NSE: ULTRACEMCO· Building MaterialsCore · Aug 26Large cap

UltraTech Cement

Price-setter and consolidator

Last close
₹10,829.00
29 Sept 2026 · reference
1D · 1M
−1.8% · −6.6%
price-only
Weight
2.8%
31 Jul 2026 · Aug rank 13
Thesis review
8 Sep 2026
Why We Own, p50
Coverage owner: Research (per book); latest results Q Jun-26Screener ↗Tijori ↗NSE ↗
Map

What must happen → what could break it → what we watch

Catalysts · 3
  • Q2FY27 results (Oct-2026): evidence that post-monsoon price hikes (Sep-2026) offset the guided Rs 130-140/t cost inflation.
    C1
  • Commissioning of 15.9 mtpa of additions in FY27 (to 212.7 mtpa) and the Q3FY27 launch of the wires-and-cables business.
    C2
  • Turnaround milestones at India Cements/Kesoram (normalised PAT positive in Q1FY27) and any further consolidation in the South.
    C3
Material risks · 3
  • Cost inflation: management guided Rs 130-140/t of sequential cost increase in Q2FY27 (fuel +5%, raw material +9% YoY in Q1) which can erode EBITDA/tonne if monsoon-season pricing is soft.
    R1
  • Industry capacity glut: 160-170 mt of additions over FY26-28 against 30-40 mt of annual incremental demand keeps utilisation near 70% and limits pricing power, especially in the South where India Cements' assets sit.
    R2
  • Valuation and low ROE: at 38x TTM and 4.4x book with ROE of ~11%, the stock has little cushion if FY27 volume growth slips below double digits; screener flags a low 3-year ROE of 10.7%.
    R3
Live monitors
  • Valuation vs approved target
    No target stated
  • Latest reported quarter
    Q Jun-26
  • Results-driven thresholds
    Awaiting approved numbers

Catalysts and risks are the approved one-pager text in full; the register below adds owners and review dates. Monitors read from the price and fundamentals feeds.

Risks as a decision framework

Material risks

Risk register
#Risk (approved text)Owner · next review
01Cost inflation: management guided Rs 130-140/t of sequential cost increase in Q2FY27 (fuel +5%, raw material +9% YoY in Q1) which can erode EBITDA/tonne if monsoon-season pricing is soft.Research · post 2QFY27
02Industry capacity glut: 160-170 mt of additions over FY26-28 against 30-40 mt of annual incremental demand keeps utilisation near 70% and limits pricing power, especially in the South where India Cements' assets sit.Research · post 2QFY27
03Valuation and low ROE: at 38x TTM and 4.4x book with ROE of ~11%, the stock has little cushion if FY27 volume growth slips below double digits; screener flags a low 3-year ROE of 10.7%.Research · post 2QFY27

Exposure mechanism, impact and mitigants are as written in the book. Leading indicators and numeric triggers not stated in the approved text remain research tasks rather than being invented.

Catalysts

Observable events

  • 01Q2FY27 results (Oct-2026): evidence that post-monsoon price hikes (Sep-2026) offset the guided Rs 130-140/t cost inflation.
  • 02Commissioning of 15.9 mtpa of additions in FY27 (to 212.7 mtpa) and the Q3FY27 launch of the wires-and-cables business.
  • 03Turnaround milestones at India Cements/Kesoram (normalised PAT positive in Q1FY27) and any further consolidation in the South.
Monitors

Live monitors from available data

  • ClearValuation exceeding the approved range: reference close 10,829 vs base target not stated.
  • DataLatest reported quarter in fundamentals: Q Jun-26. Results-driven monitors (growth below thesis threshold, margin, credit cost) need approved numeric thresholds; none in the book.
  • DataInput-cost and capital-allocation monitors require licensed commodity/filings feeds — not configured.