UltraTech Cement
Price-setter and consolidator
- Last close
- ₹10,829.00
- 29 Sept 2026 · reference
- 1D · 1M
- −1.8% · −6.6%
- price-only
- Weight
- 2.8%
- 31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 13
- Thesis review
- 8 Sep 2026
- Why We Own, p50
Approved description
India's largest cement producer (Aditya Birla group) with 200.1 mtpa of domestic grey-cement capacity and 205.5 mtpa globally after absorbing India Cements and Kesoram's cement business; it also runs the country's largest ready-mix concrete network (Q1FY27 RMC revenue Rs 2,235 cr, +22%) and white cement/putty (Birla White). With ~41 mt of quarterly volumes it holds roughly a quarter of Indian cement sales and is targeting 242.5 mtpa by FY28; it is also entering wires and cables (Rs 1,800 cr investment, launch Q3FY27).
- 01Scale leader with 205.5 mtpa (200.1 mtpa domestic) heading to 212.7 mtpa in FY27 and 242.5 mtpa by FY28 (~Rs 16,000 cr capex), which underpins a 9% volume CAGR to FY28 (Nirmal Bang) against ICRA's 6-7% industry growth - i.e. continued market-share gains.
- 02Q1FY27 showed 13.1% domestic volume growth (UltraTech-branded +21.3%) with EBITDA/tonne of Rs 1,214 versus an ICRA industry estimate of Rs 880-930/t for FY27, demonstrating a cost and pricing premium over the sector.
- 03Earnings recovery is under way: FY26 PAT rose 36% to Rs 8,188 cr on a 19% OPM (17% in FY25), and Q1FY27 PAT grew 17%; ROE at 11.1% is depressed by acquisition goodwill and the capex cycle and should rise as India Cements (Q1 normalised PAT Rs 52 cr) and Kesoram assets are turned around.
- 04Cost levers: green power mix at 47%, 434 MW of WHRS, power cost down 10% YoY per tonne and 8-9 km lead-distance reduction, plus the GST cut on cement from 28% to 18% (late 2025) supporting demand.
- 05Balance sheet remains manageable with borrowings of Rs 23,755 cr against Rs 76,624 cr of equity (gross D/E ~0.31) despite two acquisitions, and a 2.1% dividend yield (51% payout) provides support.
Reference close, with results-period markers
- 1Q Sep-25 end · 30 Sept 2025
- 2Q Dec-25 end · 31 Dec 2025
- 3Q Mar-26 end · 31 Mar 2026
- 4Q Jun-26 end · 30 Jun 2026
Quality score, technicals and Buoyant Score
Computing the scorecard…
Latest quarter · Q Jun-26
| Line (₹ cr) | Q Jun-26 | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 24,648 | +15.9% | −4.5% |
| Operating Profit | 5,015 | +13.7% | −10.4% |
| Net Profit | 2,599 | +16.8% | −12.9% |
Reported vs internal estimate: internal quarterly estimates are not in the supplied package; consensus feed not licensed. YoY/QoQ per PRD §12.5 (transitions, not %, on non-positive bases).
Position and valuation context
General industrial/consumer/IT preset: growth, margins, ROCE/ROIC, working capital, FCF, net debt; P/E, EV/EBITDA.
Sell-side targets are third-party views, not Buoyant's; the upside is recomputed on our reference close, so it differs from the figure printed at the broker's price date.
Valuation range
No headline target on this page; the book quotes the thesis and the risk rather than a target.
What we watch
- Q2FY27 results (Oct-2026): evidence that post-monsoon price hikes (Sep-2026) offset the guided Rs 130-140/t cost inflation.
- Commissioning of 15.9 mtpa of additions in FY27 (to 212.7 mtpa) and the Q3FY27 launch of the wires-and-cables business.
- Turnaround milestones at India Cements/Kesoram (normalised PAT positive in Q1FY27) and any further consolidation in the South.
- Cost inflation: management guided Rs 130-140/t of sequential cost increase in Q2FY27 (fuel +5%, raw material +9% YoY in Q1) which can erode EBITDA/tonne if monsoon-season pricing is soft.
- Industry capacity glut: 160-170 mt of additions over FY26-28 against 30-40 mt of annual incremental demand keeps utilisation near 70% and limits pricing power, especially in the South where India Cements' assets sit.
- Valuation and low ROE: at 38x TTM and 4.4x book with ROE of ~11%, the stock has little cushion if FY27 volume growth slips below double digits; screener flags a low 3-year ROE of 10.7%.