Steel.

Steel is India's second-largest crude-steel industry in the world (155 mt in FY26) and the material backbone of the investment cycle, with an estimated FY26 GVA of ₹3.4 lakh crore (1.1% of national GVA; 1.4% including ₹0.9 lakh crore of iron-ore mining). Output has grown 3.6x over two decades (FY05-FY26, 6.3% CAGR) through three waves — a 2004-2012 private-sector build-out, a 2013-2020 stall driven by Chinese overcapacity and twin-balance-sheet insolvencies, and a post-2020 boom on public infrastructure capex. The industry is moderately concentrated (six producers make ~58% of crude steel) but value-add is dominated by a volatile operating surplus tied to the spread between steel prices and imported coking coal (85% import-dependent). Base-case GVA is projected to reach ₹5.2 lakh crore by FY30 and ₹9.0 lakh crore by FY35 (11.4% nominal CAGR), driven by construction/infrastructure demand tracking GFCF, though growth is expected to run slightly below the broader manufacturing envelope.

Estimated steel-making GVA

3.4 ₹ LC · FY26

Iron-ore mining GVA

0.9 ₹ LC · FY26

Crude steel production / finished steel consumption

155 / 158 mt · FY26

Installed capacity

~200 mt · FY26

Revenue pool (steel ~₹9.5 LC + iron ore ~₹1.4 LC)

~11 ₹ LC · FY26

Listed Iron & Steel PAT

0.63 ₹ LC (3.3% of listed profit) · FY26

Listed market cap (Iron & Steel ₹12.8 LC + NMDC)

~13.5 ₹ LC (2.8% of market) · FY26

Per-capita steel consumption

111 kg · FY26