Banking.

Banking is India's largest single profit pool in the listed market, intermediating between ₹243 lakh crore of deposits and ₹195 lakh crore of loans and earning the spread (the FISIM convention) rather than interest itself, generating an estimated ₹13.5 lakh crore of GVA in FY26 (4.3% of national GVA) while listed banks alone captured ₹4.06 lakh crore of profit, 21.3% of all listed-company profit. The system emerged from the FY15–FY26 corporate bad-loan cycle unusually clean (gross NPAs down from 11.2% in March 2018 to 1.8% in March 2026) and unusually profitable (ROA ~1.3%, ROE ~14%), with market share continuing to shift from state-owned banks (73% of credit in FY05, ~53% in FY26) to private banks (18% to 39% over the same period). Growth is driven by nominal GDP, rising household leverage (personal loans now 32% of credit) and deepening credit/GDP (56%, still below regional peers), but the FY26 profit pool sits at a cyclical high with credit costs near zero even as credit growth (18.3% y/y) outruns deposit growth (~10%), pushing the credit-deposit ratio to a record 82.5% and setting up margin compression and, eventually, higher credit costs. The base case sees GVA reaching ₹20.0 lakh crore by FY30 and ₹32.5 lakh crore by FY35, broadly holding its ~4.2% share of national GVA.

Estimated industry GVA (FISIM basis)

13.5 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Gross income pool (interest + fee income, all SCBs)

28 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Profit pool (SCB PAT + cooperatives)

4.5 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Listed banks' PAT

4.06 ₹ lakh crore · FY26

Listed bank market capitalisation

56.3 ₹ lakh crore · Jul-2026

Spot P/E, listed banks

13.9 × · Jul-2026

Employment, direct in SCBs

1.7 million · FY26

Employment incl. cooperatives/RRBs

2.0 million · FY26