NSE: RKFORGE· AutomobileCyclical · Aug 26Small cap
Ramkrishna Forgings
Cyclical: post write-off recovery
- Last close
- ₹714.65
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- +1.6% · −4.9%
- price-only
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 19
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p57
What the business is
Approved description
Ramkrishna Forgings is a Jamshedpur-based forgings maker (one of India's largest) supplying axle, transmission and chassis forgings mainly to commercial-vehicle OEMs in India, North America and Europe, and diversifying into railways (51:49 forged-wheel JV with Titagarh, 2.28 lakh wheels/yr, 20-year Indian Railways contract), castings, oil & gas, passenger-vehicle and non-ferrous aerospace forgings. Exports were 32% of Q1FY27 revenue (N. America Rs 222 cr, Europe Rs 128 cr); capacity utilisation ~68%.
Why we own it · 5 approved reasons
- 01Earnings trough is behind: Q1FY27 EBITDA margin rebounded to 18.0% (from 13-15% through FY26) and PAT nearly quadrupled to Rs 47 cr; management guides exports to ~35% of FY27 revenue and 40% by FY28 after a 19.9% export fall in FY26.
- 02Railway wheel JV (51% RKFL / 49% Titagarh, Gummudipoondi) started production in Aug-2026 with 2.28 lakh wheel capacity, ~Rs 2,000 cr investment and a 20-year Indian Railways offtake (first year 40,000 wheels scaling to 80,000) - a non-CV, annuity-type earnings stream.
- 03Operating leverage: Rs 1,500-1,700 cr capex over two years is only 68% utilised; management targets 70-80% utilisation by FY27, which drives Buoyant's PE compression from 181x FY27e to 37.8x FY28e.
- 04Diversification away from CVs: PV order wins Rs 228 cr and 2W Rs 50 cr in Q1FY27, castings ramp-up, and new non-ferrous forgings for aerospace/semiconductor; automotive to be 70-75% of revenue in 3-4 years.
- 05Cheaper than forging peers on recovery earnings: 37.8x FY28e vs Bharat Forge 93.5x TTM and Happy Forgings 64x TTM.
Price
Reference close, with results-period markers
Close as of 29 Sept 2026
- 1Q Sep-25 end · 30 Sept 2025
- 2Q Dec-25 end · 31 Dec 2025
- 3Q Mar-26 end · 31 Mar 2026
- 4Q Jun-26 end · 30 Jun 2026
Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution). Price-only series (split-adjusted; dividends excluded). Gaps are non-trading days.
1D
+1.6%
28 Sept 2026
1W
−0.2%
22 Sept 2026
1M
−4.9%
28 Aug 2026
3M
+27.9%
29 Jun 2026
6M
+46.5%
27 Mar 2026
1Y
+37.5%
29 Sept 2025
Buoyant Screener
Quality score, technicals and Buoyant Score
Computing the scorecard…
Results centre
Latest quarter · Q Jun-26
| Line (₹ cr) | Q Jun-26 | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 1,217 | +19.9% | 0.0% |
| Operating Profit | 218 | +46.3% | +4.8% |
| Net Profit | 47 | +297.6% | −16.2% |
Implication for thesisBroadly unchanged · per 8 Sep 2026 reviewQ1FY27 (Jun-26): revenue 1,217 (+19.8% YoY), PAT 47 (+298.0%)
Reported vs internal estimate: internal quarterly estimates are not in the supplied package; consensus feed not licensed. YoY/QoQ per PRD §12.5 (transitions, not %, on non-positive bases).
Key facts
Position and valuation context
2.1%
Weight, 31 Jul 2026
Aug rank 19 · Cyclical
₹11,411 cr
Market cap, July 2026 research sheet
Tijori latest: 13,049 Cr
181.0x
P/E FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 37.8x
2.4%
ROE FY27E · Buoyant
FY28E 7.5%
122.0x
P/E trailing (Tijori)
2.18%
ROE latest FY (Tijori)
ROCE 6.47%
General industrial/consumer/IT preset: growth, margins, ROCE/ROIC, working capital, FCF, net debt; P/E, EV/EBITDA.
Investment case and valuation
Valuation range
No headline target on this page; the book quotes the thesis and the risk rather than a target.
₹706
Price (2026-09-07)
181.0x / 37.8x
FY27E / FY28E P/E (Buoyant sheet)
2.4%
FY27E ROE (Buoyant sheet)
112.0x
Trailing P/E
3.9x
Price / book
n.a.
EPS CAGR FY26–28E
Next catalysts · material risks
What we watch
Catalysts
- First commercial wheel dispatches from the Gummudipoondi JV (production started Aug-2026) and revenue recognition from Q2/Q3FY27.
- Q2FY27 results (Nov-2026): sustaining 17-18% EBITDA margin and 70%+ utilisation would confirm the FY28 earnings normalisation.
- Closure of the independent inventory root-cause study and a clean FY27 audit opinion; Rs 204.75 cr promoter warrant conversion showing promoter commitment.
Key risks
- Governance: Rs 220.5 cr inventory shortages (net Rs 202.6 cr, 6.73% of net worth) were discovered in the FY25 physical count (disclosed 26-Apr-2025); auditors S.R. Batliboi / S.K. Naredi gave a modified opinion on FY25; a root-cause report was pending - any further findings would hit credibility.
- Leverage rising: FY26 net debt +17% to Rs 1,639 cr (ND/E 0.50x), finance cost +20% to Rs 176 cr and a Rs 42 cr ECL provision on receivables; screener flags low interest coverage.
- Slow CV cycle (FY27 M&HCV +1-3% per ICRA) and US tariff uncertainty could delay the export recovery on which the 35-40% export-mix target depends.
Sources: · fundamentals Tijori Finance (company filings), pulled locally via MCP batch; not licensed for redistribution · prices Yahoo Finance chart API (unlicensed reference data; not for redistribution).