Capital goods & industrial machinery.

Capital goods and industrial machinery covers domestic makers of machine tools, process plant, construction equipment, pumps, compressors, bearings, engines and automation, an estimated ₹2.3 lakh crore of GVA in FY26 (0.73% of national GVA, 4.9% of manufacturing) against ₹6.5 lakh crore of gross output and US$73 bn of imports (about 40% of domestic demand). The industry tracks the capex cycle with a two-to-four quarter lag: it grew 17% a year in the FY05-FY12 investment boom, under 6% in the FY12-FY20 capex stall, and about 14% a year since FY21 as listed-company capex rose 2.3x since FY19. It is fragmented in aggregate (HHI below 200) but concentrated within segments (JCB ~40% of construction equipment, BHEL 55-60% of thermal capacity, SKF/Schaeffler/Timken ~70% of organised bearings), with multinational subsidiaries holding about a third of GVA and a larger share of profit. The base case sees GVA reaching ₹3.8 lakh crore by FY30 and ₹6.6 lakh crore by FY35, but the listed sector's 62.8x PE (versus a 48.4x ten-year average and an Equity Representation Ratio of 8.3, the highest in the Atlas) makes it, in the chapter's own words, the widest gap between narrative and economics in the Atlas.

Estimated GVA

2.3 ₹ LC · FY26

% of national GVA

0.73 % · FY26

% of manufacturing GVA

4.9 % · FY26

Revenue pool (domestic machinery output, gross sales)

~6.5 ₹ LC · FY26

Machinery imports

73 US$ bn · FY26

Machinery imports as % of domestic demand

~40 % · FY26

Machinery exports

28 US$ bn · FY26

Machinery & equipment GFCF

28.8 ₹ LC (26% of GFCF) · FY26