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Release
August 2026 · rev 1
Opportunities PMS · Published
As at 31 Aug 2026 · IST₹ · ₹ cr · BSE 500 TRI
Present
Internal working platform. Published figures are extracted from the August 2026 source package and reviewed; reference prices and fundamentals are unlicensed working data, not for redistribution. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Company Atlas/Banking/HDFC Bank
NSE: HDFCBANK· BankingTurnaround · Aug 26Large cap

HDFC Bank

New, early: highest expected return in our model

Last close
₹722.70
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
+0.5% · +0.3%
price-only
Weight
1.8%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 22
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p31
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf · p1Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026) · p31Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
OverviewBusiness & segmentsChartsFinancialsValuationThesisRisks & catalystsCompetitorsResearch & documents
What the company does

HDFC Bank · Banks - Regional

HDFC Bank together with its subsidiaries is engaged in providing a range of banking and financial services, including retail banking, wholesale banking, treasury operations, insurance, asset management, stock broking and other financial services business. The Bank has overseas branch operations in Bahrain, Hong Kong, Dubai, Singapore and an Offshore Banking Unit at International Financial Service Centre (IFSC), GIFT City, India. The bank has three key business segments: Wholesale Banking, Treasury and Retail Banking.

Full profile (Yahoo)

HDFC Bank Limited provides banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses in India, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai. The company operates through Treasury, Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Other Banking Business, Insurance Business, and Other segments. It offers savings, salary, current, rural, public provident fund, pension, and demat accounts; fixed and recurring deposits; and safe deposit lockers, as well as offshore accounts and deposits, and overdrafts against fixed deposits. The company also provides personal, home, car and pre owned car, marriage, two-wheeler, business, doctor, educational, gold, consumer, and rural loans; loans against properties, securities, mutual funds, and car; loans for professionals; government sponsored programs; and loans on credit card, as well as working capital, term loans, supply chain management, project finance, export finance, commercial vehicle / equipment finance, tractor finance, infrastructure, and agriculture finance. In addition, it offers credit, debit, prepaid, forex, and kisan gold cards; payment and collection, export, import, remittance, bank guarantee, letter of credit, trade, hedging, and merchant and cash management services; and insurance and investment products. Further, the company provides short term finance, bill discounting, structured finance, export credit, loan repayment, custodial, and documents collection services; online, mobile, and phone banking services; unified payment interface, immediate payment, national electronic funds transfer, and real time gross settlement services; channel financing, vendor financing, money market, derivatives, employee trusts, cash surplus corporates, tax payment, and bankers to rights/public issue services; and financial solutions for supply chain partners and agricultural customers. It operates branches and automated teller machines in various cities/towns. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

Sector (Yahoo)
Financial Services
Industry (Yahoo)
Banks - Regional
Employees
2,12,958
Website
hdfc.bank.in

Key people: Mr. Sashidhar Jagdishan (MD, CEO & Director) · Mr. Kaizad Maneck Bharucha (Deputy MD & Director) · Mr. Srinivasan Vaidyanathan (Chief Financial Officer) · Mr. Gourab Roy (Group Head of Operations, ATM & Administration) · Mr. Rakesh Kumar Singh (Group Head of Private Banking, International Banking, Financial Institutions & BaaS) · Mr. Ajit Subhas Shetty (Investor Relations Officer)

Who are the competitors of HDFC Bank?

HDFC Bank major competitors are ICICI Bank, State Bank Of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Federal Bank, AU Small Fin. Bank. Market Cap of HDFC Bank is ₹11,51,628 Crs. While the median market cap of its peers are ₹4,01,341 Crs.

Is HDFC Bank financially stable compared to its competitors?

HDFC Bank seems to be financially stable compared to its competitors.The probability of it going bankrupt or facing a financial crunch seem to be lower than its immediate competitors.

Snapshot and what to watch · Tijori · 12 Sep 2026
  • HDFC Bank is a deposit-funded lender. It lends to retail, SME and corporate borrowers.
  • Net interest income is 72% of revenue. SME, business banking and corporate loans each grew 18-22% in Q1FY27. Subsidiaries add to group profit.
  • About 80% of average deposits are retail. Per management, retail branches drive deposits and balance loan growth.
  • The loan mix is shifting toward SME and wholesale. Retail was 52% of AUM in Q1FY27, down from 55%.
  • Deposits grew 14.7% in Q1FY27. Advances grew 15.4%. Current and savings deposits are 32% of deposits.
  • HDFC Bank is normalising its balance sheet during a CEO change. Management guides a deposit-led loan-to-deposit ratio below 90% in FY27.
  • Net interest margin is the pressure point at 3.26% in Q1FY27.

