NSE: GLENMARK· HealthCareValue · Aug 26Mid cap
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Turnaround: net cash, innovation royalties
- Last close
- ₹2,441.50
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- +5.0% · −2.9%
- price-only
- Weight
- 2.4%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 11
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p41
Map
What must happen → what could break it → what we watch
Catalysts · 3
- H2FY27: 2-3 US respiratory ANDA approvals expected (fluticasone 110 mcg, ipratropium bromide) plus gFlovent ramp from Monroe.C1
- CY2026: ISB 2301 IND filing (potential second out-licensing) and any AbbVie development milestone on ISB 2001 as Phase 1 dose-expansion data matures.C2
- Q2FY27 results (~early Nov-2026): first read on whether EBITDA margin is tracking the 21-22% FY27 guidance and on GLIPIQ semaglutide uptake in India.C3
Material risks · 3
- FY26 earnings quality: reported FY26 EBITDA of Rs 4,572 cr (27% OPM) includes ISB 2001 licensing income; clean run-rate EBITDA margin is ~20%, so headline TTM PE of 22x understates true valuation (~32x FY27E).R1
- Margin squeeze from geopolitics: management flagged API and logistics cost inflation hurting margins for 'at least 2 quarters'; Q1 gross and EBITDA margins contracted 122/119 bp ex licensing income.R2
- US regulatory/launch risk: 53 pending ANDAs and the gFlovent/gFlonase ramp depend on Monroe and Indian plants staying clean; ISB 2001 milestones are binary and none have triggered yet.R3
Live monitors
- Valuation vs approved targetNo target stated
- Latest reported quarterQ Jun-26
- Results-driven thresholdsAwaiting approved numbers
Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.
Risks as a decision framework
Material risks
| # | Risk (approved text) | Owner · next review |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | FY26 earnings quality: reported FY26 EBITDA of Rs 4,572 cr (27% OPM) includes ISB 2001 licensing income; clean run-rate EBITDA margin is ~20%, so headline TTM PE of 22x understates true valuation (~32x FY27E). | Research · post 2QFY27 |
| 02 | Margin squeeze from geopolitics: management flagged API and logistics cost inflation hurting margins for 'at least 2 quarters'; Q1 gross and EBITDA margins contracted 122/119 bp ex licensing income. | Research · post 2QFY27 |
| 03 | US regulatory/launch risk: 53 pending ANDAs and the gFlovent/gFlonase ramp depend on Monroe and Indian plants staying clean; ISB 2001 milestones are binary and none have triggered yet. | Research · post 2QFY27 |
Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.
Catalysts
Observable events
- 01H2FY27: 2-3 US respiratory ANDA approvals expected (fluticasone 110 mcg, ipratropium bromide) plus gFlovent ramp from Monroe.
- 02CY2026: ISB 2301 IND filing (potential second out-licensing) and any AbbVie development milestone on ISB 2001 as Phase 1 dose-expansion data matures.
- 03Q2FY27 results (~early Nov-2026): first read on whether EBITDA margin is tracking the 21-22% FY27 guidance and on GLIPIQ semaglutide uptake in India.
Monitors
Live monitors from available data
- ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 2,442 vs base target not stated.
- DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
- DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.