revenue Rs 2,860 cr 'despite production challenges') and energy-norm reimbursement lags.
- Subsidy/working-capital risk: FY27 subsidy budget (Rs 1.71 lakh cr) is well below likely outgo (Rs 2 lakh cr+), risking delayed payments; screener shows debtor days up from 16 to 36.
- Traded-fertiliser (DAP/MOP) margins depend on government NBS rates vs import cost (DAP import dependence ~50%); TAN ramp-up and explosives-market pricing are unproven.
Sources: · fundamentals Tijori Finance (company filings), pulled locally via MCP batch; not licensed for redistribution · prices Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution).