07 /India top-down · 3 of 3 · chapter 15 · Manufacturing

Oil & gas: upstream, refining, marketing & city gas.

GVA FY26
₹7 lakh cr
2.22% of national GVA
FY35E base case
₹12.7 lakh cr
1.62% of GVA
Growth to FY35
6.6% to FY30
7% FY30–35
Listed companies
101
₹32.94 L cr market cap
History and projection

Gross value added

lighter bars = Atlas projections; ticks = bull / bear cases
In one paragraph

What this industry is

Oil and gas is the largest revenue pool in India's listed market but only a mid-sized value-added pool: listed companies report ₹38.7 lakh crore of revenue (11% of GDP) yet the industry's estimated GVA is ₹7.0 lakh crore (2.2% of national GVA), because crude oil is mostly a pass-through cost - a refiner adds a gross refining margin of just US$6-12 to an $80-107 barrel. India imports 88.5% of the crude it refines (US$198 bn of crude, products and LNG in FY26) and exports US$70.9 bn of refined products, making it both the largest merchandise import line and the second-largest export line; it is now the world's fourth-largest refiner and largest net diesel exporter to Europe. The chapter spans three distinct sub-chains with different growth paths: upstream (crude and gas production, ₹1.5 LC GVA), refining/marketing/petrochemicals (₹5.0 LC, the bulk of the envelope) and gas distribution (₹0.5 LC, the fastest-growing segment on LNG imports and city-gas expansion). Unusually for Part V, every major link of the chain is listed (Reliance, ONGC, IOC, BPCL, HPCL, GAIL, Oil India, Petronet, city-gas players), and the sector is over-represented in the equity market (ERR 1.5-2.5x) relative to its GVA weight, a legacy of PSU listings and the Jamnagar refinery complex.

Estimated GVA
7.0 ₹ lakh crore · FY26
Listed revenue
38.7 ₹ lakh crore · FY26
Listed PAT
2.36 ₹ lakh crore · FY26
Crude, products & LNG imports
198 US$ bn · FY26
Product exports
70.9 US$ bn · FY26
Market cap
26.5 ₹ lakh crore · Sep-2026
Crude import dependence
88.5 % · FY26
Refining capacity
257 mtpa · FY26

Source: India: The Economic & Equity Market Atlas, September 2026, pages 97–103; base year 2022-23. Note: FY05/FY10 on the 2004-05 base, FY15/FY20 on the 2011-12 base, FY26 on the 2022-23 base (levels not spliced across the FY12/FY23 breaks); FY30E/FY35E are base-case model estimates. Table 15.1's 'Nomina