buoyantintelligence
  • 01Overview
  • 02Portfolio
  • 03Company Atlas
    • Buoyant book
    • All listed companies
  • 04Screener & valuation
  • 05House view
  • 06Markets
  • 07India top-down
  • 08Investors
  • 09Library & data
Release
August 2026 · rev 1
Opportunities PMS · Published
As at 31 Aug 2026 · IST₹ · ₹ cr · BSE 500 TRI
Present
Internal working platform. Published figures are extracted from the August 2026 source package and reviewed; reference prices and fundamentals are unlicensed working data, not for redistribution. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Company Atlas/NBFC/Bajaj Finance
NSE: BAJFINANCE· NBFCCore · Aug 26Large cap

Bajaj Finance

Highest-ROE scaled lender

Last close
₹973.80
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−1.1% · −9.8%
price-only
Weight
3.5%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 5
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p40
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf · p1Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026) · p40Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
OverviewBusiness & segmentsChartsFinancialsValuationThesisRisks & catalystsCompetitorsResearch & documents
Broker research · 2 reports

Sell-side views, extracted from the PDFs on file

Antique Stock Broking LimitedBUYdailymulti-company
Antique's Morning Presentation - From The Research Desk (Indian Banking Sector; NBFC 1QFY27 Review; Cement; FMCG)
19 Aug 2026 · Manjith Nair, Pashmi Chheda, Raju Barnawal · 86 pp · open PDF ↗
Target
₹1,240
At report
₹1,093
Vs our close
+27.3%

Bajaj Finance (BAF) delivered a strong Q1FY27 PAT beat (~6%) on lower credit costs and broad-based book growth; Antique rates it BUY within its NBFC coverage.

Key points
  • Q1FY27: AUM Rs 54,69,440 mn (+23.9% YoY/7.2% QoQ); PAT Rs 60,806 mn (+27.6% YoY/9.5% QoQ)
  • NIM 9.5% (+4bps QoQ) on 10bps yield increase; credit cost improved to 1.5% (-11bps QoQ); GS3/NS3 stable at 0.96%/0.39%
  • Growth led by strong traction in Rural B2C, Rural B2B, gold loans and MFI
  • Management guides ~22-24% AUM growth with NIM compression of 10-15bps in FY27, to be reassessed after 2QFY27

Extraction note: This is a very long (86-page) multi-sector daily; only sections/data relevant to tracked portfolio companies were extracted in depth. The daily's Banking sector report (pages 3-60) also covers non-portfolio banks in similar depth: Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Federal Bank,…

Motilal OswalBUYresult update
Firing on all cylinders; a new earnings cycle begins
31 Jul 2026 · Abhijit Tibrewal, Raghav Khemani, Nitin Aggarwal · 14 pp · open PDF ↗
Target
₹1,300
At report
₹1,054+23% printed
Vs our close
+33.5%

Motilal Oswal upgrades Bajaj Finance to BUY (from a prior lower rating) after an all-round strong Q1FY27 with broad-based AUM growth, improving asset quality and resilient margins signaling a structural earnings acceleration. The new target price of INR 1,300 (premised on 4.8x FY28E BVPS) implies 23% upside, with FY27/FY28 EPS estimates raised 4%/2%.

