NSE: BAJFINANCE· NBFCCore · Aug 26Large cap

Bajaj Finance

Highest-ROE scaled lender

Last close
₹973.80
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−1.1% · −9.8%
price-only
Weight
3.5%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 5
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p40
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026): possible downward revision of FY27 credit-cost corridor (1.45-1.60%) if MSME normalises as guided (double-digit growth by H2FY27).
    C1
  • Further Bajaj Housing Finance stake sale to meet minimum public shareholding (holding 86.7% after Dec-2025 2% sale at Rs 95.31; ~Rs 1,588 cr raised) - special dividend precedent (Rs 0.60/share in FY26).
    C2
  • RBI rate-cut transmission lowering cost of funds (7.40% consolidated in Q1FY27) and any easing of unsecured-loan risk weights.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • Valuation: 5.8x book and ~32x TTM leaves little room for a miss; Bernstein (Underperform, Rs 840), Macquarie (Sell, Rs 850) and Ambit (Sell, Rs 815) argue the multiple caps upside.
    R1
  • Renewed unsecured stress: MSME book still growing only +2% YoY and management wants 'another quarter' before revising credit-cost guidance; West-Asia conflict/geopolitical shocks could re-ignite retail delinquencies.
    R2
  • Succession: Rajeev Jain's term runs only to Mar-2028 after the abrupt Jul-2025 exit of MD Anup Saha; a second leadership reset in 18 months would hit the multiple.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01Valuation: 5.8x book and ~32x TTM leaves little room for a miss; Bernstein (Underperform, Rs 840), Macquarie (Sell, Rs 850) and Ambit (Sell, Rs 815) argue the multiple caps upside.Research · post 2QFY27
02Renewed unsecured stress: MSME book still growing only +2% YoY and management wants 'another quarter' before revising credit-cost guidance; West-Asia conflict/geopolitical shocks could re-ignite retail delinquencies.Research · post 2QFY27
03Succession: Rajeev Jain's term runs only to Mar-2028 after the abrupt Jul-2025 exit of MD Anup Saha; a second leadership reset in 18 months would hit the multiple.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Q2FY27 results (late Oct-2026): possible downward revision of FY27 credit-cost corridor (1.45-1.60%) if MSME normalises as guided (double-digit growth by H2FY27).
  • 02Further Bajaj Housing Finance stake sale to meet minimum public shareholding (holding 86.7% after Dec-2025 2% sale at Rs 95.31; ~Rs 1,588 cr raised) - special dividend precedent (Rs 0.60/share in FY26).
  • 03RBI rate-cut transmission lowering cost of funds (7.40% consolidated in Q1FY27) and any easing of unsecured-loan risk weights.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 974 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.