Broadest lever on the volume recovery
| Peer | Status | P/E | ROE | Mkt cap | Why we do not hold it (approved text) | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindustan Unilever | Held | 30.40 | 30.86% | 4.55 L Cr | Broadest lever on the volume recovery | |
| Nestle India | Not held | n/a | n/a | n/a | Nestle trades at 72.7x trailing PE (mcap Rs 2.70 lakh cr) vs HUL 41.8x; Nestle's 74% ROE is superior but HUL offers 2.1% dividend yield vs 0.9% and a broader, less milk-price-exposed portfolio. | Screener · Tijori |
| ITC | Not held | n/a | n/a | n/a | ITC is cheaper (16.7x PE, 5.5% yield) but Jun-26 quarter sales fell 10.9% YoY and 3-yr sales CAGR is 4%; tobacco regulatory overhang and hotels demerger make it a value/yield play rather than a volume-growth compounder. | Screener · Tijori |
| Dabur | Not held | n/a | n/a | n/a | Dabur is cheaper at 33.7x but 3-yr sales/profit CAGR is only 5%/4% with ROE of 17% vs HUL's ~21-24% (3-yr avg) and Q1FY27 double-digit USG. | Screener · Tijori |
Peer numbers are shown only where the peer is in the security master (fundamentals pulled); "n/a" otherwise — a peer is not added to the data pull without a research request. Reasons are quoted from the one-pager (8 Sep 2026).
Nestlé India is a superb business at 60x+ with the least GST benefit and the slowest volume growth of the group; ITC is cigarettes-led (we specifically exclude cigarettes from the volume thesis) and now a hotels demerger story; Dabur and Godrej Consumer have weaker execution and portfolio issues (honey/chyawanprash seasonality; GCPL's African drag). Marico is a copra-cost story, not a volume story. Tata Consumer pays 60x for tea. In discretionary, V-Mart and ABFRL lack Trent's unit economics and balance sheet, and Shoppers Stop is the wrong price point for a transfer-led recovery.
All sectors we avoid or underweight →HUL (3.3%, Core) is the broadest single lever on the volume recovery — 60% of its portfolio saw GST cuts, a new CEO is resetting the portfolio and the stock has de-rated to ~42x FY27E. Trent (3.1%, Core) is our discretionary expression: Zudio's 982 stores (from ~240 four years ago) are 80%+ in tier-2/3 towns where the transfers land, and the whole assortment sits under the ₹2,500 GST threshold. Britannia (2.0%, Core) is the cleanest GST beneficiary (biscuits 18% → 5%) with a 50%+ ROE and a multiple at the low end of its own decade. Varun Beverages (1.0%, Core) is the rural-distribution and Africa-growth story at 40x versus 55–70x in 2023–24.
| Beauty & Personal Care - Market Share | 37 % | as of Mar 18 |
| Dishwashing Detergents Market Share | 55 % | as of Mar 18 |
| Shampoo - Market Share | 47 % | as of Mar 18 |
| Skin Care Segment Market Share | 54 % | as of Mar 18 |
| Tea Segment Market Share | 12 % | as of Mar 18 |
| Toothpaste - Market Share | 17 % | as of Mar 18 |