Aviation.

Air transport and airports add an estimated ₹0.6 lakh crore of value in FY26 (0.19% of national GVA), carrying about 230 million passengers (165 million domestic, 68 million international) and 3.5 million tonnes of cargo, making India the third-largest domestic aviation market and the one with the most aircraft on order (over 1,500, more than the fleet in service). The industry converts income growth into passengers at an elasticity of about 1.5 but passengers into profit at an elasticity that is often negative, because fuel, dollar-denominated leases and taxes together take about 61% of every ₹100 of airfare, leaving listed airlines with a loss in FY26 despite the FY24-FY25 profit recovery. Structurally it is a concentrated duopoly-with-a-fringe (IndiGo 65% of domestic seats, Air India 27%, Akasa 5%, SpiceJet 2%) sitting atop airports increasingly owned by AAI, Adani and GMR. The base case sees nominal GVA compound at 13.6% a year to FY30 and 11.2% to FY35 (₹1.0 lakh crore and ₹1.7 lakh crore) as passengers reach 355 million by FY30 and 510 million by FY35, the fleet nearly doubles, and airport capacity roughly doubles, though the profit pool stays thin (2-4% of revenue) as 12%-a-year capacity growth keeps yields flat.

Passengers

~230 mn (domestic 165 mn +4%, international 68 mn) · FY26

Air cargo

3.5 mn tonnes · FY26

Listed aviation revenue

0.87 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Listed aviation PAT

-0.02 ₹ lakh crore (vs +0.08 LC FY25) · FY26

Listed market cap

~3.1 ₹ lakh crore (airlines ₹2.1 LC + GMR Airports ₹0.9 LC) · FY26 (Jul-2026 spot)

Aircraft on order

1,500+ aircraft (fleet in service ~850) · FY26

Air trips per capita

0.16 trips/capita (China 0.5, Indonesia 0.3, US 2.8) · FY26

Employment

~0.4 mn (airlines ~0.1 mn; airports, ground handling, MRO, ATC ~0.3 mn) · FY26