Varun Beverages

Peer numbers are shown only where the peer is in the security master (fundamentals pulled); "n/a" otherwise — a peer is not added to the data pull without a research request. Reasons are quoted from the one-pager (8 Sep 2026).

Nestlé India is a superb business at 60x+ with the least GST benefit and the slowest volume growth of the group; ITC is cigarettes-led (we specifically exclude cigarettes from the volume thesis) and now a hotels demerger story; Dabur and Godrej Consumer have weaker execution and portfolio issues (honey/chyawanprash seasonality; GCPL's African drag). Marico is a copra-cost story, not a volume story. Tata Consumer pays 60x for tea. In discretionary, V-Mart and ABFRL lack Trent's unit economics and balance sheet, and Shoppers Stop is the wrong price point for a transfer-led recovery.

HUL (3.3%, Core) is the broadest single lever on the volume recovery — 60% of its portfolio saw GST cuts, a new CEO is resetting the portfolio and the stock has de-rated to ~42x FY27E. Trent (3.1%, Core) is our discretionary expression: Zudio's 982 stores (from ~240 four years ago) are 80%+ in tier-2/3 towns where the transfers land, and the whole assortment sits under the ₹2,500 GST threshold. Britannia (2.0%, Core) is the cleanest GST beneficiary (biscuits 18% → 5%) with a 50%+ ROE and a multiple at the low end of its own decade. Varun Beverages (1.0%, Core) is the rural-distribution and Africa-growth story at 40x versus 55–70x in 2023–24.