Yahoo profile 23 Sept 2026 · Tijori 23 Sept 2026

Segments

Revenue mix and market share

Segment Break-Up
  • Retail banking39.4%
  • Wholesale banking25.3%
  • Insurance Business18.7%
  • Treasury9.4%
  • Others7.3%
Loan Break-Up - Retail banking
  • Mortgages55.2%
  • Personal loan13.6%
  • Auto9.9%
  • Agri7.6%
  • Credit cards7.1%
  • Others4.3%
  • Gold1.6%
  • Two wheelers0.7%
Loan Break-Up - Priority
  • Services34.2%
  • Advances to industries eligible28.6%
  • Agriculture and allied activities18.9%
  • Personal loans18.2%
Loan Break-Up - Non-Priority
  • Personal loans51.6%
  • Services27.2%
  • Industry19.6%
  • Agriculture and allied activities1.5%
Loan Break-Up
  • Personal loans38.6%
  • Services30.0%
  • Advances to industries eligible23.1%
  • Agriculture and allied activities8.3%
Location Wise Break-Up
  • India99.0%
  • Rest of the World1.0%
Operating Profit Break-Up
  • Wholesale Banking37.3%
  • Retail Banking36.5%
  • Others11.3%
  • Treasury8.7%
  • Insurance Business6.3%
Borrowings Break-Up
  • Bonds and Debentures (excluding subordinated debt)40.2%
  • Borrowings outside India22.0%
  • Financial Institutions20.2%
  • Banks10.6%
  • Upper and lower Tier II capital and innovative perpetual debts5.4%
  • Reserve Bank of India1.7%
Asset Break-Up
  • India98.1%
  • Others1.9%
Priority vs Non-Priority Sector
  • Non-Priority61.1%
  • Priority38.9%

Latest reported mix as compiled by Tijori from company disclosures; percentages of revenue.

Operating metrics

Company-reported KPIs (Tijori) · latest quarter

As the company reports them. They can differ from the ratio table on the Financials tab, which uses Tijori's own definitions (for example NIM on average total assets rather than on interest-earning assets); the Cross-check panel there lines both up.

Cost To Income Ratio39.2 % 2026-06
CASA Ratio32.3 % 2026-06
Credit Deposit Ratio96.53 % 2026-06
Fresh Slippages - Quarterly8,000 Crs 2026-06
Capital to Risks Assets Ratio (CRAR)19.6 % 2026-06
Net Interest Margin3.26 % 2026-06
Gross NPA1.17 % 2026-06
Monthly Gross Direct Premium Income (GDPI)1,431.38 Crs 2026-07
Yield On Total Investments - General Insurance7.6 % 2026-06
Business model

How the company earns

India's largest private bank (₹30 lakh crore of loans, 9,700 branches, 100 million+ customers) formed by the 2023 merger with HDFC Ltd, which brought a ₹7 lakh crore mortgage book and a funding gap the bank has spent three years closing. ROA 1.7–1.8%, net NPA 0.4%, CET1 17.4%, PBT-ex-treasury growing 21%; subsidiaries (HDB Financial, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, HDFC Ergo, HDFC Securities) are worth ~₹110 a share.

Competitive position · why this and not peers
ICICI BankWe own both. ICICI's ROA (2.2%) and CASA (39%) are better today; HDFC Bank's are converging and the price gap (1.6x vs 2.5x core book) is wider than the quality gap.
Kotak MahindraKotak at 2.0x core book earns a 12% ROE; HDFC Bank at 1.6x earns 14% rising to 16%. There is no version of the arithmetic in which Kotak is the better buy.
SBIWe own both. SBI is cheaper (1.25x) but a public-sector bank with a lower ROA ceiling (1.1%); HDFC Bank's 1.8% ROA justifies the premium.
Segment economics

Reported revenue mix

Segment Break-Up

share of revenue, %
  • Retail banking
    39.4%
  • Wholesale banking
    25.3%
  • Insurance Business
    18.6%
  • Treasury
    9.4%
  • Others
    7.3%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Loan Break-Up - Retail banking

share of revenue, %
  • Mortgages
    55.2%
  • Personal loan
    13.6%
  • Auto
    9.9%
  • Agri
    7.6%
  • Credit cards
    7.1%
  • Others
    4.3%
  • Gold
    1.6%
  • Two wheelers
    0.7%
  • CVCE
    0.0%
  • Business Banking
    0.0%
  • Loans Against Security
    0.0%
  • Home loans
    0.0%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Loan Break-Up - Priority

share of revenue, %
  • Services
    34.2%
  • Advances to industries eligible
    28.6%
  • Agriculture and allied activities
    18.9%
  • Personal loans
    18.2%
  • Others
    0.0%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Loan Break-Up - Non-Priority

share of revenue, %
  • Personal loans
    51.6%
  • Services
    27.2%
  • Industry
    19.6%
  • Agriculture and allied activities
    1.5%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Loan Break-Up

share of revenue, %
  • Personal loans
    38.6%
  • Services
    30.0%
  • Advances to industries eligible
    23.1%
  • Agriculture and allied activities
    8.3%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Location Wise Break-Up

share of revenue, %
  • India
    99.0%
  • Rest of the World
    1.0%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Operating Profit Break-Up

share of revenue, %
  • Wholesale Banking
    37.3%
  • Retail Banking
    36.5%
  • Others
    11.3%
  • Treasury
    8.7%
  • Insurance Business
    6.3%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Borrowings Break-Up

share of revenue, %
  • Bonds and Debentures (excluding subordinated debt)
    40.2%
  • Borrowings outside India
    22.0%
  • Financial Institutions
    20.2%
  • Banks
    10.6%
  • Upper and lower Tier II capital and innovative perpetual debts
    5.4%
  • Reserve Bank of India
    1.7%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Asset Break-Up

share of revenue, %
  • India
    98.1%
  • Others
    1.9%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Priority vs Non-Priority Sector

share of revenue, %
  • Non-Priority
    61.1%
  • Priority
    38.9%

Share of revenue as disclosed in filings (Tijori normalisation). Segment profit measure: not disclosed in this source — segment EBIT/EBITDA/PBT are not shown rather than estimated. Eliminations and unallocated costs not available here.