Thesis
  • PAT grew 28% YoY to ~INR60.8b (in line) and NII grew 23% YoY to ~INR125.7b, with PPoP up 19% YoY to INR101.4b, all in line with estimates
  • Credit costs declined ~10bp QoQ to ~1.54% (adjusted ~1.3% excluding a ~INR2.96b prudent macro overlay), with vintage performance across 3/6/9 MOB cohorts now at or better than pre-Covid levels
  • Total AUM grew 24% YoY/7.2% QoQ to INR5.47t, broad-based with rural and urban sales finance up 49%/38% YoY; new customer target raised to 18-20m for FY27 (from 15-17m)
  • Asset quality improved: GNPA/NNPA at 0.96%/0.4% (down ~5bp/2bp QoQ), PCR stable at ~60%
  • New growth engines gaining traction: digital platforms targeted to facilitate ~INR400-450b of business in FY27 (medium-term ambition ~INR1t); gold loan branches to reach ~2,800 by end-FY27 with AUM of INR290-310b
  • Investment thesis rests on three pillars: the credit cycle has turned, multiple growth engines are firing simultaneously, and the new earnings cycle supports both earnings upgrades and valuation
Q1FY27 highlights
  • PAT grew 28% YoY (27.6% per quarterly table) to ~INR60.8b, in line with MOFSL estimate of INR58.4b
  • NII grew 23% YoY to ~INR125.7b; Net Income grew to INR152.2b
  • PPoP at INR101.4b, up 19% YoY, in line with estimate of INR100.2b
  • Credit costs ~INR19.9b (~10% lower than MOFSLe); annualized credit cost 1.54% vs 1.65% QoQ and ~2% YoY
  • AUM grew 24% YoY/7.2% QoQ to INR5.47t; GNPA/NNPA at 0.96%/0.39% (down ~5bp/2bp QoQ)
  • NIM (calc.) rose ~3bp QoQ to 9.51%; CoB stable QoQ at 7.4%
Catalysts
  • Two new business lines targeted for launch by Jan-Feb'27
  • AI-led underwriting and voice/text bot disbursements scaling to ~INR110-120b in FY27, delivering >20% efficiency gains
  • Custom AI model for B2B business going live in 2QFY27, enabling access to ~0.5m incremental customers
  • Potential dilution of BHFL stake (currently ~86.7%) ahead of any fresh capital raise
Broker estimatesUnitFY26FY27EFY28E
Net IncomeINR b533654801
PPPINR b355438540
PATINR b193265327
EPSINR314353
BV/ShareINR188224268
NIM%9.79.69.4
RoA%3.84.24.2
RoE%18.120.721.4
P/Ex3424.820.1
P/BVx5.64.73.9

Valuation: 4.8x FY28E BVPS. Target price of INR 1,300 is premised on 4.8x FY28E BVPS, implying 23% upside from CMP of INR 1,054; MOFSL models PAT CAGR of ~30% over FY26-FY28E with RoA/RoE of 4.2%/21.4% in FY28E. FY27/FY28 EPS estimates raised by 4%/2% on higher AUM growth, higher non-interest income and lower credit cost assumptions (credit cost estimate lowered to 1.5%/1.45% for FY27E/FY28E); rating upgraded to BUY with TP raised to INR 1,300.

Extraction note: Header marks this report with 'Estimate change / TP change / Rating change / Upgrade to Buy' tags, confirming a rating upgrade in this note; prior rating not stated in the text. Quarterly performance table figures in INR b; income statement/balance sheet tables in INR m.

Figures are transcribed from each broker's PDF as printed (units as the broker states them) and are the broker's estimates, not Buoyant's. "Vs our close" recomputes the target against the latest reference close (29 Sept 2026).

SWOT

Strengths · Weaknesses · Opportunities · Threats

Draft
Strengths
  • Growth engine intact: AUM +24% YoY to Rs 5.47 lakh cr in Q1FY27 with FY27 guidance of 23-25% AUM and 23-24% PAT growth; new customer target raised to 18-20 mn.
  • Credit cycle turning: annualised credit cost fell to 1.54% in Q1FY27 (1.31% ex-provisions) from FY26 guidance of 1.85-1.95%; GNPA 0.96%, NNPA 0.39%; FY27 corridor 1.45-1.60%.
  • Self-inflicted stress is behind: unsecured MSME volumes were cut 25% in Nov-2025 (MSME AUM growth 2-6%) and captive 2W/3W (1.5% of AUM but 9% of losses) is phased out to <1% of AUM; gold loans (+112% to Rs 21,152 cr) and CV/tractor (+102%) replace them.
  • Best-in-class profitability: NIM 9.6% (Q4FY26), FY27 ROA guidance 4.3-4.7% and ROE 19-21% (annualised 20.4% in Q1FY27) versus Chola/Shriram in the 16-19% ROE range.
Weaknesses
  • vs Cholamandalam Investment & Finance: Chola (27x PE, 5.2x P/B, ROE 19.4%, Q1FY27 PAT +46%) is similarly priced but is a vehicle-finance-heavy lender with a smaller cross-sell franchise; Bajaj offers larger scale (AUM 5.5 lakh cr), higher ROA (4.3-4.7% guidance) and a diversified 20+ product engine at a comparable 32x/5.8x.
  • vs Shriram Finance: Shriram is cheaper (21.6x PE, 3.0x P/B, ROE 16.4%) but is a CV/used-vehicle lender with structurally higher credit costs and lower ROA; Bajaj's premium is paid for 9.6% NIM, sub-1% GNPA and 30%+ ten-year profit CAGR.
Opportunities
  • Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026): possible downward revision of FY27 credit-cost corridor (1.45-1.60%) if MSME normalises as guided (double-digit growth by H2FY27).
  • Further Bajaj Housing Finance stake sale to meet minimum public shareholding (holding 86.7% after Dec-2025 2% sale at Rs 95.31; ~Rs 1,588 cr raised) - special dividend precedent (Rs 0.60/share in FY26).
  • RBI rate-cut transmission lowering cost of funds (7.40% consolidated in Q1FY27) and any easing of unsecured-loan risk weights.
Threats
  • Valuation: 5.8x book and ~32x TTM leaves little room for a miss; Bernstein (Underperform, Rs 840), Macquarie (Sell, Rs 850) and Ambit (Sell, Rs 815) argue the multiple caps upside.
  • Renewed unsecured stress: MSME book still growing only +2% YoY and management wants 'another quarter' before revising credit-cost guidance; West-Asia conflict/geopolitical shocks could re-ignite retail delinquencies.
  • Succession: Rajeev Jain's term runs only to Mar-2028 after the abrupt Jul-2025 exit of MD Anup Saha; a second leadership reset in 18 months would hit the multiple.

