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Release
August 2026 · rev 1
Opportunities PMS · Published
As at 31 Aug 2026 · IST₹ · ₹ cr · BSE 500 TRI
Present
Internal working platform. Published figures are extracted from the August 2026 source package and reviewed; reference prices and fundamentals are unlicensed working data, not for redistribution. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Company Atlas/Banking/HDFC Bank
NSE: HDFCBANK· BankingTurnaround · Aug 26Large cap

HDFC Bank

New, early: highest expected return in our model

Last close
₹722.70
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
+0.5% · +0.3%
price-only
Weight
1.8%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 22
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p31
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf · p1Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026) · p31Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
OverviewBusiness & segmentsChartsFinancialsValuationThesisRisks & catalystsCompetitorsResearch & documents
Analysis · lender rules · FY21–FY26

What the numbers say

data to 30 Jun 2026
Growth
4.3
Profitability
3.2
Balance sheet
3.9
Cash conversion
n/a
Valuation
3.5
Total Income4,95,463 cr FY26
Net Profit76,026 cr FY26
NIM · Tijori basis3.5% FY26
ROA1.7% FY26
Total income CAGR 3y
34.3%
PPOP CAGR 3y
19.6%
Net profit CAGR 3y
18.2%
NIM · Tijori basis
3.51%
FY26 · NII ÷ avg total assets; the bank's reported NIM (on interest-earning assets) is under Operating metrics
Gross NPA
1.15%
FY26
CASA
34.1%
FY26
ROA
1.70%
FY26 · net profit ÷ total assets
ROE
14.4%
FY26 · net profit ÷ year-end equity
Credit / deposit
98%
FY26
P/B
1.94x
FY26 year-end price ÷ book
  • Growth. Net profit compounded 18.2% a year over FY23–FY26 (total income 34.3%, pre-provision profit 19.6%). · Tijori P&L, annual
  • Credit cost. Provisions absorbed 38% of pre-provision profit in FY26. · Tijori P&L
  • Asset quality. Gross NPA 1.15% in FY26, down from 1.24% two years earlier. · Tijori ratios sheet
  • Returns. ROE 14.4% and ROA 1.70% in FY26, on a 3.51% net interest margin. · Tijori ratios sheet
  • Valuation. Trades at 1.94x book for a 14.4% ROE (14.8x earnings). · Tijori valuation ratios
  • Latest quarter. Q Jun-26: total income 0.0% YoY, net profit 18.4% YoY. · Tijori quarterly
Forensic flags · Tijori
Accounting & Shareholding
  • Pledge: Promoters have not pledged a significant portion of their holding
  • Retail Holding: Retail has been buying the stock which is usually a sign of exuberance
  • Contingent Liabilities: Company has significant contigent liabilities which can be risky
  • Other Income: Other income component is making ratios of the company look optically better
  • Promoter Holding: Promoter has not sold any shares in the last 90 days
Price & Performance
  • Cost Of Borrowing: Cost of borrowing of the company seems to be trending down
  • Cost to Income Ratio: Operational cost of company is trending down
  • Share price: Share price has increased over last 10 years due to earnings
  • Current vs Historic Valuation: Company is trading at a discount to 3yr historic valuations
  • Net Interest Margin: Net interest margin of the company is trending down
  • Net NPA: Npa's of the company is currently under control
  • ROE: Roe has decreased vs 10 year trend
  • Sales Growth: Sales of the company has grown at a good pace
  • Margin Stability: Margins of the company are volatile
  • Balance Sheet - Strength: Latest bs is strong. the strength was visible historically as well.

Rules over the stated numbers only — CAGRs need positive start and end values, margins use the company's own OPM line, cash conversion is cumulative operating cash flow over cumulative profit for the last three fiscal years. Scores are 0–5 rule outputs, not a recommendation. Source: Tijori Finance normalised statements; Buoyant's own estimates are shown separately below and never blended in.

Cross-check

Same metric, every source · HDFC Bank

Where the app shows the same metric in more than one place, this table lists each figure with its period and definition. No two sources disagree on the same period and definition; every difference below is a period or definition difference.

MetricSourcePeriodDefinitionValueVerdict
Net interest marginTijori ratio tableFY26NII ÷ average total assets (Tijori)3.51%Different basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori screenerFY26NII ÷ average total assets (Tijori)3.51%
Tijori quarterly tableQ Jun-26as reported by the bank (NII ÷ interest-earning assets)3.26%
Tijori operating metricsQ 2026-06as reported by the bank (NII ÷ interest-earning assets)3.26%
Return on assetsTijori ratio tableFY26net profit ÷ total assets, year-end (Tijori)1.70%Different basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
House model (one-pager)FY26net profit ÷ average assets, standalone1.80%
Gross NPATijori ratio tableFY26as reported1.15%Different basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori quarterly tableQ Jun-26as reported1.17%
CASA ratioTijori ratio tableFY26CASA ÷ deposits (Tijori)34.07%Different basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori screenerFY26CASA ÷ deposits (Tijori)34.07%
Tijori quarterly tableQ Jun-26as reported (bank's own CASA definition)32.30%
Return on equityTijori ratio tableFY26net profit ÷ year-end equity (Tijori)14.41%Different basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori screenerTTMtrailing 12 months (Tijori)14.41%
House model (one-pager)FY26net profit ÷ average equity, standalone14.00%
Net profitTijori P&LFY26consolidated, annual₹76,026 crDifferent basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori P&LTTM Jun-26trailing 12 months₹82,512 cr
Tijori screenerTTMtrailing 12 months₹82,511 cr
House model (one-pager)FY26standalone, annual₹74,671 cr
Tijori quarterly tableQ Jun-26single quarter₹19,245 cr
EPSTijori ratio tableFY26consolidated, annual₹49.39Different basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
House model (one-pager)FY26standalone, annual₹48.5
P/ETijori screenerTTM at 2026-09-28price ÷ trailing EPS14.40xDifferent basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori ratio tableFY26 year-endyear-end price ÷ that year's EPS14.82x
House model (one-pager)FY27EFY27E / FY28E P/E (our EPS)13.40x
P/BTijori screenerat 2026-09-28price ÷ book value per share1.88xDifferent basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori ratio tableFY26 year-endyear-end price ÷ book value1.94x
Market capBSE master2026-09-28BSE full market cap₹11,38,523 crDifferent basis
Figures differ because they measure different periods or definitions; each is labelled.
Tijori screenerlatest Tijori refreshprice × shares₹11,39,294 cr
House one-pager31-Jul-26₹ lakh crore as printed₹11,61,000 cr

