IT services & global capability centres.

IT services and global capability centres (GCCs) are India's largest exportable service industry, producing an estimated ₹14.2 lakh crore of domestic value added in FY26 (4.5% of national GVA) from about 5.0 million direct employees and US$209 bn of software exports on a BoP basis. Value added compounded at over 20% a year in rupees between FY05 and FY15 as export revenue and a weakening rupee both drove growth, but since FY15 growth has roughly halved to ~10% as the base has matured, incremental work has shifted from Indian vendors to lower-value-add captive GCCs, and clients have grown cautious on discretionary spend pending AI-based delivery. The central question the chapter poses is whether an industry whose economics are built on billing human hours can keep compounding as generative AI directly reduces the hours needed per unit of work; FY26 dollar revenue growth at the top five vendors slowed to just 2-3%, the weakest non-pandemic year on record. The base case sees the industry's GVA share of national GVA drift from 4.5% (FY26) to 4.0% (FY30) and 3.5% (FY35), with AI removing 20-30% of effort in maintenance, testing and BPM over the decade while firms shift headcount toward higher-value platform, data and AI-operations work.

Industry revenue (NASSCOM tech industry)

~280 (incl. domestic ~55) US$ bn · FY26

Software exports (BoP basis)

209 US$ bn · FY26

Direct employment

~5.0 (of 5.8mn tech workforce) million · FY26

GCC direct employment

~2.0 (grade B); Table 52.5 gives 1.95 million · FY26

GCC centres and revenue

~1,800 centres; ~US$65 bn revenue count/US$ bn · FY26

Listed IT companies PAT

1.47 (7.7% of listed profit) ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Listed IT companies market cap

31.5 (6.5% of listed mcap) ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Listed sector PE vs 10-year average

21.4x vs 10y 24.7x x · FY26