Compiled from the approved one-pager (Why We Own What We Own, 8 Sep 2026): why-we-own → strengths, catalysts → opportunities, key risks → threats, peer caveats → weaknesses. Editorial mapping pending review. · author: compiled from the approved one-pager

Research reports · upload with a check step

0 approved · 0 pending · 0 rejected

Only approved reports are readable from the company page; the reviewer must differ from the uploader. Files are hashed (duplicates skipped) and held in the private store.

Internal evidence

Buoyant sources for this name

  • August 2026 top-30 disclosure — rank 5, NBFC, Core. Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf
  • One-pager, "Why We Own What We Own" — p40, 8 Sep 2026. Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026)
  • Sales playbook, Aug 2026 — holdings matrix (PMS/AIF I/AIF II, $31 Jul 2026). Buoyant_Capital_Sales_Playbook_Aug_2026_Full_Holdings.pdf

Original PDFs are in the supplied package on disk; private object storage is not configured, so source pages are referenced, not served.

Company filings

Investor documents (Tijori knowledge base)

annual reports
  • Annual report FY26
  • Annual report FY25
  • Annual report FY24
  • Annual report FY23
  • Annual report FY22
  • Annual report FY21
earnings releases
  • Results Feb26
  • Results Apr26
  • Results Jul26
  • Results Apr25
  • Results Jul25
  • Results Nov25
  • Results Mar24
  • Results Jun24
  • Results Sep24
  • Results Dec24
  • Results Mar23
  • Results Jun23
investor presentations
  • Presentation Feb26
  • Presentation Apr26
  • Presentation Jul26
  • Presentation Apr25
  • Presentation Jul25
  • Presentation Nov25
  • Presentation Dec25
  • Presentation Mar24
  • Presentation Jun24
  • Presentation Jul24
  • Presentation Sep24
  • Presentation Dec24
conference calls
  • Call Feb26
  • Call May26
  • Call Mar25
  • Call Jun25
  • Call Nov25
  • Call Mar24
  • Call Jun24
  • Call Sep24
  • Call Dec24
  • Call Jun23
  • Call Sep23
  • Call Dec23

Links open the issuer's or exchange's document; fetched only through the user's browser, never by the platform.

Ownership

Shareholding · Jun'26

Promoter54.67%
Indian Promoters54.67%
BAJAJ FINSERV LIMITED51.30%
MAHARASHTRA SCOOTERS LIMITED3.06%
SANJIVNAYAN BAJAJ0.08%
BAJAJ SEVASHRAM PRIVATE LIMITED0.05%
BAJAJ LIFE INSURANCE LIMITED0.04%
SANJALI BAJAJ0.02%
JAMNALAL SONS PRIVATE LIMITED0.02%
BARODA INDUSTRIES PRIVATE LIMITED0.02%
SIDDHANTNAYAN BAJAJ0.02%
SHEFALI BAJAJ0.01%
ARYAMAN KEJRIWAL0.00%
Public Shareholding45.33%