Tolerance for a conflict: 1.5% on the same period and definition (3% for market cap, which moves with the price date). Tijori's ratio table uses its own definitions; the quarterly table and operating metrics carry the company's reported figures; the house model is standalone and dated.

Trend

Total income and net profit, FY

₹ crore. Actuals only; the last column is a TTM where labelled. Estimates are shown separately below with an "E" and never blended into this series.

Buoyant estimates

Model table from the research book

Buoyant estimates
₹ crore / %FY24FY25FY26FY27EFY28E
Net interest income (₹ cr)108,533122,670128,686139,024162,516
Pre-provision profit (₹ cr)94,388100,102118,559120,735143,558
Net profit (₹ cr)60,81267,34774,67181,54496,054
EPS (₹)40.044.048.553.062.4
Book value / share (₹)290328366407455
ROA (%)2.001.791.801.761.84
ROE (%)16.914.314.013.714.5
Gross NPA (%)1.241.331.15n.a.n.a.
Credit cost (%)1.150.450.840.450.50
CET1 (%)16.317.217.517.317.0

Standalone. FY27E–FY28E Buoyant Capital estimates (Sep-2026 bank model). Gross NPA and CET1 not forecast beyond the model's capital schedule. Estimate columns (E) are in green italics.

Consolidated where reported · standalone not separately available in this source
Income statement (annual)
₹ crore unless %FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26TTM Jun-26
Total Income1,01,3441,24,1081,47,0681,55,8851,67,6952,04,6664,07,9954,70,9164,95,4634,95,518
Interest Earned85,2881,05,1611,22,1891,28,5521,35,9361,70,7542,83,6493,36,3673,48,6153,51,819
Interest/Discount on advances/Bills67,65983,73699,0801,02,2991,06,2951,35,7672,17,9792,51,9542,56,1922,58,451
Other Income16,05718,94724,87927,33331,75933,9121,24,3461,34,5491,46,8481,43,700
Interest Expended42,38153,71362,13759,24858,58477,7801,54,1391,83,8941,85,4911,85,408
Operating_expenses23,92727,69533,03635,00140,31251,5341,52,2691,76,6051,81,1741,86,480
PPOP35,03642,70051,89561,63668,79975,3521,01,5871,10,4171,28,7981,23,630
Provisions and Contingencies16,47520,25524,59929,78030,64829,20436,14036,97649,57815,145
Net Profit18,51022,33227,25431,83338,05345,99764,06270,79276,02682,512
Number of shares(Crs)2602725485515555587607651,539—
Dividend Payout Ratio(%)18.2318.295.0311.2622.5923.0523.1223.7831.38—

Consolidated where the company reports consolidated; Tijori Finance normalisation of company filings. Fiscal years end 31 March; "TTM" columns are trailing twelve months to the stated quarter. Quarterly growth is year-on-year (same quarter, prior year). Quarterly balance-sheet and cash-flow data are not disclosed and are not implied. Bank preset: NII, PPOP, provisions, NIM, GNPA, CASA, ROA/ROE; P/B. Industrial leverage ratios suppressed.

Operating metrics

Sector metrics with history

Cost To Income Ratio

39.20% 2026-06

CASA Ratio

32.30% 2026-06

Credit Deposit Ratio

96.53% 2026-06

Fresh Slippages - Quarterly

8,000.00Crs 2026-06

Capital to Risks Assets Ratio (CRAR)

19.60% 2026-06

Net Interest Margin

3.26% 2026-06
Ratios

Sector-appropriate ratios

RatioFY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26
Gross NPA (%)1.051.301.361.261.321.171.121.241.331.15
CASA Ratio (%)48.0443.4842.3642.1946.0848.1344.3738.1434.7434.07
Net Interest Margin (%)4.174.044.153.953.973.823.923.403.663.51
Return On Assets (%)1.851.861.871.901.881.951.982.001.741.70
Credit Deposit Ratio (%)91.0488.7994.2291.0588.8791.2088.28108.00101.0098.42
ROE (%)18.4118.4317.0516.5416.5016.7017.2417.6415.1214.41
EPS14.9117.8320.5024.8528.8734.3141.2242.1646.2649.39
P/E24.1926.5228.2517.3425.8621.4219.5317.1719.7714.82
Price to Book Value4.034.484.112.683.923.303.122.422.701.94
Book Value91,794.001,09,599.001,53,673.001,76,359.002,09,810.002,47,326.002,89,438.004,56,395.005,21,789.005,86,059.00

Bank preset: NII, PPOP, provisions, NIM, GNPA, CASA, ROA/ROE; P/B. Industrial leverage ratios suppressed. Suppressed for this preset: EV/EBITDA, Net Debt, Interest Coverage, Debt to Equity, Operating Profit Margin, Working Capital, Cash Conversion, Inventory, Receivable, Payable.