NSE: INFY· Info TechNot in Aug top-30Large cap

Infosys

Tactical IT floor trade

Last close
₹1,015.40
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
+1.2% · −11.2%
price-only
Weight
0.7%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank —
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p49
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Q2FY27 results (mid-Oct 2026): any narrowing of the guidance band toward the top end (3%) or margin above 21.5% would trigger upgrades from a 14x base.
    C1
  • FY27 interim dividend (Oct-2026) and possible next buyback given ~85% FCF payout policy and Rs 18,000 cr buyback completed Dec-2025.
    C2
  • Large-deal ramps ($3.6 bn Q1 TCV, 61% net new) converting into H2 FY27 revenue; AI revenue share moving above 10%.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • Structural AI deflation: if agentic tools compress billable effort faster than new AI spend arrives, organic growth stays ~0% and the 13-16x target multiples brokers now use become the ceiling, not the floor.
    R1
  • US macro/visa/tariff shocks and client-specific project terminations (PL Capital cited one in Q1) - 60%+ revenue from North America.
    R2
  • Low promoter holding (13.8%, -0.56% QoQ) means no anchor buyer; DIIs already hold 42.8% so incremental domestic support is limited.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01Structural AI deflation: if agentic tools compress billable effort faster than new AI spend arrives, organic growth stays ~0% and the 13-16x target multiples brokers now use become the ceiling, not the floor.Research · post 2QFY27
02US macro/visa/tariff shocks and client-specific project terminations (PL Capital cited one in Q1) - 60%+ revenue from North America.Research · post 2QFY27
03Low promoter holding (13.8%, -0.56% QoQ) means no anchor buyer; DIIs already hold 42.8% so incremental domestic support is limited.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Q2FY27 results (mid-Oct 2026): any narrowing of the guidance band toward the top end (3%) or margin above 21.5% would trigger upgrades from a 14x base.
  • 02FY27 interim dividend (Oct-2026) and possible next buyback given ~85% FCF payout policy and Rs 18,000 cr buyback completed Dec-2025.
  • 03Large-deal ramps ($3.6 bn Q1 TCV, 61% net new) converting into H2 FY27 revenue; AI revenue share moving above 10%.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 1,015 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.