State Bank of India
Cheapest large bank; funding moat
- Last close
- ₹964.70
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- +0.3% · −7.9%
- price-only
- Weight
- 4.0%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 3
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p29
52-week range, house target and street targets
- Reference close₹965
- House target (internal)₹1,292
- Antique Stock Broking Limited · BUY₹1,315
Range from reference closes; street targets from the PDFs on file (Research & documents). Internal target is never shown to prospects.
Approved model, 8 Sep 2026 review
Bank valuations use the capital-adjusted residual-income framework from the September 2026 initiation (fair core P/B, ROE discounted by the price). Full assumptions are on the model table on the Financials tab.
- Model date
- 8 Sep 2026 (prices 7–8 Sep 2026)
- Horizon
- 12 months (bank pages: Sep-2027 roll-forward)
- Audience
- Internal — the book's guardrail: do not quote a target to a client; quote the thesis and the risk
- Reviewer · version
- Investment Committee framework · v1 (book)
Trailing multiples, FY-end
| Ratio | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 967.0x | n.m. | 124.0x | 8.9x | 14.5x | 12.5x | 8.4x | 10.0x | 8.9x | 10.9x |
| Price to Book Value | 1.3x | 1.1x | 1.4x | 0.8x | 1.3x | 1.6x | 1.4x | 1.7x | 1.5x | 1.6x |
Tijori FY-end multiples on reported earnings/book; compatible definitions across years, but not the same basis as Buoyant's forward P/E on internal EPS.
Target price: terminal ROE × cost of equity (₹/share incl. subsidiaries)
| Terminal ROE \ COE | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5% | 1,156 | 1,084 | 1,023 | 969 | 922 |
| 13.0% | 1,323 | 1,234 | 1,157 | 1,091 | 1,033 |
| 14.5% | 1,490 | 1,383 | 1,292 | 1,213 | 1,144 |
| 16.0% | 1,656 | 1,533 | 1,427 | 1,335 | 1,255 |
| 17.5% | 1,823 | 1,682 | 1,561 | 1,457 | 1,366 |
Approved base case highlighted. Scenarios. Bull (25%): growth +2 pp, NIM +12 bp, credit cost −12 bp, terminal ROE 16% → ₹1,732 (+72%). Bear (25%): growth −4 pp, NIM −20 bp, credit cost +35 bp, terminal ROE 12% → ₹732 (−27%). The skew is roughly 2.6:1. The shocks that matter most are growth and credit cost: a 5 pp cut to loan and deposit growth in every year takes ₹233 off the target (to ₹1,059); a 50 bp higher credit cost throughout takes ₹218 (to ₹1,074); a 25 bp rise in deposit costs that does not reprice (NIM −15 bp) takes ₹87 (to ₹1,205). All three leave the stock above today's price.
| Metric | Nuvama (Jun-26) | MOFSL (Aug-26) | Buoyant |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAT (₹ cr) | 79,912 | 85,180 | 85,044 |
| EPS (₹) | 86.6 | 92.3 | 92.1 |
| ROA (%) | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| ROE (%) | 14.5 | 15.9 | 14.7 |
| Loan growth (%) | 15.1 | 14.5 | 15.0 |
| Credit cost (%) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Target price (₹) | 1,250 | 1,370 | 1,292 |
| Rating | BUY | BUY | BUY |
Two-driver sensitivity: forward EPS × forward P/E
| EPS \ P/E | 9.8x | 11.0x | 12.2x | 13.4x | 14.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83.4 | ₹814 −16% | ₹916 −5% | ₹1,018 +6% | ₹1,120 +16% | ₹1,222 +27% |
| 93.9 | ₹916 −5% | ₹1,031 +7% | ₹1,145 +19% | ₹1,260 +31% | ₹1,374 +42% |
| 104.3 | ₹1,018 +6% | ₹1,145 +19% | ₹1,272 +32% | ₹1,400 +45% | ₹1,527 +58% |
| 114.7 | ₹1,120 +16% | ₹1,260 +31% | ₹1,400 +45% | ₹1,540 +60% | ₹1,680 +74% |
| 125.2 | ₹1,222 +27% | ₹1,374 +42% | ₹1,527 +58% | ₹1,680 +74% | ₹1,832 +90% |