NSE: SHRIRAMFIN· NBFCCore · Aug 26Large cap

Shriram Finance

Used-CV leader with MUFG as partner

Last close
₹971.50
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−0.5% · −10.6%
price-only
Weight
3.5%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 6
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p39
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026): first full quarter of MUFG capital plus monsoon-season asset-quality read…
    C1
  • Funding-cost pass-through: incremental cost of funds 7.77% vs 8.56% stock cost; each 25 bps of rate cuts / credit-rating benefit from MUFG flows to NIM through FY27.
    C2
  • Final RBI revolving-credit rules (post 28-Aug-2026 consultation) could redirect flows toward secured vehicle/gold lenders like Shriram.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • ROE dilution: 25% more shares post-MUFG means ROE mechanically falls (brokers model 13-14% by FY28 vs 16.4% in FY26) unless AUM growth accelerates to 18-20%; promoter holding fell to 20.3%.
    R1
  • Asset quality is weather/rural-cycle sensitive: management flagged a 'cautious outlook pending Q2 data due to weather impacts'; GS3 ticked up 6 bps QoQ to 4.64% and PCR is only ~50%.
    R2
  • NIM at 9.04% is above the 8.5% medium-term level management itself guides to; part of Q1's 60% PAT growth is one-time leverage from undeployed equity.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01ROE dilution: 25% more shares post-MUFG means ROE mechanically falls (brokers model 13-14% by FY28 vs 16.4% in FY26) unless AUM growth accelerates to 18-20%; promoter holding fell to 20.3%.Research · post 2QFY27
02Asset quality is weather/rural-cycle sensitive: management flagged a 'cautious outlook pending Q2 data due to weather impacts'; GS3 ticked up 6 bps QoQ to 4.64% and PCR is only ~50%.Research · post 2QFY27
03NIM at 9.04% is above the 8.5% medium-term level management itself guides to; part of Q1's 60% PAT growth is one-time leverage from undeployed equity.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026): first full quarter of MUFG capital plus monsoon-season asset-quality read…
  • 02Funding-cost pass-through: incremental cost of funds 7.77% vs 8.56% stock cost; each 25 bps of rate cuts / credit-rating benefit from MUFG flows to NIM through FY27.
  • 03Final RBI revolving-credit rules (post 28-Aug-2026 consultation) could redirect flows toward secured vehicle/gold lenders like Shriram.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 972 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.