NSE: ICICIBANK· BankingCore · Aug 26Large cap

ICICI Bank

Anchor: the compounding franchise

Last close
₹1,292.20
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−0.8% · −9.2%
price-only
Weight
7.0%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 1
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p27
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • 2QFY27 results (Oct-26): NIM stabilisation above 4.2% (model basis) and deposit growth re-accelerating past 14%.
    C1
  • Contingency-provision release or write-back as the agri/retail cycle stays benign.
    C2
  • Return of FPI flows to Indian financials once the rupee and crude stabilise — ICICI is the first port of call.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • Valuation: at 2.5x core book the stock discounts an 18% ROE for a decade; any slip in growth or a credit-cost surprise above 60 bp would de-rate it 15–20%.
    R1
  • Margin: NIM has fallen 25 bp since the rate cuts began; a further 15–20 bp compression without deposit repricing would cut FY27E EPS ~5%.
    R2
  • FII selling: ICICI is among the largest foreign holdings in India; mechanical outflows can depress the multiple without touching fundamentals.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    Clear
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01Valuation: at 2.5x core book the stock discounts an 18% ROE for a decade; any slip in growth or a credit-cost surprise above 60 bp would de-rate it 15–20%.Research · post 2QFY27
02Margin: NIM has fallen 25 bp since the rate cuts began; a further 15–20 bp compression without deposit repricing would cut FY27E EPS ~5%.Research · post 2QFY27
03FII selling: ICICI is among the largest foreign holdings in India; mechanical outflows can depress the multiple without touching fundamentals.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 012QFY27 results (Oct-26): NIM stabilisation above 4.2% (model basis) and deposit growth re-accelerating past 14%.
  • 02Contingency-provision release or write-back as the agri/retail cycle stays benign.
  • 03Return of FPI flows to Indian financials once the rupee and crude stabilise — ICICI is the first port of call.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 1,292 vs base target 1,400.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.