NSE: HDFCBANK· BankingTurnaround · Aug 26Large cap
HDFC Bank
New, early: highest expected return in our model
- Last close
- ₹722.70
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- +0.5% · +0.3%
- price-only
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 22
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p31
Where the price sits
52-week range, house target and street targets
52w low ₹68752w high ₹1,010
- Reference close₹723
- House target (internal)₹918
- ICICI Securities · BUY₹920
- Antique Stock Broking Limited · BUY₹1,015
Range from reference closes; street targets from the PDFs on file (Research & documents). Internal target is never shown to prospects.
Investment case and valuation
Approved model, 8 Sep 2026 review
BUYbase TP ₹918 (+29%)
₹711
Price, 7-Sep-26
BUY
Our rating · base TP ₹918 (+29%)
1.58x
Core P/B (ex-subs) vs fair 1.87x
13.4x / 11.4x
FY27E / FY28E P/E (our EPS)
13.7%
FY27E ROE → 16.4% FY31E
15.5%
ROE the price already discounts
Bank valuations use the capital-adjusted residual-income framework from the September 2026 initiation (fair core P/B, ROE discounted by the price). Full assumptions are on the model table on the Financials tab.
- Model date
- 8 Sep 2026 (prices 7–8 Sep 2026)
- Horizon
- 12 months (bank pages: Sep-2027 roll-forward)
- Audience
- Internal — the book's guardrail: do not quote a target to a client; quote the thesis and the risk
- Reviewer · version
- Investment Committee framework · v1 (book)
Current vs history
Trailing multiples, FY-end
| Ratio | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.2x | 26.5x | 28.3x | 17.3x | 25.9x | 21.4x | 19.5x | 17.2x | 19.8x | 14.8x |
| Price to Book Value | 4.0x | 4.5x | 4.1x | 2.7x | 3.9x | 3.3x | 3.1x | 2.4x | 2.7x | 1.9x |
Tijori FY-end multiples on reported earnings/book; compatible definitions across years, but not the same basis as Buoyant's forward P/E on internal EPS.
Illustrative scenario · session only
Two-driver sensitivity: forward EPS × forward P/E
Implied value · upside vs ₹723
₹948 +31.2%
Approved base: ₹948 = 62.4 × 15.2x · book: base TP ₹918 (+29%)
| EPS \ P/E | 12.2x | 13.7x | 15.2x | 16.7x | 18.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.9 | ₹607 −16% | ₹683 −6% | ₹759 +5% | ₹835 +15% | ₹911 +26% |
| 56.2 | ₹683 −6% | ₹768 +6% | ₹854 +18% | ₹939 +30% | ₹1,024 +42% |
| 62.4 | ₹759 +5% | ₹854 +18% | ₹948 +31% | ₹1,043 +44% | ₹1,138 +57% |
| 68.6 | ₹835 +15% | ₹939 +30% | ₹1,043 +44% | ₹1,148 +59% | ₹1,252 +73% |
| 74.9 | ₹911 +26% | ₹1,024 +42% | ₹1,138 +57% | ₹1,252 +73% | ₹1,366 +89% |
Drafts are held in this session only; no persistence adapter is configured, so nothing reaches the approved model (see Data & Publishing).