NSE: INDIGO· MiscCyclical · Aug 26Large cap

InterGlobe Aviation

67% share; bought at the fuel trough

Last close
₹4,872.00
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−0.1% · −5.7%
price-only
Weight
2.7%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 14
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p56
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Q2FY27 results (late Oct/early Nov 2026): guided PRASK +25% YoY, flattish capacity - a return to profit would validate the fuel-only thesis.
    C1
  • Monthly ATF resets (1-Oct, 1-Nov 2026) and any de-escalation in West Asia / Strait of Hormuz lowering crack spreads.
    C2
  • Winter schedule international expansion (A321XLR/A350 inductions) and DGCA monthly share data showing continued 65%+ share.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • Sustained ATF above Rs 120-140/l (fuel ~40% of costs) with a weak rupee would keep FY27 loss-making; Buoyant's 141x FY27e implies very thin earnings.
    R1
  • Demand elasticity: July-2026 domestic traffic already fell 4.8% YoY as fares rose; further yield increases may not stick.
    R2
  • Promoter overhang: promoter holding down 26.2 pts over 3 years to 41.6% as the Gangwal family exits; plus large lease liabilities (borrowings Rs 77,749 cr).
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01Sustained ATF above Rs 120-140/l (fuel ~40% of costs) with a weak rupee would keep FY27 loss-making; Buoyant's 141x FY27e implies very thin earnings.Research · post 2QFY27
02Demand elasticity: July-2026 domestic traffic already fell 4.8% YoY as fares rose; further yield increases may not stick.Research · post 2QFY27
03Promoter overhang: promoter holding down 26.2 pts over 3 years to 41.6% as the Gangwal family exits; plus large lease liabilities (borrowings Rs 77,749 cr).Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Q2FY27 results (late Oct/early Nov 2026): guided PRASK +25% YoY, flattish capacity - a return to profit would validate the fuel-only thesis.
  • 02Monthly ATF resets (1-Oct, 1-Nov 2026) and any de-escalation in West Asia / Strait of Hormuz lowering crack spreads.
  • 03Winter schedule international expansion (A321XLR/A350 inductions) and DGCA monthly share data showing continued 65%+ share.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 4,872 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.