Ramkrishna Forgings

Cyclical: post write-off recovery

Last close: ₹714.65; 29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M: +1.6% · −4.9%; price-only
Weight: 2.1%; 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 19
Thesis review: 8 Sep 2026; Why We Own, p57

Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗

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SWOT

Strengths · Weaknesses · Opportunities · Threats

Draft

Strengths

Earnings trough is behind: Q1FY27 EBITDA margin rebounded to 18.0% (from 13-15% through FY26) and PAT nearly quadrupled to Rs 47 cr; management guides exports to ~35% of FY27 revenue and 40% by FY28 after a 19.9% export fall in FY26.
Railway wheel JV (51% RKFL / 49% Titagarh, Gummudipoondi) started production in Aug-2026 with 2.28 lakh wheel capacity, ~Rs 2,000 cr investment and a 20-year Indian Railways offtake (first year 40,000 wheels scaling to 80,000) - a non-CV, annuity-type earnings stream.
Operating leverage: Rs 1,500-1,700 cr capex over two years is only 68% utilised; management targets 70-80% utilisation by FY27, which drives Buoyant's PE compression from 181x FY27e to 37.8x FY28e.
Diversification away from CVs: PV order wins Rs 228 cr and 2W Rs 50 cr in Q1FY27, castings ramp-up, and new non-ferrous forgings for aerospace/semiconductor; automotive to be 70-75% of revenue in 3-4 years.

Weaknesses

vs Bharat Forge: Bharat Forge trades at 93.5x TTM PE / 9.8x P/B with ROE 12% and a Rs 90 cr Q1FY27 loss on Rs 7,309 cr debt; RKFL at 3.9x P/B offers more torque to a CV/export recovery plus the railway wheel option.
vs Happy Forgings: Happy Forgings is the higher-quality name (ROE 15%, net debt Rs 330 cr, Q1 PAT +42%) but is priced for it at 64x TTM PE and 9.9x P/B vs RKFL 3.9x P/B; RKFL is the mean-reversion trade, Happy the compounder.

Opportunities

First commercial wheel dispatches from the Gummudipoondi JV (production started Aug-2026) and revenue recognition from Q2/Q3FY27.
Q2FY27 results (Nov-2026): sustaining 17-18% EBITDA margin and 70%+ utilisation would confirm the FY28 earnings normalisation.
Closure of the independent inventory root-cause study and a clean FY27 audit opinion; Rs 204.75 cr promoter warrant conversion showing promoter commitment.

Threats

Governance: Rs 220.5 cr inventory shortages (net Rs 202.6 cr, 6.73% of net worth) were discovered in the FY25 physical count (disclosed 26-Apr-2025); auditors S.R. Batliboi / S.K. Naredi gave a modified opinion on FY25; a root-cause report was pending - any further findings would hit credibility.
Leverage rising: FY26 net debt +17% to Rs 1,639 cr (ND/E 0.50x), finance cost +20% to Rs 176 cr and a Rs 42 cr ECL provision on receivables; screener flags low interest coverage.
Slow CV cycle (FY27 M&HCV +1-3% per ICRA) and US tariff uncertainty could delay the export recovery on which the 35-40% export-mix target depends.

Compiled from the approved one-pager (Why We Own What We Own, 8 Sep 2026): why-we-own → strengths, catalysts → opportunities, key risks → threats, peer caveats → weaknesses. Editorial mapping pending review. · author: compiled from the approved one-pager

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Internal evidence

Buoyant sources for this name

August 2026 top-30 disclosure — rank 19, Automobile, Cyclical. Buoyant AIF I Top 30 Holdings - Aug 2026.pdf
One-pager, "Why We Own What We Own" — p57, 8 Sep 2026. Buoyant_Why_We_Own_What_We_Own_Sep2026.pdf (portfolio as of 31 July 2026)
Sales playbook, Aug 2026 — holdings matrix (PMS/AIF I/AIF II, $31 Jul 2026). Buoyant_Capital_Sales_Playbook_Aug_2026_Full_Holdings.pdf

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Ownership

Shareholding · Jun'26

Promoter	43.39%
Indian Promoters	43.39%
RIDDHI PORTFOLIO PRIVATE LIMITED	34.74%
MAA CHANDI FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED (Formerly Ramkrishna Rail and Infrastructure Private Limited)	3.57%
CHAITANYA JALAN	1.67%
NARESH JALAN	1.52%
RASHMI JALAN	1.15%
NARESH JALAN HUF	0.74%
RADHIKA JALAN	0.01%
MAHABIR PRASAD JALAN	0.00%
MAHABIR PRASAD JALAN HUF	0.00%
RIDDHI JALAN	0.00%
Public Shareholding	56.61%
Institutions	25.49%