Chemicals: commodity, specialty, agrochemicals, paints & fertilisers.

Chemicals (excluding petrochemical polymers, pharmaceuticals and personal care) is a ₹3.4 lakh crore GVA industry in FY26 — 1.1% of national GVA and 7.3% of manufacturing GVA — spanning a regulated fertiliser system that runs on a ₹1.7–1.9 lakh crore subsidy, a paints oligopoly now in its first real share war in two decades, an export-led specialty and fluorochemicals cluster, and a large fragmented commodity base concentrated in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Nominal GVA has compounded at about 10.7% a year since FY05, roughly in line with GDP, but its GVA share has drifted down from 1.35% to 1.08% as an unusually violent price cycle (FY22–FY23 boom, FY24–FY26 Chinese-led deflation) offset steady 7–8% volume growth. The industry runs a structural US$57 bn trade deficit (about US$30 bn of exports against US$87 bn of imports of chemicals and plastics), reflecting India's lack of a naphtha-to-downstream chain beyond Reliance's, and it is one of the most over-represented activities in the equity market, with roughly 230 listed companies worth ₹19.5 lakh crore against a 1.1% GVA share (Equity Representation Ratio ≈3.7). Growth to FY30/FY35 (base case 11.2%/11.6% CAGR to ₹5.2 LC/₹9.0 LC) is anchored by construction, farm income and industrial demand for volumes, with the direction of chemical prices — recovery, flat Chinese overcapacity, or an accelerated China-plus-one export shift — as the key swing factor.

Estimated GVA

3.4 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Revenue pool (incl. fertiliser subsidy)

9–10 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Profit pool

≈0.7 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Employment

≈2.0 million · FY26

Chemical exports

30 US$ bn · FY26

Chemicals & plastics imports

87 US$ bn · FY26

Trade deficit

57 US$ bn · FY26

Listed market cap

19.5 ₹ lakh crore · Sep-26