Industry cycle

Banking chapter

Banking — 21.1%: the largest exposure, chosen bank by bank

Banks are the cheapest way to own an economy growing 8–9% in nominal terms, and today they are cheap for a reason that has nothing to do with their economics. Every one of the four cycles that drive bank earnings is turning in their favour: deposits are growing 15.4% (the fastest in a decade) so the funding squeeze that capped growth in FY25–26 is easing; system credit is growing 18.3% and corporate borrowing is migrating from a shrinking bond market (issuance −18%) back onto bank balance sheets; margins troughed in the June 2026 quarter after 125 bp of repo cuts and are now rising as deposits reprice; and asset quality is the best in twenty years (large private-bank net NPAs 0.3–0.5%, SBI 0.38%). Yet the Bank Nifty trades below its own long-run average. The reason is mechanical: foreign investors have sold ₹1.8 lakh crore of Indian equity in FY26 and six of their ten largest holdings are banks. They can only sell what they own. Our own work — a capital-adjusted residual-income model of the four large private banks plus SBI, built from FY17 — says the four large private banks earn 14.5–17.5% on normalised capital against a 12.25–13% cost of equity and will compound book at 12–16% a year. Over ten-year horizons EPS growth and share-price growth converge; the arithmetic is on our side even if the timing of the narrative turn is not. The important sales point is that our alpha in financials has come from selection, not the index: SBI in 2017 when retail delinquencies were better than perceived, ICICI as a top pick from 2018, Axis through its credit-cost trough (up 40–50% for us). Roughly 40% of the bank index is HDFC Bank and Kotak and we deliberately did not hug it at 4–5x book.

Datapoints the team can quote
  • System deposit growth 15.4% YoY in Aug-2026, highest since Dec-2016; non-food credit +18.3% (Jun-26); CD ratio peaked at 82.5% — RBI / Business Standard / Buoyant macro sheet
  • Corporate bond issuance −18%: wholesale borrowing is migrating back to bank balance sheets; merger-adjusted loan growth at a three-year high — Buoyant Perspectives, Aug-2026
  • FPI equity outflow ₹1.8 lakh cr in FY26 vs DII inflow ₹8.5 lakh cr; six of the ten largest FPI holdings are banks — Buoyant macro sheet
  • Large private banks: ROA 1.5–2.2%, NNPA 0.3–0.5%, CET1 14–17%; SBI ROA 1.1%, NNPA 0.38%, CET1 12.9% (1QFY27) — Company filings, Buoyant model
  • Bank Nifty below its long-run average P/B in Aug-2026; our fair P/B (RIM): HDFC Bank 1.9x, ICICI 2.2x, Axis 1.7x, SBI 1.5x, Kotak 1.6x — Buoyant private-banks initiation, Sep-2026
What we deliberately do not own

Kotak Mahindra Bank is the obvious omission. Our model rates it REDUCE: a 12% ROE bank at 2.0x core book, priced for a 17% ROE it does not earn, with CASA sliding toward 40% and a CEO succession still ahead. The argument the house has used for years — a 16–17% ROE bank cannot compound above that without dilution, so 4–5x book is unsustainable — applies with more force to a 12% one. IndusInd is a governance rebuild we do not need to underwrite; Federal Bank and AU Small Finance are good franchises but neither has IDFC First's deposit engine or its operating-leverage runway at a comparable price. Among public-sector banks, Bank of Baroda and Canara are cheaper on paper but have weaker CASA, thinner capital and none of SBI's subsidiary optionality; SBI's premium (1.25x vs 0.9–1.0x) is the price of a franchise that survived the AQR and emerged with the best retail book in the system.

Market position

Market share (where tracked)

Auto Insurance - Market Share4.77 %as of May 23
Bank Advances - Market Share13.85 %as of Jun 26
Bank Deposits - Market Share11.95 %as of Jun 26
Credit Card Transactions - Market Share28.93 %as of Jul 26
Debit Card Transactions - Market Share10.49 %as of Jul 26
Gram Panchayat Market Share10 %as of Mar 21
Gross Direct Premium Income - Market Share4.66 %as of Jul 26
Health Insurance - Market Share4.73 %as of May 23
Sector datapoints

From the one-pager

  • Deposit growth 15.4% system-wide is the single most important macro variable for HDFC Bank (LDR 96%)
  • Private banks' ROE 14–16% vs 12.5–13% cost of equity; HDFC Bank at 1.6x core book is priced below the value of that compounding
  • FPI selling has hit HDFC Bank hardest (largest foreign holding); the reversal is the trade