NSE: GRANULES· HealthCareNot in Aug top-30Small cap

Granules India

Value: integrated API-formulations

Last close
₹866.75
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
+1.8% · +3.6%
price-only
Weight
0.7%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank —
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p44
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • USFDA re-inspection and closure of the Gagillapur warning letter (timing unannounced as of Jul-2026).
    C1
  • Sodium oxybate ER (sole FTF) approval/launch and further complex generic approvals from the 25 pending ANDAs.
    C2
  • Senn peptide CDMO scale-up toward USD 50 mn revenue; Q2FY27 results (Nov-2026) to confirm 23%+ margins.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • Gagillapur (Hyderabad) USFDA warning letter (issued 26-Feb-2025) remains active pending re-inspection; 7 of 8 sites have clean EIRs but no re-inspection date (Jul-2026).
    R1
  • Concentration: North America 72% of revenue and paracetamol/metformin-type molecules exposed to US price erosion and 26% reciprocal-tariff risk flagged by analysts.
    R2
  • Management stepped back from its 24-25% EBITDA margin guidance in Q1FY27; promoter holding only 38% and down ~4pp over 3 years.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01Gagillapur (Hyderabad) USFDA warning letter (issued 26-Feb-2025) remains active pending re-inspection; 7 of 8 sites have clean EIRs but no re-inspection date (Jul-2026).Research · post 2QFY27
02Concentration: North America 72% of revenue and paracetamol/metformin-type molecules exposed to US price erosion and 26% reciprocal-tariff risk flagged by analysts.Research · post 2QFY27
03Management stepped back from its 24-25% EBITDA margin guidance in Q1FY27; promoter holding only 38% and down ~4pp over 3 years.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01USFDA re-inspection and closure of the Gagillapur warning letter (timing unannounced as of Jul-2026).
  • 02Sodium oxybate ER (sole FTF) approval/launch and further complex generic approvals from the 25 pending ANDAs.
  • 03Senn peptide CDMO scale-up toward USD 50 mn revenue; Q2FY27 results (Nov-2026) to confirm 23%+ margins.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 867 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.