NSE: DALBHARAT· Building MaterialsValue · Aug 26Mid cap

Dalmia Bharat

Value: south/east capacity at half the EV/t

Last close
₹1,637.40
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−0.9% · −11.3%
price-only
Weight
2.4%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 18
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p51
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Commissioning of the 3 mtpa Belgaum unit in Q4FY27 (Jan-Mar 2027) - first step to 66.7 mtpa.
    C1
  • Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026) showing JP assets' ramp (first shipment 20-Jun-2026) and whether the South price hikes held through the monsoon.
    C2
  • Any further bolt-on acquisition at or below replacement cost, or a re-rating as leverage stays below 2x through the capex cycle.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • East-India pricing remains depressed (management declined to guide on East prices) and Q2FY27 costs are guided up Rs 70-80/t, so EBITDA/tonne could slip below Rs 1,000 in the monsoon quarter.
    R1
  • Integration risk: the JP assets need 7-8 quarters to reach Dalmia's normal EBITDA/tonne, and net debt tripled QoQ to Rs 4,431 cr with Rs 3,200-3,400 cr of FY27 capex still to spend.
    R2
  • Structurally low ROE (6.1% FY26, 5% three-year) and five-year sales CAGR of only 8%; screener flags both; earnings have been downgraded by some brokers to Sell/Hold in early 2026.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01East-India pricing remains depressed (management declined to guide on East prices) and Q2FY27 costs are guided up Rs 70-80/t, so EBITDA/tonne could slip below Rs 1,000 in the monsoon quarter.Research · post 2QFY27
02Integration risk: the JP assets need 7-8 quarters to reach Dalmia's normal EBITDA/tonne, and net debt tripled QoQ to Rs 4,431 cr with Rs 3,200-3,400 cr of FY27 capex still to spend.Research · post 2QFY27
03Structurally low ROE (6.1% FY26, 5% three-year) and five-year sales CAGR of only 8%; screener flags both; earnings have been downgraded by some brokers to Sell/Hold in early 2026.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Commissioning of the 3 mtpa Belgaum unit in Q4FY27 (Jan-Mar 2027) - first step to 66.7 mtpa.
  • 02Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026) showing JP assets' ramp (first shipment 20-Jun-2026) and whether the South price hikes held through the monsoon.
  • 03Any further bolt-on acquisition at or below replacement cost, or a re-rating as leverage stays below 2x through the capex cycle.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 1,637 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.