07 /India top-down · 3 of 3 · chapter 10 · Agriculture

Cereals, pulses & the grain economy.

GVA FY26
₹8.5 lakh cr
2.7% of national GVA
FY35E base case
₹14.5 lakh cr
1.9% of GVA
Growth to FY35
6.7% to FY30
5.7% FY30–35
Listed companies
91
₹4.25 L cr market cap
History and projection

Gross value added

lighter bars = Atlas projections; ticks = bull / bear cases
In one paragraph

What this industry is

Cereals and pulses cover India's foodgrain cultivation - rice, wheat, maize, other coarse grains and pulses - grown across 146 million mostly sub-two-hectare holdings and supported by MSP-based procurement, a ₹2 lakh crore food subsidy and a ₹1.7 lakh crore fertiliser subsidy. It is the largest food-security activity in the economy by workforce (~115 million people) but the smallest per worker in value terms, producing an estimated ₹8.5 lakh crore of GVA in FY26 (2.7% of national GVA, 15% of agriculture GVA). Its trajectory is one of scale without productivity: nominal GVA has compounded at roughly 8% a year since FY05, slower than the 11% economy-wide rate, so its share of national GVA has fallen from about 3.8% in FY05 to 2.7% in FY26 and is projected to fall further to 1.9% by FY35E as horticulture, dairy and fisheries grow faster. Growth is driven by a mix of yield gains (roughly 1.5-2% a year) and MSP inflation (5.0% a year for wheat, 4.7% for paddy since FY15), with almost no direct corporate or listed-equity participation in cultivation itself - the only listed touchpoints are basmati millers/exporters and branded-staples players.

Estimated GVA
8.5 ₹ lakh crore · FY26
Gross value of output (farm-gate, incl. by-products)
~11 ₹ lakh crore · FY26
Foodgrain output
354 million tonnes · FY25
Rice output
149 million tonnes · FY25
Wheat output
118 million tonnes · FY25
Maize output
42 million tonnes · FY25
Pulses output
25 million tonnes · FY25
Employment
~115 million workers · FY26

Source: India: The Economic & Equity Market Atlas, September 2026, pages 67–72; base year 2022-23. Note: FY05/FY10 figures are on the 2004-05 national-accounts base, FY15/FY20 on the 2011-12 base, and FY26 on the 2022-23 base (level breaks at FY12 and FY23, not spliced); pre-FY23 industry values are the