Cyclical: post write-off recovery
| Peer | Status | P/E | ROE | Mkt cap | Why we do not hold it (approved text) | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramkrishna Forgings | Held | 122 | 2.18% | 13,049 Cr | Cyclical: post write-off recovery | |
| Bharat Forge | Not held | n/a | n/a | n/a | Bharat Forge trades at 93.5x TTM PE / 9.8x P/B with ROE 12% and a Rs 90 cr Q1FY27 loss on Rs 7,309 cr debt; RKFL at 3.9x P/B offers more torque to a CV/export recovery plus the railway wheel option. | Screener · Tijori |
| Happy Forgings | Not held | n/a | n/a | n/a | Happy Forgings is the higher-quality name (ROE 15%, net debt Rs 330 cr, Q1 PAT +42%) but is priced for it at 64x TTM PE and 9.9x P/B vs RKFL 3.9x P/B; RKFL is the mean-reversion trade, Happy the compounder. | Screener · Tijori |
Peer numbers are shown only where the peer is in the security master (fundamentals pulled); "n/a" otherwise — a peer is not added to the data pull without a research request. Reasons are quoted from the one-pager (8 Sep 2026).
Maruti is the PV leader but at 30x prices a recovery that CNG/hybrid mix has already delivered, and it is the most exposed to small-car weakness; Tata Motors is a JLR story; M&M is the best-run OEM but at 30x+ after a 3x move we prefer Bajaj's export optionality and net cash. Hero MotoCorp is losing share to scooters and EVs; TVS and Eicher are great franchises at 40–45x. Among components, Bharat Forge carries a defence multiple and Motherson a European-auto cycle we do not want.
All sectors we avoid or underweight →Bajaj Auto (1.6%, Value): the most profitable two-wheeler company in the world (20% EBITDA margin, 30% ROE), exports to 100+ countries, a 45%+ three-wheeler share, and a multiple (34x/24x FY27E/28E) below Eicher and TVS despite comparable growth. RK Forgings (2.1%, Cyclical): a top-three global CV forging supplier whose FY26 earnings were wiped out by a ~₹270 crore inventory discrepancy — the fix is done, the customers stayed, and FY28E P/E is 38x on trough recovery. Varroc (0.8%, Cyclical): a two-wheeler lighting and electronics supplier with an 80% domestic 2W share of business, net debt now under 0.5x and margins recovering to 10%.