NSE: LT· IndustrialsCore · Aug 26Large cap

Larsen & Toubro

Executor of the capex cycle at a cyclical multiple

Last close
₹3,749.10
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−0.5% · −7.3%
price-only
Weight
2.4%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 16
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p52
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Completion of the Rs 1,461 cr Hyderabad Metro stake sale to Hyderabad Metro Rail Ltd (deadline extended to 30-Sep-2026) and release of associated guarantees.
    C1
  • H2FY27 order-inflow and margin recovery that management guided for (H1 soft, H2 stronger) - Q2FY27 results in late Oct/early Nov 2026.
    C2
  • Conversion of the Rs 15 trn prospect pipeline, especially large Middle East hydrocarbon and offshore-wind awards, and any further non-core divestments.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • Geopolitical/execution risk in the Middle East (37% of order book): West Asia disruptions already cut green-energy revenue 11% YoY in Q1FY27 and cost ~Rs 5,000 cr of Q4FY26 revenue.
    R1
  • Margin compression: EBITDA margin fell to 9.0% in Q1FY27 from 9.9%, FY26 core margin (8.3%) and revenue growth (12%) both missed guidance, and FY26 order inflows fell 3% YoY.
    R2
  • Capital-intensive diversification under Lakshya 31 (Rs 15,000 cr green hydrogen, Rs 10,000 cr data centres, Rs 3,000 cr semiconductors) could dilute ROE if returns lag the core EPC business.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01Geopolitical/execution risk in the Middle East (37% of order book): West Asia disruptions already cut green-energy revenue 11% YoY in Q1FY27 and cost ~Rs 5,000 cr of Q4FY26 revenue.Research · post 2QFY27
02Margin compression: EBITDA margin fell to 9.0% in Q1FY27 from 9.9%, FY26 core margin (8.3%) and revenue growth (12%) both missed guidance, and FY26 order inflows fell 3% YoY.Research · post 2QFY27
03Capital-intensive diversification under Lakshya 31 (Rs 15,000 cr green hydrogen, Rs 10,000 cr data centres, Rs 3,000 cr semiconductors) could dilute ROE if returns lag the core EPC business.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Completion of the Rs 1,461 cr Hyderabad Metro stake sale to Hyderabad Metro Rail Ltd (deadline extended to 30-Sep-2026) and release of associated guarantees.
  • 02H2FY27 order-inflow and margin recovery that management guided for (H1 soft, H2 stronger) - Q2FY27 results in late Oct/early Nov 2026.
  • 03Conversion of the Rs 15 trn prospect pipeline, especially large Middle East hydrocarbon and offshore-wind awards, and any further non-core divestments.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 3,749 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.